Victory Chronicles-DAY 1342

A dam near Russia’s Belgorod started leaking after a reported Ukrainian strike, effectively cutting off Russian military units operating across the border in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, the Ukrainian military reported on Oct. 26.

According to Ukraine’s 16th Army Corps, the damage to the Belgorod Reservoir dam caused water levels to plunge by nearly a meter in a single day, sending torrents down the Siverskyi Donets River and flooding Russian fortifications. 

The resulting surge has disrupted Russian supply lines and stranded several of Moscow’s forward-deployed units on the Ukrainian side near Vovchansk, a key flashpoint in Russia’s latest cross-border advance. 

The Belgorod dam, part of a crucial water system that feeds both civilian infrastructure and military logistics routes in the region, has now become an unexpected choke point. By damaging it, Ukrainian forces have turned geography into a tactical weapon by severing Russian transport corridors and by complicating resupply operations, and undermining defensive networks that rely on stable terrain along the Siverskyi Donets. 

Belgorod regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov confirmed the strike and warned of possible flooding in nearby population centers. Ukrainian officials, meanwhile, said the operation shifts the local balance of power, with flooded trenches and washed-out bridges, thus hampering Russian mobility while improving conditions for Ukrainian counter-fire and maneuver

As for Russian troops in Vovchansk, the dam’s failure underscores a growing vulnerability: the proximity to the border no longer guarantees safety or steady supply. The same river that once offered natural defense now threatens to cut off retreat.

Russian missile strike on Kyiv destroys pharmaceutical firm’s $100 million facility. A Russian airborne strike on Kyiv destroyed the headquarters and warehouse complex of Optima-Pharm on Oct. 25, one of Ukraine’s largest pharmaceutical distributors, causing losses estimated at more than $100 million, according to a company source. The attack hit the Darnytskyi and Desnianskyi districts that are located on the eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River that bisects the capital.  

The projectiles teriggered massive explosions and a fire that continued burning into the next day. Rescue crews used helicopters to contain the blaze at the 29,000-square-meter (312,000-square-foot) site, officials said.

Optima-Pharm, a Ukrainian-Estonian joint venture, has operated for more than 30 years and has 11 branches across the country. This is the second time this year that its facilities have been hit, The first one was in August. The company is a key component of Ukraine’s medical supply chain, ranking among the nation’s top 15 firms by revenue and serves hospitals and pharmacies nationwide.

Russian drone strike hits civilian vehicle in northern Ukraine, injures 10, including two children. A Russian drone struck a passenger van on the Sumy–Bilopillia highway in northern Ukraine on Oct. 26, injuring 10 civilians, including two children, local officials reported. The attack occurred around 4:50 p.m. near the village of Mykolaivka in Sumy Oblast, according to regional authorities.

The van, which was traveling toward the regional capital of Sumy, was engulfed in flames after the strike and completely destroyed Photos released by the regional prosecutor’s office showed the burned-out shell of the civilian transport on the roadside. Officials said two victims, one child and one adult, remain in critical condition. 

Oleh Hryhorov, head of the Sumy Regional Military Administration, condemned the attack as “a deliberate strike on civilians.”

Ukrainian special forces strike Russian fuel depots in occupied Luhansk. Ukrainian special operations troops conducted overnight drone strikes against two Russian fuel and oil depots in the occupied Luhansk region, the country’s Special Operations Forces said on Oct. 27.

The attacks hit a fuel storage site in Starobilsk and an oil terminal in the city of Luhansk. Video released by the unit shows drones striking the depots as they were being filled, setting off powerful explosions and fires visible from several kilometers away. 

The Special Operations Forces said such attacks are part of Ukraine’s broader strategy to disrupt Russia’s supply chains and weaken its front-line operations. 

Key Takeaways

1. Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin and Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov continue to make exaggerated claims of battlefield victories while demonstrating that the Kremlin remains committed to seizing the entirety of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts.
2. Russian milbloggers widely denied Gerasimov’s claims.
3. The Kremlin is exploiting Russia’s recent reliance on infiltration missions and the absence of contiguous front lines in some tactical areas, and the resulting interspersal of forces to make exaggerated battlefield claims.
4. Putin attempted to justify Russia’s slow pace of advance because of Russian concern for civilian safety and casualties.
5. Russia continues to issue explicit nuclear threats as part of a multi-pronged effort seeking to deter continued US pressure on Russia and support for Ukraine.
6. Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO and key Kremlin negotiator Kirill Dmitriev stated outright that Russia has not deviated from its 2021-2022 original war aims and that Russia continues to seek control of all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts.
7. The Russian economy is showing its first signs of stagnation in manufacturing sectors critical to the Russian defense industrial base (DIB).
8. Russian regional authorities continue reducing one-time recruitment payments, supporting ISW’s forecast that Russia may begin compulsory recruitment of reservists in the face of mounting economic strain.
9. Russian forces continue to launch long-range glide bomb strikes against Ukrainian cities.
10. European officials continue to report on Russian hybrid operations in Europe over the past several years.
11. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman and Siversk and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

• FT: Saab ready to open plant in Ukraine for Gripen fighter jets
• CNN: Trump says Putin should focus on ending Ukraine war instead of testing missile
• GUR showed foreign components of the weapons with which the Russians are attacking the Ukrainian energy sector
• US expects Hungary to give up Russian oil and gas
• US treasury secretary mocks Putin’s envoy over remarks on sanctions against Russia
• Russian foreign minister cynically claims Russia is not violating Budapest Memorandum
• WSJ: CIA and US State Department disagreed on Putin’s willingness for peace in early 2025
• Zelenskyy: First Gripen jets to arrive in Ukraine in 2026