Can Putin break the energy truce?

On Jan. 29, U.S. President Donald Trump said he had asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to temporarily halt attacks on Ukraine due to severe cold, and the Kremlin reported that it agreed to the proposal until Feb. 1.

Ukraine’s president emphasized that there are no direct agreements between Kyiv and Moscow. Volodymyr Zelenskyy also reported that there were no strikes on energy infrastructure overnight on Jan. 30, but Russia has redirected attacks toward logistics and civilian areas.

Ukrainian political analyst and communications expert Vadym Denysenko examines whether Putin has any incentive to break the energy truce — and why it seems unlikely.

Can Putin break the energy truce?

In short: no. The Russians bungled their last attempt to provoke with the so-called “Valday strike” at the end of last year, and it’s impossible to raise the stakes further without provoking a dispute with Trump.

Putin’s strategy remains unchanged: drag out the conflict while avoiding a clash with Trump. In Moscow, the energy truce is viewed as an unpleasant but necessary episode.

Negotiations in Abu Dhabi, for now, appear to exclude territorial issues. The principle, introduced when Jared Kushner joined the talks, is to separate discussions into “everything else” and “territories.” This strategy proved effective in the U.S.-Ukraine negotiations, and it now seems to be applied to talks with Russia. For the time being, everything is discussed except territorial issues.

This explains why Kushner and Witkof will not participate in the Feb. 1 talks — they are simply not needed at this stage. In practice, we are entering a period of several months of negotiations where territorial questions are effectively set aside. Based on the logic of the first Abu Dhabi meeting, the parties are deliberately postponing this issue, even though it will remain a key topic in the information space. Misunderstandings may arise at every stage, and the Russians will likely try to provoke them.

Meanwhile, it’s important to note that Trump has effectively imposed a blockade on Cuba, and military forces continue to build up near Iran. This will inevitably distract from Ukraine. Yet Ukraine remains part of Trump’s election strategy, and it is crucial that other issues do not push it out of focus.

Regardless of developments in Iran and Cuba, there will not be a second “Atlantic pivot.” Even if U.S. forces were to remove the leadership of these countries tomorrow, Russia would not abandon the negotiation process. 

Putin fears falling out with Trump. On one hand, because of potential pressure on the shadow fleet, and on the other, because Russia needs to balance relations between China and the West. A break with Trump would leave Russia isolated with Beijing, and unlike 2022, Moscow has almost no reserves left.

In summary, Abu Dhabi will see intense negotiations on conditionally secondary — but still very important — issues. U.S. logic remains unchanged: reach agreement on everything except territories, then apply pressure on both sides simultaneously. For now, Ukraine should pay close attention to whether the U.S. continues to stop ships from the shadow fleet, which remains a key litmus test for whether pressure on Russia will be maintained.