Ukraine historian says war could end with ‘internal collapse’ of one side

Russia’s war against Ukraine is unlikely to end with a conventional defeat on the battlefield. Instead, it may conclude with the internal collapse of one side due to depleted resources and an inability to sustain a long-term conflict.

This assessment comes from Ukrainian historian Yaroslav Hrytsak, speaking after his lecture at The Hague University of Applied Sciences, according to Ukrinform.

“Wars end with the collapse of one side. The key question is who will break first. If Ukraine maintains access to Western support, the risk of collapse for Russia grows,” Hrytsak said.

He said that it is important to show Russian society that Putin’s regime has no chance of winning and is only leading the country into a deep crisis.

“They are willing to endure as long as the war doesn’t affect them directly. The goal for Ukraine and the West is to make Russians feel the impact of this war. The regime can only collapse if people see that Putin has no chance of winning, and that what he is doing in Russia leads nowhere positive,” Hrytsak added.

He said that regime collapses usually happen gradually, then suddenly. “It could happen tomorrow, or it could take years. But this regime has no future.”

At the same time, Hrytsak warned against a scenario in which, after a possible fall of the current government in Russia, another figure from Putin’s inner circle takes power without meaningful changes in state policy.

Hrytsak also mentioned Ukraine’s resilience after more than ten years of conflict, demonstrating the society’s ability to mobilize in the face of an existential threat.

“War makes the impossible possible. Ukraine’s victory is not only a military success but also a definitive emergence from Russia’s shadow and entry into the European space.”