by Valerii Pekar, a Ukrainian futurist, as well as an entrepreneur, well-known public figure and distinguished lecturer at the Kyiv-Mohyla Business School.
Source: Pekar on Facebook
I have been warning about a potential Russian attack on Poland since the beginning of the year and have published several articles in Polish journals, and in July even in English (for German readers).
The Russian doctrine of “liminal war” involves probing the opponent with operations “below the threshold,” leaving the other side unsure whether or how to respond. The threshold of operations gradually rises until the opponent reacts, but by that point, the operation is already complete, and its objectives have been achieved.
The February 2022 all-out invasion was different because Russia wanted a flashy parade in Kyiv. But February 2014 in Crimea was exactly such a case, and the ensuing “Russian spring” when Russian paramilitary units took over parts of eastern Ukraine clearly emulated this pattern.
It’s no coincidence that Poland did not initially name the attacker (Correction: They have now, but Russia will claim it was Ukraine). Words require actions, and no one is ready to act yet. Drones were shot down, and it seemed like nothing had happened.
Meanwhile, Russian forces are conducting reconnaissance on Polish air defense systems and command-and-control networks. We will also see attempts to sway Polish public opinion and place blame on Ukraine. I have described all this in detail. It could even lead to economically self-defeating decisions for Poland regarding Ukrainian migrants. Hysteria, especially political hysteria, is a poor advisor.
At the same time, the primary target of Russian intelligence is not Polish air defenses but U.S. policy. There has been an attack on a NATO member (did you notice the slip by a U.S. congressman who said “NATO ally” instead of “NATO member”?). Consultations must begin immediately, and I expect strong expressions of concern.
I assume you understand the situation, so I won’t make a two-column table of “what Americans should do” versus “what Americans will do.”
The unfolding events are a result of the deepening U.S.–Europe split that is encouraged by China.
As for what Ukrainians should do, you already know. I have written about it hundreds of times. Fortunately, of all European peoples, we are the most prepared for what comes next.
Cover: the Facebook account Nocna Jazda Tomaszów Mazowiecki
