Timothy Ash: Trump’s Ukraine peace talks are going nowhere

by Timothy Ash, a British economist covering Europe, the Middle East and Africa

Source: Ash on Substack

It’s a read my lips moment, Trump’s Ukraine peace talks are just not serious. There seems to be some market optimism building around the Trump peace process in Ukraine, being spearheaded by Witkoff and Kushner.

Ukrainian Eurobonds have been amongst the best performing in EM space this year, so someone seems to believe the narrative coming from Witkoff et al, that talks have been constructive, and that 90% of issues have been resolved.

Remember that after the Dimitriev “Russian” 28 point plan, there was then a revised Ukrainian — European condensed 20 point plan. And reports then that Ukraine had secured some kind of agreement on security guarantees to backstop any ceasefire agreement.

Messaging from Witkoff et al has been that the only remaining sticking point is now territory, and Moscow’s demand that Ukraine withdraws all its forces from Donbas, ceding in effect control of Donbas to Russia.

Ukraine has thus far baulked at the demand to give up Donbas, after four hard years of fighting and, indeed, longer as Russia’s first military intervention in Donbas dates back to the summer of 2014. Why if Russia has failed after 12 hard years of bitter fighting to secure Donbas, should Ukraine give it up now? 

And opinion polls in Ukraine appear to be of the same view with a KIIS poll this week suggesting 52% of Ukrainians oppose conceding Donbas to Russia, with 65% seemingly still prepared to endure the war as long as it takes.

Trump, Witkoff, et al would no doubt argue that that giving up Donbas is the price for Ukraine now of peace, and if you don’t surrender Donbas now, then the war will continue at the cost of many more Ukrainian casualties, and the potential loss of much more territory for Ukraine. And the stick from the US is that if Ukraine does not accept this peace deal, then US military support could be withdrawn risking a broader collapse of Ukrainian defences.

I guess the core question for Ukraine is if it gives up Donbas, what is to stop Russia taking this land and carrying on the war? How can Russia to be trusted, and what is the West going to do to ensure Russian compliance with any peace deal? The problem is more acute for Ukraine as the Donbas continues to be the backbone of Ukraine’s defences. Military wisdom is that if Ukraine gives up its Donbas frontline defences then the space West would be laid open for much greater Russian territorial advances.

For Ukraine then, the questions are first, can Russia be trusted to honour any peace deal, and second, will the West come to Ukraine’s defence if Russia is given Donbas and then just carries on West?

Can Russia be trusted?

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