DAY 225

Victory Chronicles
-DAY 225

October 6,2022


Above: Freshly-mobilized russians in Krasnodar.  (USA Today)

  • Russian forces conducted the first strike on Kyiv Oblast since June with a Shahed-136 drone.
  • The Head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, announced that Putin awarded him the rank of Colonel-General.
  • Increasing domestic critiques of Russia’s “partial mobilization” are likely driving Putin to scapegoat the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and specifically Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
  • Russian milbloggers continued to criticize the implementation of the Russian “partial mobilization” on October 5.
  • Russian citizens who are economically disadvantaged and ethnic minority Russian communities continue to bear a disproportionate burden in mobilization rates and casualty rates according to investigative reports, suggesting that Russian authorities may be deliberately placing poor and minority Russian citizens in more dangerous positions than well-off or ethnic Russians.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin completed the final formality in the process for illegally annexing Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories on October 5.


Above: Another flying enemy tank turret near Kupyansk.  (LA Times)

  • Liquidated personnel, 61,330 (+330)
  • Tanks, 2,449 (+14)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 5,064 (+26)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,424/344 (+10/3)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 177 (0)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 266/232 (0)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 1,047 (+15)
  • Cruise missiles, 246 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 15 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 3,854 (+13)
  • Special equipment, 134 (+2)


Above: Destroyed civilian infrastructure in Lyman, Donetsk. (Kyiv Independent)

  • Over the past 24 hours, the occupiers have launched 5 rocket and 8 air strikes, and fired more than 65 MLRS attacks. Objects and the civilian population of more than thirty settlements were damaged by enemy strikes. Among them are Bila Tserkva, Kupyansk, Bilohorivka, Siversk, Karlivka, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhya, Hulyaipole, Progress, Nikopol and Myrne.
  • There remains the threat of air and missile strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine.
  • The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly.
  • The enemy fired in other directions:
    • in the Siversky direction – in the areas of Rozhkovychi and Fotovyzh settlements of the Sumy oblast;
    • in the Slobozhansky direction – in the areas of the settlements of Udy, Veterynarne, Strilecha, Krasne, Ohirtseve, Hlyboke, Neskuchne, and Milove;
    • in the Kramatorsk direction – near Verkhnyokamyanske, Ivanivka, Serebryanka and Spirne;
    • in the Bakhmut direction – in the areas of the settlements of Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Opytne, Odradivka, Mayorsk, New York and Yuryivka;
    • in the Avdiyivka direction – in the areas of Avdiyivka, Pervomaiske, Vodyane, Pisky, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Paraskoviyivka, Novomykhailivka.
  • On the Novopavlivskyi and Zaporizhzhya directions, the enemy inflicted fire on the areas of the settlements of Novopil, Vremivka, Velyka Novosilka, Shakhtarske, Zolota Nyva, Poltavka, Hulyaipole, Chervone, Pavlivka, Hulyaipilske, Dorozhnyanka and Novoukrayinka.
  • In the South Buh direction, the occupiers continue to regroup and withdraw their units. More than 30 settlements along the contact line were shelled with tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery. In particular, Velyke Artakove, Bilohirka, Blahodativka, Andriyivka, Pervomaiske, Lyubomirivka, Soldatske, Pravdyne, Myrne and Oleksandrivka.


Above:  The enemy is still heavily bombing Kharkiv.  (Terrace Standard)

Map via ISW
  • The Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in Kharkiv Oblast has not yet culminated and is actively pushing into Luhansk Oblast.
  • Ukrainian troops also likely continued advances in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast near the Kupyansk area on October 5.
  • A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced in the direction of Orlianka (8km east of Petropavlivka) through a “grey zone” between Petropavlivka and Vilshana.The milblogger claimed that Ukrainian troops are reinforcing the Kupyansk area to prepare for further eastward advances.


Above: Ukrainian policeman gathers evidence in a crater in Kramatorsk.  (CBS19News)

Map via ISW
  • Ukrainian forces made gains in northwestern Luhansk Oblast near Svatove on October 5.
  • Russian sources continued to discuss Ukrainian attacks along the R66 (Svatove Kreminna) highway with concern and stated that Russian troops, reportedly including elements of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division, are preparing defenses in Svatove, Kreminna, and along the R66.
  • Russian forces are likely focusing on the defense of the Svatove-Kreminna frontline because they are increasingly concerned that Ukrainian penetration of this line will allow Ukrainian troops to threaten Starobilsk, a key Russian logistics hub about 50km east of Svatove, through which run many ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that are essential to Russian operations in Luhansk Oblast.
  • Access to the R66 will likely also allow Ukrainian troops to push south from Svatove to Kreminna, Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk, which would likely have substantial informational effects considering the protracted and costly Russian campaign to capture Severodonetsk in June.
  • As a result of the gradual liberation by the Defense Forces of the temporarily occupied territories, simultaneously with the departure of units of the russian occupation forces, the departure of henchmen of the occupation authorities is noted. Thus, according to available information, the movement of three buses of supporters of the occupiers was recorded from the village of Svatove to Novopskov, Luhansk oblast.
  • In the village of Rubizhne, Luhansk oblast, in order to search for Ukrainian saboteurs and partisans, the occupiers imposed a curfew and intensified filtering measures.


Above: On the frontlines near Mykolaiv.  (Kyiv Independent)

Map via ISW
  • Information continues to be received about the mining of infrastructure facilities in the city of Enerhodar by the russian invaders.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin took measures to assert full Russian control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
  • Ukrainian troops likely consolidated positions and regrouped in northern Kherson Oblast after making major gains over in the last 48 hours.
  • Russian sources reported Ukrainian offensive preparations northwest, west, and northeast of Kherson City.
  • Ukrainian forces likely consolidated positions in northern Kherson Oblast and regrouped on October 5 as Russian troops attempted to recover from recent Ukrainian advances. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command confirmed on October 4 that Ukrainian troops liberated Lyubimivka, Khreshchenivka, Zolta Balka, Bilyaivka, Ukrainka, Velyka Oleksandrivka, Mala Oleksandrivka and Davydiv Brid as ISW assessed on October 4.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff noted that recent Ukrainian success are forcing Russian troops to evacuate the wounded to crossings on the Dnipro River and that Russian forces moved over 150 wounded servicemen to Vesele, located across the Dnipro from Nova Kakhkovka.
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops are preparing for offensive operations northwest of Kherson City on October 5.
  • As a result of the gradual liberation by the Defense Forces of the temporarily occupied territories, simultaneously with the departure of units of the russian occupation forces, the departure of henchmen of the occupation authorities is noted. In the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson oblast, representatives of private security campaigns from the TOT of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea plan to evacuate back to the peninsula.

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