Victory Chronicles-DAY 1373

Five Ukrainian soldiers were executed after being taken prisoner near the village of Zelenyi Hai in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, according to DeepState, a well-known Ukrainian analytical and mapping group that monitors frontline activity.

DeepState said the soldiers were captured in a tree line, forced to lie in a row and shot after being questioned. The group posted a photo that it said shows the aftermath. It did not specify when the killings occurred.

The incident comes just days after another widely documented execution of five unarmed Ukrainian prisoners in the Pokrovsk area of the Donetsk region. Ukrainian officials say these cases reflect a pattern of summary killings by Russian forces, acts that violate the Geneva Conventions and international humanitarian law.

Ukraine and IMF reach deal on new four-year support program. Ukraine has reached a staff-level agreement with the Washington-based lender International Monetary Fund on a new four-year program worth $8.2 billion, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko announced. 

The deal follows a week of talks in Kyiv with an IMF mission that was led by Gavin Gray, who heads the IMF mission to Ukraine.

Svyrydenko said the program is designed to help Ukraine cover critical government spending, keep its economy stable and attract the external support the country will need as the Russo-Ukrainian war grinds on. The agreement still requires approval from the IMF’s Executive Board, a step that typically follows staff-level deals.

She said the IMF confirmed that Ukraine’s economy remains resilient despite repeated strikes on energy infrastructure. Ukraine, she added, has prepared its 2026 draft budget in line with IMF requirements. It focuses on efficiency and oversight as the government tries to stretch every hryvnia to cover wartime demands.

Russia hands long prison terms to five Crimean Tatars. A court in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Donhas sentenced five Crimean Tatars from the city of Dzhankoi to prison terms that range from 13 to 19 years. The men were accused of involvement in Hizb ut-Tahrir, an Islamist political organization that is banned in Russia but legal in most other countries. Ukrainian and international human rights groups say such cases are routinely used to silence Crimean Tatar activists since Russia illegally seized the Crimean Peninsula in 2014.

According to the civic group Crimean Solidarity, activist Enver Krosh received the harshest sentence at 19 years. Edem Bekirov and Rinat Aliyev were each given 15 years, journalist Vilen Temeryanov received 14 years and Seitazi Abbosov was sentenced to 13 years. Under the ruling, Krosh will spend his first four years in prison before being transferred to a high-security penal colony; the others will serve three years in prison before similar transfers.

Speaking in court, Krosh said he had “nothing to do with terrorism or attempts to seize power,” calling the charges absurd. His attorney, Emil Kurbedinov, told the court that no one expected a fair outcome in what he described as a politically driven prosecution.

Drones hit oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region. A drone strike targeted an oil refinery in the city of Novokuybyshevsk in Russia’s Samara region for the fifth time on Nov. 26-27, according to Russian sources that track local incidents. Residents reported hearing explosions overnight, and video circulating online shows flashes in the sky and a bright burst on the refinery grounds.

The footage suggests several detonations: one high in the air, likely from Russian air defense firing to intercept drones, and another near the refinery itself, roughly 2.2 miles from where the video was shot. Russia’s federal aviation agency temporarily closed the Samara airport, though officials have not issued any public statements on the incident.

The Novokuybyshevsk refinery is part of state-run Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil company, and is one of several energy sites that were struck in recent weeks.

Key Takeaways

1. Data on Russian forces’ rate of advance indicates that a Russian military victory in Ukraine is not inevitable, and a rapid Russian seizure of the rest of Donetsk Oblast is not imminent.
2. Recent Russian advances elsewhere on the frontline have largely been opportunistic and exploited seasonal weather conditions.
3. Ukrainian forces have proven effective at constraining Russian advances and conducting successful counteroffensives, particularly when well-staffed and well-equipped.
4. Kremlin officials continue setting conditions to reject any peace deal that does not concede to all of Russia’s maximalist demands.
5. The Kremlin is reportedly concerned that the United States will correctly interpret Russia as unwilling to meaningfully engage in negotiations and accept any peace deal that compromises its ability to achieve its maximalist claims.
6. Recent Ukrainian counterattacks may further delay Russian forces’ seizure of Pokrovsk, though the situation in Pokrovsk remains serious and dynamic at this time.
7. Russia continues setting conditions to deploy active reservists to combat against Ukraine.
8. Russia’s long-range strike campaign is increasingly killing and injuring civilians.
9. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman.

• WSJ: Germany has a secret plan for war with Russia
• Lithuanian foreign minister: Any concessions to Russia on Ukraine borders would also jeopardize us
• Politico: Europe thinks the unthinkable: Retaliating against Russia
• Drones strike oil refinery in Russia’s Samara Oblast
• NYT: Driscoll warned Europeans about Russia’s missile buildup when presenting ‘peace plan’
• Russians start to feel real economic pain from Putin’s war
• NATO Secretary General Rutte: Russia has no right to block Ukraine from joining the defense alliance