Victory Chronicles-DAY 1316

Russian troops seized roughly half as much land in Ukraine in September as they did in the month before, according to DeepState, a group of Ukrainian military analysts that tracks the front line. The group said Moscow’s forces captured about 259 square kilometers (100 square miles) last month, the equivalent of a 44 percent drop compared to August and the smallest monthly gain since May.

Overall, Russia controlled 19.04 percent of Ukraine’s territory by the end of September, DeepState reported. More than half of the new ground taken was on the Novopavlivka front in eastern Ukraine, an area analysts called the hottest and most difficult for Ukraine’s defenses.

By contrast, they said Ukrainian troops have held firm around the easternmost Donetsk regional city of Pokrovsk, where dense urban terrain makes assaults far costlier than in open fields. 

Ukraine says Russia has launched nearly 50,000 suicide  since 2022 all-out invasion

Ukraine’s security service reported on Sept. 30 that Russia has fired almost 50,000 Iranian-designed Shahed drones at Ukrainian cities since the full-scale invasion began in 2022. The strikes have killed 253 civilians and injured more than 1,500, according to the Prosecutor General’s Office, which has opened over 1,600 criminal cases that are linked to attacks on civilian sites.  

Officials said they are now working to publicly identify Russian officers linked to the strikes. “Piece by piece, we have gathered this information with the help of intelligence partners,” said Yurii Bielousov, who heads the office’s war crimes unit. He added that prosecutors plan to pursue suspects in absentia, but hope it is only a matter of time before real accountability follows. 

NATO member Norway opens major training camp for Ukrainian troops in Poland. Poland’s Defense Ministry said on Oct. 1 that a new Norwegian-run training center for Ukrainian soldiers has officially opened on Polish soil. Both countries are members of the NATO defense alliance to which Ukraine is aspiring to join.

The facility, called Camp Jomsborg, is located at the Dęba-Lipa training grounds in southeastern Poland and is designed to provide large-scale preparation for Ukraine’s defensive forces.

Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz attended the opening alongside his counterparts from Norway and Estonia, as well as a deputy defense minister from Ukraine. Officials described the project as one of the largest overseas training camps Norway has ever launched and is staffed by hundreds of Norwegian troops.

Exercises at the camp are meant to replicate battlefield conditions as closely as possible, starting with modules on combat stress and coping tools. Instructors say the program is dual– Norwegians share NATO-standard tactics while also gleaning knowledge from Ukrainian soldiers’ hard-won experience at the front against invading Russian forces.

Russian missiles and bombs hit Kharkiv, injuring at least six civilians

Russia launched a combined strike of ballistic missiles and guided bombs on Ukraine’s second most populous city that is located in the northeastern city of Kharkiv overnight on Oct. 1, injuring at least six civilians, local officials said. City Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported explosions in the city’s Kyivskyi and Saltivskyi districts, where single-family homes, garages and a market caught fire.

Among the wounded were an 80-year-old woman and two men aged 34 and 27 years, regional Gov. Oleh Syniehubov said. All suffered blast injuries and were hospitalized. The casualty count has been rising throughout the night as rescuers sift through the wreckage.

Ukraine’s Air Force confirmed that both ballistic missiles and so-called KABs – large guided aerial bombs – were used in the aerial attack. Kharkiv had  a prewar population of about 1.4 million, and lies just 25 miles from the Russian state border. 

Key Takeaways

• Russia and Belarus may conduct special forces sabotage operations against critical infrastructure in Poland and launch additional drone incursions and blame Ukraine.
• Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians may call for protests in the coming days and weeks before Moldovan authorities validate the results of the September 28 parliamentary elections.
• Ukraine’s European allies continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including to support Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB).
• European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating near European military and economic facilities as Ukraine launched efforts to train its European allies in counter-drone tactics.
• Ukrainian forces advanced near Borova and Lyman. Russian forces advanced near Borova, Lyman, Siversk, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical effort area.

• General Staff chief: Ukraine has completed transition to corps-based structure
• Bloomberg: G7 moves closer to joint strengthening of sanctions against Russia
• Sweden and Finland suggest using frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine
• Austria expels Russian embassy worker over Austrian energy giant espionage scandal
• Ukraine secures 4 billion euros ($4.3 billion) EU loan from frozen Russian assets
• Finnish president: Trump to go from ‘carrot’ to stick’ in dealing with Putin