Victory Chronicles-DAY 1304

Ukraine’s military says Russia has massed forces near the northeastern city of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region and is attempting to seize the strategic stronghold through relentless small-unit assaults. 

The 10th Army Corps of Ukraine’s Ground Forces reported Sept. 19 that Russian forces have concentrated near the villages of Radkivka and Holubivka, damaging civilian infrastructure in the process, including a gas pipeline that flooded the area. 

Moscow’s forces have repeatedly attempted to cross the Oskil River in boats, but Ukrainian artillery and first-person view (FPV) drones have destroyed most of the makeshift crossings. 

Kupiansk is a railway hub about 97 kilometers (67 miles) and has been a front-line flashpoint since Ukraine liberated it in September 2022 during its sweeping counteroffensive. Its railway links are crucial for supplying forces in eastern Ukraine, making control of the city a high-value objective for Russia. 

Ukrainian troops are carrying out counter-sabotage measures in forests, residential areas and the city’s outskirts. Captured Russians have described a lack of clear command and coordination, according to Ukraine’s military.

Russian fossil fuel exports sink by nearly 20 percent after Ukrainian drone strikes. Russia’s seaborne fuel exports fell sharply in the first half of September after waves of Ukrainian drone strikes damaged oil infrastructure, Russian media reported.

In the first half of September, Russia shipped 3.3 million metric tons of fuel abroad, down by 18 percent from the same period last year and 16 percent from July’s average, according to data cited by the Moscow-based Kommersant newspaper.

The steepest decline came in Sept. 11–15, when exports from the export port of Primorsk that is situated on the Gulf of Finland in the Leningrad Region of northwestern Russia, normally handles about 300,000 barrels of diesel a day — were temporarily halted after a drone strike damaged one of its terminals, Reuters reported.

The port is located a straight distance of 500-550 miles from Ukraine’s nearest state border. 

Russia’s refining capacity has also been hit hard. By late August, drone attacks had knocked out an estimated 1.1 million barrels per day, or 17 percent of the country’s processing power. On Sept. 16, refining fell to 4.75 million barrels per day, its lowest level since April 2022, analysts said.

War spillover: Russian drone debris found in Latvia highlights risk for NATO states. Fragments of a Russian drone washed up on a beach in the western part of Latvia’s Black Sea coast. 

Latvia’s armed forces said Sept. 18 that fragments in the country’s west. It further heightened concerns about spillover from Russia’s unprovoked war against Ukraine into NATO territory.

The military reported that the wreckage appeared to be the tail section of a Gerbera drone, a decoy model used by Russia. An ordnance disposal team confirmed the fragment carried no explosives. Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds said the find was consistent with a “Gerbera” decoy drone and posed no immediate danger. 

The discovery follows similar incidents in neighboring NATO countries, including Poland and Romania, where stray Russian drones and debris have been documented since Moscow escalated its aerial campaign against Ukraine. The repeated incidents highlight the potential for Russia’s war to destabilize border regions and test the defense Alliance’s security guarantees.

Ukrainian intelligence troops destroy Russian transport vehicle on Black Sea spit. Ukrainian military intelligence forces carried out a nighttime raid Sept. 19 on the Tendrivska Spit, a narrow sandbar off the coast of southern Kherson Oblast, and destroyed a Russian DT-10 “Vityaz” tracked transport vehicle.

The Defense Intelligence of Ukraine said the operation was conducted by fighters from its Viking maritime operations center. During the landing, Ukrainian special operators set up mine traps along the spit. The Russian vehicle later hit one of them and was destroyed. The DT-10 is a heavy-duty multipurpose carrier used by Russian troops to move soldiers, weapons and supplies across difficult terrain. 

Key Takeaways

1. The Russian military command continues to signal its commitment to Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory that posits that Russia can win a war of attrition against Ukraine.
2. ISW continues to assess that a Russian victory is not inevitable, however, and that Ukraine and the West can leverage several key Russian weaknesses to force Putin to change his calculus and engage in good-faith negotiations.
3. The Kremlin continues to demonstrate its commitment to its original war aims in Ukraine.
4. The Kremlin is also attempting to manipulate the Trump administration into normalizing U.S.-Russian bilateral relations without concluding the war in Ukraine – contrary to Trump’s desired timeline of working on bilateral relations after concluding a peace in Ukraine.
5. The Kremlin appears to be conducting a coordinated information campaign threatening Finland.
6. Lithuanian authorities connected Russian military intelligence to several incidents of arson in Europe in late July 2024 that were likely part of Russia’s ongoing hybrid warfare campaign that aims to sow fear and discord within Europe.
7. Ukraine and Poland agreed on joint drone development and training mechanisms following the Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace on September 9 to 10.
8. The Kremlin will likely introduce a quota to systematically appoint hand-selected veterans of the war in Ukraine to positions in municipal, regional, and federal government in support of the Kremlin’s long-term campaign to militarize Russian society.
9. Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin reportedly extended Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov’s military service for five more years, demonstrating how Putin continues to retain an aging cadre of loyalists despite his stated efforts to raise a new, younger elite.
10. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman and Velykomykhailivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

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• Trump: US will help secure peace after Russia’s war in Ukraine
• Bloomberg: Under pressure from Trump, the EU wants to speed up the transition away from Russian LNG
• Some US weapons funded by NATO already in Ukraine, more on the way