A ‘bad peace’ with Russia would spark new European conflicts, says American analyst

Russia’s so-called peace plan imposed on Ukraine could trigger a new era of European conflict with serious and unavoidable consequences for U.S. national security, according to leading U.S. defense and security analyst Michael Cecire, as reported by Kyiv Post.

“[Russia] may be able to launch an attack against NATO within the next 5-10 years. That’s something I think we all have to be thinking about when we’re looking at the cost of a bad peace,” Cecire said.

He said that while Ukraine is currently bearing the brunt of Russia’s aggression, the entire region is at risk. 

“The potential consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Russian, as well as Chinese, efforts to push U.S. influence out of Europe are troubling, but they can be countered,” he said.

Ukraine’s experience shows that Russia may not be able to launch a large-scale conventional assault on a NATO country right away — but it can still use hybrid tactics to test and possibly fracture the alliance’s unity, Cecire said.

A military victory for Russia in Ukraine, or a ceasefire on Moscow’s terms, would almost certainly encourage the Kremlin to seek further territorial gains elsewhere, particularly against Moldova and neighboring states.

“Russia could physically and directly threaten Moldova, yes, but it might not need to. It could reinforce Transnistria, play a more overt role in other vulnerable regions of Moldova that it has long cultivated,” he said.

Such actions, Cecire said, would seriously undermine European security, harm U.S. strategic interests, and increase threats to key NATO allies — especially Romania, the Balkans, and Central and Eastern Europe.

“The precedent would be stark. Russian aggression would be seen as on the march, and rightly so. In Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia, Russia will have successfully strategically decapitated three EU candidate countries, and it would be better able to redirect its considerable hybrid operations and military power in the region,” he said.