Victory Chronicles
-DAY 198

ARM UKRAINE: TREMENDOUS ADVANCES IN KHARKIV REGION

Above: Ukrainian soldiers unfurl the Ukrainian flag at a Kupyansk district marker.  Photo via MilitaryLand.net

• Ukrainian forces have reached the outskirts of Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast. The Institute for the Study of War predicts that Ukrainian forces will take the city within the next 72 hours.  Kupyansk is a key logistical node in the enemy supply line going south to Izyum and onward to northern Donetsk Oblast including a heavily used rail line from russian territory.
• Milbloggers point out that enemy troops left in the area after large redeployments to southern Ukraine are mostly conscripts from the illegitimate Luhansk occupational regime, undertrained and underequipped. One Luhansk poster said, “Everyone knows that these are dead men, their only hope is captivity.”
• Ru propaganda media is reporting frantic evacuations from Kupyansk, allegedly just the women and children, but we hope that all the orcs get out while they can.

BOYCOTT RUSSIANS: BORDER COUNTRIES CLOSE DOOR ON RU TOURISTS

Above:  Northeastern Europe is unfortunate to have a very bad neighbor.  Map via Quora

• Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have banded together to block russians from entering their countries, even those with Schengen visas.  These countries are not only on russia’s border – Poland and Lithuania border Kaliningrad – but also understand the threat of the russian character better than other countries.
• The prime ministers for the bloc issued a joint statement expressing their political will and resolve to ban russian travels on the basis of threats to public safety and national security.  The statement begins, “The countries bordering Russia are increasingly concerned about the significant and growing influx of Russian citizens across our borders into the European Union and the Schengen area. We believe that this is starting to pose a serious threat to our public security and to the entire Schengen area.”
• For now, two countries that share borders with russia – Finland and Sweden – will not impose a ban.  Finland is considering a visa ban but the newest NATO aspirant wants more clarification from the EU.  In the meantime, Finland will limit visa applications to 500 per day, far fewer than in pre-pandemic times and prioritize non-tourist travelers.
• European Union foreign ministers agreed at the end of August to suspend a long-standing visa agreement with Russia that had simplified and reduced the cost of the application process. Now, ordinary Russians have to pay roughly €50 more for Schengen tourist visa applications with longer processing times and more paperwork. Their applications are also more likely to be rejected and they are less likely to receive multiple-entry visas.

UKRINFORM: HOW LONG WILL THE WAR LAST?

Above: Photo via Ukrinform

• In a lengthy analysis piece, Ukrinform looked at several factors relevant to predicting the duration of russian war in Ukrainian sovereign land. The authors fist look at russian goals and when it might be satisfied to halt.  At a minimum, the conquering of Donetsk Oblast is requisite.  Second would be moving north into Zaporizhzhya to gain a stronghold on the Dnipro River.  The most desirable yet very difficult goal would be too sweep across southern Ukraine into Odesa, bridging with Transnistria in Moldova and cutting off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea.
• The authors suggest that the stage is set for conclusive battles to take place in 2023.  “The only way to radically change the strategic situation is undoubtedly for the Ukrainian Army to launch several consecutive, and ideally, simultaneous counterstrikes throughout 2023. It would be hard to overestimate their military, as well as political and informational, significance.” Ukraine only has a fighting chance if it has a large pool of combat-ready forces and enough powerful military hardware to drive the enemy back.
• Considering the 2,500 kilometer front, success means bolstering the capacity of existing defenders by updating all equipment and weaponry to modern standards and adding significant numbers of troops to the southern front for an end-game assault on the lynchpin – Crimea.
• “Strictly speaking, all of this is directly and exclusively dependent on the resources available to Ukraine. While the situation with the number of forces is likely to look quite promising for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the same cannot be applied to heavy weaponry and ammunition. But, in any case, provided there is political will, timely and deliberate planning, with the use of the industrial base and reserves of the world’s leading powers, the task of setting up and properly equipping such groupings is seen as absolutely realistic.”