Defense Express: How far can Russia’s drones reach?

Source: Kyiv-based Defense Express media and consulting company

Russia has the capability to launch Shahed drones at targets in Denmark, Germany, and Italy from its existing launch sites. If they were to establish new launch sites in Belarus, they could even reach Madrid on the western edge of Europe in the capital of Spain.

They are all NATO member states and Denmark has already had Russian military aircraft violate its airspace.

After Russia’s drone incursion into Poland and the appearance of unknown drones over airports in Norway and Denmark that paralyzed airports, a simple but critical question arises: how far can these Russian long-range unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) actually fly?

To answer this, it’s important to understand the flight range of Russia’s Geran-2 drones (which are based on the Iranian Shahed). 

According to Ukrainian intelligence, the range of a Geran-2 is between 1,800 and 2,500 kilometers (1,118 to 1,553 miles).

Some of Russia’s current launch infrastructure used for attacks on Ukraine could also be used to effectively launch drones against European NATO countries. For example, sites like Cape Chauda in occupied Crimea or near Bryansk are already in use. Another strategic location would be near St. Petersburg, which offers easy logistics and a favorable range.

From these locations, a Geran-2 with a 1,800 km range could reach all of Scandinavia, the Netherlands, most of Germany, and southern Italy. Extending that range to 2,500 km would put all of the United Kingdom, Italy, and most of France within striking distance.

It’s also worth noting that Russia can establish new drone launch pads in just a few months. This means they could rapidly deploy new sites if needed, such as at the Osovtsy airbase in Belarus’s Brest region or in the Kaliningrad exclave.

This would provide an additional 700-kilometer range. With a maximum range of 2,500 kilometers, this would bring nearly all of Europe into the strike zone, including half of Spain and Madrid. In essence, all European capitals except for Lisbon, Portugal would be vulnerable.

While these are maximum ranges, and Russia often uses complex flight paths to bypass Ukrainian air defense, the drone attack on Poland highlighted significant gaps in air defense, even on NATO’s eastern flank.

Russia may be banking on the idea that once a drone breaks through the initial border defense, it can move relatively freely. At the same time, the cost to a European country to intercept these drones is hundreds of times more expensive than the drones themselves.