The outcome of Russia’s war will impact everyone

by Eugene Czolij
former president of the Ukrainian World Congress
president of the Ukraine-2050 nongovernmental organization

Source: KyivPost

A lingering question among political experts is how Russia’s war will end?

To answer this question, one must first understand why Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and started its all-out war against Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.

During the press conference following his Alaska summit with President Donald Trump on Aug. 15, 2025, Putin stated: “The situation in Ukraine has to do with fundamental threats to our security… we’re convinced that in order to make the settlement lasting and long term, we need to eliminate all the primary roots, the primary causes of that conflict, and we’ve said it multiple times, to consider all legitimate concerns of Russia and to reinstate a just balance of security in Europe and in the world on the whole.”

What does that mean?

Prior to starting its all-out war against Ukraine, on Dec. 17, 2021, Russia proposed Yalta-style “security” agreements to NATO and the United States.

The draft “Agreement on measures to ensure the security of the Russian Federation and member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization” provided that:

“Article 4

The Russian Federation and all the Parties that were member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as of 27 May 1997, respectively, shall not deploy military forces and weaponry on the territory of any of the other States in Europe in addition to the forces stationed on that territory as of 27 May 1997. With the consent of all the Parties such deployments can take place in exceptional cases to eliminate a threat to security of one or more Parties…

Article 6

All member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization commit themselves to refrain from any further enlargement of NATO, including the accession of Ukraine as well as other States.

Article 7

The Parties that are member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization shall not conduct any military activity on the territory of Ukraine as well as other States in the Eastern Europe, in the South Caucasus and in Central Asia.”

Russia’s proposed “security” agreements would entail the withdrawal of NATO troops and armaments from half of the 32 NATO member countries, namely Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Sweden, as they all became NATO member countries after May 27, 1997.

In other words, under the false pretext that Russia’s borders are incessantly threatened by NATO’s expansion, the Kremlin wants to:

a) re-establish a Russian sphere of influence on the territory of the former Eastern Bloc countries; and

b) close NATO’s “open-door policy” to ensure that Ukraine never becomes a NATO member country.

This should not surprise anyone as Putin publicly stated in his April 25, 2005 state of the nation address that the collapse of the Soviet Union was “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”

Since then, Putin vowed to restore Russia’s so-called “past glory” and has systematically acted to achieve that goal, including with such imperialist projects as the Eurasian Union, the Russkiy Mir and the “security” agreements proposed in 2021 to NATO and the United States.

Why is Ukraine the primary focus of Russia’s attention?

The Act of Declaration of Independence of Ukraine of Aug. 24, 1991, confirmed by the referendum of Dec. 1 of the same year in which all the oblasts and Crimea approved the independence of Ukraine, led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union on Dec. 26, 1991.

Thus, to reconstitute the Soviet Union, Russia needs to reconquer Ukraine.

In his book titled “Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power,” US President Jimmy Carter’s National Security Adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, explained why Ukraine is the pivotal element in the reconstitution of a Soviet empire:

“It cannot be stressed enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire.”

That is why Putin will never willingly agree to any peace agreement that does not promote the restoration of a neo-Soviet Union and neo-Eastern Bloc or goes counter to that imperialist plan.

The 2026 report of the Munich Security Conference states: “Russia’s ongoing aggression constitutes ‘the most significant and direct threat’ to NATO members and European security… Indeed, some intelligence agencies estimate that Russia could reconstitute its forces for a ‘regional war’ in the Baltic Sea area within two years of a potential ceasefire in Ukraine – and for a ‘local’ one against a single neighbor within six months.”

Russia’s violations of the airspace of seven NATO member countries in 2025, namely Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland and Romania, are reminders of Russia’s expansionist ambitions that go substantially beyond Ukraine.

Thus, were Russia to succeed against Ukraine and, as a result “become an empire,” then Russia would no doubt continue to execute on its plan to reconstitute a neo-Soviet Union and neo-Eastern Bloc. The Kremlin would thereby trigger World War III.

If Ukraine is forced into a peace agreement with territorial concessions, it will embolden other dictators to pursue their imperialist ambitions and invade foreign countries with the expectation that they will ultimately be rewarded for seizing territory.

However, if Ukraine, with effective and timely support of all NATO member countries, were to stop Russia now and force it to agree to a genuine, comprehensive and long-lasting peace agreement with appropriate security guarantees, then peace, security and stability would be enhanced globally.

The outcome of Russia’s all-out war against Ukraine will ultimately impact everyone.

For the sake of humanity, NATO member countries should take immediate steps to help ensure that Ukraine stops the Kremlin’s imperialist plans and that Russia’s war ends promptly with a just and lasting peace in full compliance with the United Nations Charter and a security architecture that prevents Russia from waging war against Europe with impunity.