Victory Chronicles-DAY 1213

Russia launched a barrage of drones overnight on Odesa, striking at least 11 locations and causing widespread destruction. One civilian was killed and 14 injured, including three rescue workers.

At least 10 Shahed-type drones struck the city, igniting large-scale fires across residential areas. A four-story apartment building was completely engulfed in flames. Firefighters rescued three people and evacuated another six. During the rescue operation, part of the structure collapsed, injuring three firefighters.

A 23-story high-rise was severely damaged, with fires engulfing its upper floors. Over 600 residents were evacuated, including two children rescued from a blocked apartment. Several other residential buildings, cars, and local infrastructure – including a school, shops, a garage, and a gas pipeline – were also hit.

Emergency services continue search and rescue operations, with reports suggesting one person may still remain trapped under rubble.

Russia loses 1,090 troops, 46 artillery systems in one day. Russia sustained 1,090 military personnel casualties on June 19, along with 46 artillery systems and more than 200 other military assets, Ukraine’s General Staff reported on June 20. Since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia’s estimated losses have surpassed 1 million personnel killed, wounded or missing. Total equipment losses include nearly 11,000 tanks, over 29,000 artillery systems, and more than 41,000 drones. 

Russian drones strike Kharkiv and suburbs: four civilians injured, major fires reported. Russian forces launched a massive drone attack on Kharkiv – Ukraine’s second biggest city – and nearby areas overnight on 20 June, hitting residential and industrial sites in the Shevchenkivskyi and Osnovianskyi districts and in Kharkiv Oblast.

Four civilians were injured, including two underage girls aged 12 and 17 years, who required medical assistance. The strike caused fires at four locations: the roof of a six-story unfinished building (1,000 square meters / 10,764 square feet), a small outbuilding (10 square meters / 108 square feet), and three warehouses at a civilian facility with a total area of 1,500 square meters (16,146 square feet). Residential apartment blocks and civilian vehicles were also damaged in the attacks.

Exclusive footage shows latest Ukrainian POW exchange, including Mariupol defenders. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) and the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War have released exclusive footage from the latest prisoner exchange with Russia.

According to the SBU, the operation was coordinated by the Joint Center for the Search and Release of Prisoners of War, the Coordination Headquarters, and other authorized bodies acting on President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s directive.

Footage released by Ukrainian authorities captures the emotional return of soldiers, many of whom had spent more than three years in captivity. According to officials, most of those freed had defended the Donetsk regional Azov Sea coastal city of Mariupol during its 86-day siege by Russia..

Key Takeaways:

• The West has failed to convince Kremlin rulerVladimir Putin to reevaluate his theory of victory in Ukraine in the past year. Putin’s public statements indicate that he continues to assess that Russian forces will be able to win a war of attrition by sustaining gradual advances along the frontline indefinitely.
• Putin’s theory of victory is predicated on critical assumptions about Ukraine’s capabilities and continued Western support for Ukraine – conditions that the West can still change.
• Putin continued Russia’s reflexive control campaign that aims to deter Western provisions of military aid to Ukraine and NATO rearmament but appears to be adapting this campaign for different audiences.
• Putin explicitly stated that he will not sign a peace agreement with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
• Putin used his meeting with international journalists to reinject longstanding Kremlin rhetorical lines into the media space, as ISW previously forecasted.
• Russian officials appear to be struggling to posture Russia’s economic strength amid increasing signs of a slowing Russian economy.
• Ukraine and Russia conducted the fifth prisoner of war (POW) exchange in accordance with the June 2 Istanbul agreements, amid reports that Russia artificially inflated the number of bodies released to Ukraine in previous killed in action (KIA) exchanges.
• Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast. Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka.

In Memoriam: Oleksandr Mashlai, a hero of Ukraine’s defense forces

Sgt. Oleksandr Mashlai, known by the call sign “Got,” was killed on May 6, 2024, near the village of Blahodatne in Donetsk Oblast. He died while carrying out a combat mission, suffering fatal injuries from a strike by a Russian Lancet drone. He was 40.

Mashlai was born in the village of Hoshcha in Rivne Oblast and studied at the local gymnasium. He earned a degree in ecology from the National University of Water and Environmental Engineering. He lived in Lutsk, Volyn Oblast, where he worked as the editor-in-chief of the sociopolitical newspaper and later the magazine Pravyi Postup.

A lifelong patriot, Mashlai was raised in the Ukrainian scouting organization Plast. He was an active member of the Youth Nationalist Congress and co-coordinator of the PORA! civic campaign in Rivne in 2004. He also helped organize youth patriotic camps and outdoor strategy games. In 2005, he joined fellow activists from the National Alliance at the opposition rally “Chernobyl Way” in Minsk, after which he was sentenced by a Belarusian court to 10 days in detention.

Following the full-scale Russian invasion, Mashlai volunteered to serve on the front lines. He became a signalman in the 25th Assault Battalion of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade “Magura” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

“Oleksandr was the best husband and father to our children,” his wife Valentyna said. “We miss him deeply. We did everything together—biking, hiking in the forest, going to the movies. He knew how to do everything and always had the answers. I miss his sense of humor, his support, and his protection. He often said a great war was coming and that it was up to our generation to end it, so our children would never have to fight or be scattered across the world. We had many dreams and plans, and he still had so much to give to Ukraine.”

Mashlai was buried with honors at the Alley of Glory in the cemetery of the village of Harazdzha in Volyn. He is survived by his wife Valentyna and their sons, Bohdan and Orest.

*Mashlai’s story on the Heroes Memorial – a platform for stories about the fallen defenders of Ukraine.

• Russia’s war-fueled economy is running on empty, Central Bank chief warns
• NYT: American who came to help clear rubble dies during Russian attack on Kyiv
• A number of EU states want to close the Schengen zone to Russians who fought against Ukraine
• Zelenskyy on Russia and Iran: Aggressive regimes must not be allowed to unite
• FT: Trump left G7 summit early because of Zelenskyy and Macron