Diane Francis: Russia will lose

by Diane Francis, Editor-at-Large at the National Post, columnist at the Kyiv Post, Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, Eurasia Center and author, publisher on Substack

Source: Francis on Substack

The Battle of Stalingrad in 1943 was history’s bloodiest battle and a turning point in the Second World War because it destroyed Adolph Hitler’s attempt to create an empire. Now, Vladimir Putin is bogged down in Ukraine and cannot win a war that he started three years ago to recreate an empire. Both dictators are spookily similar: They launched genocidal wars to erase “peoples”, identities, and their nation-states; they underestimated their opponents, and became bogged down in wars of attrition. The result was that Stalingrad became the graveyard of Hitler’s ambitions, and Ukraine will become Putin’s graveyard. 

Ukrainians are also brilliant tacticians, technologically superior, and fearless soldiers. But German General Friedrich Paulus, who surrendered his army in Stalingrad, identified the biggest reason behind Hitler’s failure, which applies to Ukraine today: “Even the best army is doomed to fail when it is required to perform impossible tasks – that is, when it is ordered to campaign against the national existence of other peoples.”

On the eve of Putin’s 2022 invasion, I wrote that Ukrainians would never give up and described how Ukrainians were digging in and preparing for a guerrilla war. Elderly people were issued rifles and taught how to use them. Mothers and children were assembling Molotov cocktails. Said one official: “Our people are ready to fight. Every window will shoot if [Russians] go [in].” This was not surprising. 

For years, Ukrainians fought against corruption and Russian influence to build a secure democracy. In 2004, they stood their ground in street protests, singing, speechifying, and defying. In 2014, when snipers from Russia were finally brought in and killed 100, millions flooded the streets, Putin’s puppet President fled then Russian tanks and troops rolled into eastern Ukraine. Then, for months, volunteers held off a full-scale invasion because Putin’s puppet had stripped Ukraine’s army of weapons and funding.

Ukrainians simply know how to handle Russia. They have survived wars, communist terror, starvation, poverty, political treachery, Russia’s disdain for their culture, and now its desire to reconquer them. Notably, the country’s anthem describes the national DNA, rooted in sacrifice: “Body and soul we will lay down for our freedom. And we will show that we are people of Cossack heritage.” That’s why on February 24, 2022, when Putin announced that his “special operation” had begun, the entire country immediately mobilized. A gigantic army was fielded. 

Women, children, and their household pets were encouraged to evacuate to Poland and around the world. Three years later, the biggest army in Europe had been created, and Ukraine’s engineers and computer scientists had reinvented warfare. Their sea drones have sunk one-third of Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet, and millions of their aerial drones have become the backbone of the country’s artillery and air force.

Ukrainians are smarter than Russians. For instance, Ukraine mounted a “Trojan horse” attack this year that involved 117 powerful drones hidden inside containers, which were transported by trucks thousands of miles to Russian bases. Lids were opened remotely and simultaneously, releasing swarms of drones that targeted critical military aircraft at five Russian military bases deep inside the country, a fleet worth an estimated $7 billion. 

The assault crippled Russia’s Air Force, said George Barros, an expert with the Institute for the Study of War. “By killing the archers instead of intercepting the arrows, it’s a more effective way to degrade Russian capabilities.”

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