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DAY 222

Victory Chronicles
-DAY 222

October 3,2022

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: KREMLIN WAR LIES CHALLENGED BY SUPPORTERS

Above: Westerns are shocked by the pervasive drunkenness of ru soldiers, but Ukrainians are not.  Newsweek

  • Russian State Duma MPs withdrew a law that would have given mobilized men a one-time payment of 300,000 rubles (about $4,980) and other benefits, without providing a reason for their decision.
  • Ukrainian military officials stated that Russian forces are forming a motorized rifle division with mobilized men from Crimea, Krasnodar Krai, and the Republic of Adygea.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin submitted a draft law to the State Duma on admitting the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, and Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts, to the Russian Federation.
  • The Russian defeat in Kharkiv Oblast and Lyman, combined with the Kremlin’s failure to conduct partial mobilization effectively and fairly are fundamentally changing the Russian information space.
  • The Russian information space has significantly deviated from the narratives preferred by the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) that things are generally under control.
  • The Kremlin’s declaration of partial mobilization exposed the general Russian public to the consequences of the defeat around Kharkiv and then at Lyman, shattering the Kremlin’s efforts to portray the war as limited and generally successful.
  • Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Wagner Private Military Company financier Evgeniy Prigozhin have further damaged the Kremlin’s vulnerable narratives during and after the fall of Lyman.

From the General Staff, remarks on diminishing enemy morale:

  • Thanks to the successes of the Defense Forces, a decrease in the level of morale and psychological state of enemy personnel was noted in some directions, which leads to numerous cases of servicemen being captured and leaving their positions.
  • Delays and reductions in the level of promised payments for participation in the so-called “special military operation” on the territory of Ukraine have a negative impact on servicemen of the armed forces of the russian federation.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: New York Times

  • Liquidated personnel, 60,430 (+320)
  • Tanks, 2,380 (+3)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 4,991 (+16)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,405/338 (+0/1)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 176 (+1)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 265/228 (+1/1)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 1,026 (+11)
  • Cruise missiles, 246 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 15 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 3,811 (+15)
  • Special equipment, 131 (0)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: orcs bombed two convoys of families last week. Reuters

  • During the current day, the russian occupiers carried out four missile and three air strikes, carried out more than fifteen MLRS attacks on military and civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine.
  • More than fifteen settlements were affected by enemy strikes. Among them are Ridkodub, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhya, Zaliznychne and Mykolayiv.
  • The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly.
  • In other directions, the enemy fired from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery:
    • in the Siverskyш direction – in the areas of Hrynivka and Buchka settlements of Chernihiv oblast and Seredyna Buda, Muraveynya, Fotovyzh of Sumy region;
    • in the Slobozhanskyi direction – in the areas of the settlements of Vovchansk and Gatishche;
    • in the Kramatorsk direction – Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamianske;
    • in the Bakhmut direction – Rozdolivka, Vesele, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Klishchiyivka, Odradivka, Zaitseve, Mayorsk, New York and Yuryivka;
    • in the Avdiyivka direction – in the areas of Avdiyivka, Netaylove, Pervomaiske, Vodyane, Opytne, Krasnohorivka, Kurakhove, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka.
  • The enemy did not conduct active offensive actions in the Novopavlivsk and Zaporizhzhya directions. It carried out shelling in the areas of settlements of Novopil, Novosilka, Vremivka, Velyka Novosilka, Neskuchne, Novoukrainka, Zaliznychne, and Hulyaipole.
  • More than 40 settlements along the contact line were hit by fire in the Southern Buh direction. For conducting reconnaissance and aiming artillery, the enemy made more than seventy UAV flies.

KHARKIV

Above:  Ukrainian forces liberating Kupyansk.  Ukrinform

Map via ISW
  • Ukrainian forces continued to advance on settlements east of Kupyansk and liberated Kisharivka in Kharkiv Oblast.

LUHANSK AND DONETSK

Above: Izyum mopping up operation with russian flag.  New York Times

Map via ISW
  • Ukrainian forces continued to liberate settlements east and northeast of Lyman and have liberated Torske in Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russian sources claimed that Russian forces withdrew from their positions northeast of Lyman, likely to positions around Kreminna and along the R66 Svatove-Kreminna highway.
  • Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful assaults around Bakhmut, Vyimka, and Avdiivka.
  • During the current day, units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Zaytseve, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Odradivka, Pervomaiske, Spirne and Vyimka settlements.

SOUTHERN

Above: Emergency medicine near Zaporizhzhya.  New York Times

Map via ISW
  • Ukrainian forces resumed counteroffensives in northern Kherson Oblast and have secured positions in Zolota Balka and Khreshchenivka. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces also liberated Shevchekivka and Lyubymivka, pushing Russian forces to new defensive positions around Mykailivka.
  • Russian forces continued to target Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv Oblast with Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones.
  • According to detailed information, it was confirmed that enemy personnel and military equipment were destroyed on the first of October, namely, the destruction of an ammunition warehouse of the occupiers in the area of Tavriyske settlement of the Kherson region and the destruction of seven tanks and up to ten vehicles in the Chernihivka region of the Zaporizhya region. Information on personnel losses is being clarified.

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