Snyder: ‘Russian settlement’ for Ukraine raises risk of nuclear war

Timothy Snyder, a distinguished American historian, an expert on Central and Eastern Europe, the Soviet Union, and the Holocaust, has said that the proposed Russian peace settlement for Ukraine, currently promoted by the White House, could increase the risk of nuclear war, undermine the international order, destabilize Europe, and fail to ensure Ukraine’s reconstruction and sovereignty.

“The first is that it makes nuclear war a lot more likely. If you force Ukraine to accept terms which amount to defeat in capitulation, the rest of the world draws a conclusion. And that conclusion is you have to build nuclear weapons to hold off a Russian invasion or a Chinese invasion or an invasion of somebody who has nuclear weapons. Forcing Ukraine to capitulate means nuclear proliferation. Nuclear proliferation means an increased risk of nuclear war around the world,” Snyder said.

He warned that any attempt to impose conditions of defeat on Ukraine could trigger a global arms race and heighten the threat of a large-scale nuclear conflict.

“The second point is international order. The fundament of our international order is that there are states, the states have borders, those borders can’t be violated by invasion. Now, this happens from time to time, but it’s exceptional. What would be even more exceptional is to endorse it by rewarding Russia for invading Ukraine,” Snyder said.

The historian cautioned that agreeing to a “Russian settlement” could legitimize aggression and make border violations an acceptable practice in international relations.

“The third point is regional peace. If Russia is rewarded for invading Ukraine, and if the terms of the settlement in Ukraine leave Russia stronger, then Russia will have been encouraged in every possible way, legal, moral, psychological, and economic, to continue fighting wars in Europe,” Snyder said.

Strengthening Russia through such a “settlement” would set dangerous precedents for new conflicts in Europe.

“The fourth point is future reconstruction. Peace doesn’t mean just the momentary absence of hostilities. You have to have a Ukraine that can defend itself, that can belong to international institutions, that is sovereign, and also in order to have peace you have to have a Ukraine that can rebuild itself. There is no provision whatsoever for this in this settlement,” he said.

Snyder also said that any peace agreement must ensure Ukraine’s ability to rebuild and integrate into international institutions, not just a temporary cessation of hostilities.

“The fifth and maybe most fundamental is process. The Ukrainians are the most important people concerned. They have not been consulted in this settlement. It is a Russian-led settlement translated into English by Americans,” Snyder said.

He said that without directly involving the primary stakeholders of Ukrainians and their allies, any peace settlement cannot be durable or effective.