Victory Chronicles-DAY 1331

Overnight on Oct 16, Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SOF) targeted the Saratov oil refinery in Russia’s Saratov Oblast, according to the SOF press service and Ukraine’s General Staff.

The Saratov refinery isone of Russia’s oldest and formerly known as the “Kreking” plant. Located along the Volga River in southeastern Eurasia 280-340 miles from the nearest Ukrainian border, it is part of state-run Rosneft’s portfolio of assets.. It processed 7.2 million tons of oil in 2020 and 4.8 million tons in 2023, and plays a role in supplying Russia’s armed forces.

This marks the second SOF strike on the facility, following a previous attack on September 16, 2025.

More than a quarter of Germans see war with Russia as likely within six months. More than one in four Germans believe a military conflict with Russia is possible in the next six months, according to a new survey by the Ipsos research institute, European Pravda reported.

The survey found that 20 percent of respondents consider a war with Russia “somewhat likely,” while 7 percent see it as “very likely.” 

Meanwhile, 36 percent said such a conflict is “somewhat unlikely,” and 25 percent called it “very unlikely.” Twelve percent said they were unsure.

Demographically, fears of possible war are higher among younger people and women. Among those aged 18-to 39 years, 35 percent said a conflict with Russia in the next half-year is likely, compared with 26 percent of respondents aged 40–59 years and 18 percent of those 60–75 years old. About 33 percent of women expressed such concerns, compared with 21 percent of men.

Supporters of the left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) were the most worried — 41 percent and 31 percent, respectively. Both parties advocate for negotiating with Moscow and easing tensions with Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin.

Ukraine’s energy infrastructure again target of Russian attacks as winter approaches. Starting on Oct. 15, Russian forces carried out a large-scale combined airborne attack on Ukraine’s energy facilities, employing 320 various drones and 37 missiles from both air and ground platforms. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted or neutralized 283 drones and 5 missiles, though several targets were hit, and the assault is still ongoing.

According to the Ukrainian Air Force, as of 10:00 a.m., air defense units had destroyed or suppressed 288 aerial targets — including Shahed and Geran drones, as well as Kh-59 guided missiles. Eighteen Russian missiles were lost from radar tracking, with details still being verified.

Confirmed hits include 14 missiles and 37 drones across 14 locations, while debris from downed weapons fell in two other areas. The main regions that were targeted were Poltava and Kharkiv oblasts.

North Korean UAV teams operating from Kursk help Russian forces target Ukrainian positions. According to Ukraine’s General Staff, Russian occupation forces have been using North Korean personnel based in Russia’s Kursk region to support operations in Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy region. These teams carry out drone reconnaissance to locate Ukrainian positions and assist in adjusting artillery and rocket fire. 

Ukrainian defenders say they’ve intercepted communications showing North Korean drone operators coordinating strikes, including attacks by multiple-launch rocket systems The General Staff attributes Russia’s use of foreign personnel to heavy manpower losses and the stalled offensive in the Sumy region. Ukraine is documenting evidence of foreign involvement, and the General Staff warned such units “will be neutralized in accordance with the laws and rules of warfare.”

Key Takeaways

1. The Kremlin remains committed to its rhetorical effort to dissuade the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine amidst critical policy debates.
2. The Trump administration continues to voice support for additional military support for Ukraine ahead of the Oct. 17 meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
3. The Kremlin continues to advance its messaging strategy designed to separate the United States from Ukraine and Europe to undermine NATO cohesion and support for Ukraine.
4. Dutch officials recently observed unidentified drones operating near a NATO military exercise in Poland that may have disrupted military-grade communication systems, marking the latest incident in a trend of drone incursions across Europe.
5. Ukraine’s European partners announced new military assistance to Ukraine amid the Oct. 15 Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein Format) meeting.
6. European officials report that UK sanctions and NATO joint military operations are inhibiting Russia’s illicit shadow fleet.
7. Russian forces advanced in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast and near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka.

• Politico: Trump infuriated by media portrayal of Alaska summit as “Putin’s triumph”
• The Telegraph: Trump plans to create Ukraine ‘Victory Fund’ using revenue from tariffs on China
• US Treasury secretary: We expect Japan to stop using Russian energy supplies
• Trump urges Putin to stop killing Ukrainians and Russians
• Indian PM assures Trump that his country will stop buying oil from Russia
• NATO develops new weapon for Ukraine to counter Shahed-type drones and guided aerial bombs
• US defense secretary warns Russia of consequences if it fails to end war
• UK imposes sweeping sanctions on Russian oil