Victory Chronicles
-DAY 230

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: RU UNABLE TO CLOTHE AND EQUIP MOBILIZED FORCES DUE TO CORRUPTION

Above: The enemy hit central Kyiv with cruise missiles Monday. (Euronews)

• Russian forces conducted a massive missile strike attack against over 20 cities, including Kyiv, on October 10, wasting some of Russia’s dwindling precision weapons against civilian targets, as opposed to militarily significant targets.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed to have ordered the missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure in retaliation for a “terrorist act” at the Kerch Strait Bridge, likely in part to curry favor with the Russian pro-war nationalist camp that has been demanding such retaliation.
• Russian and Belarusian forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine from the north despite Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s October 10 announcement that Belarus and Russia agreed to deploy the Union State’s Regional Grouping of Forces (RGV) —a strategic formation of Russian and Belarusian units tasked with defending the Union State.
• Russian forces cannot supply mobilized forces, likely due to years of supply theft by contract soldiers and commanders. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to depend on proxy forces, mobilized, and contract soldiers finding ways to provide their own equipment.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported Belarusian military warehouses and arsenals remain another source for resupply and that Belarusian authorities plan to send 13 trains with ammunition and other unspecified equipment from Belarus to Russia.

OCTOBER 10 CIVILIAN MISSILE AND DRONE ATTACKS BY THE NUMBERS

Above: Enemy missile strikes across Ukraine on October 10. (Euromaidan Press)

• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched over 84 cruise missiles and 24 drone attacks, 13 of which were carried out with Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones.
• Ukrainian air defense shot down 43 cruise missiles, 10 Shahed-136 drones, and 3 unspecified drones.
• Russian forces launched missiles from 10 strategic bombers operating in the Caspian Sea and from Nizhny Novgorod, Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems, and 6 missile carriers in the Black Sea.
• Russian forces launched the Shahed-136 drones from Crimea and Belarus.
• Ukrainian media reported that Russian missile strikes hit 70 targets, including 29 critical infrastructure facilities, 4 high-rise buildings, 35 residential buildings, and a school.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Young person looks at destroyed enemy tank near Kharkiv. (Barrons)

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

• Liquidated personnel, 63,110 (+240)
• Tanks, 2,504 (+9)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 5,162 (+13)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,496/353 (+10/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 181 (+3)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 268/235 (+1/0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,114 (+17)
• Cruise missiles, 295 (+46)
• Warships/boats, 15 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 3,916 (+8)
• Special equipment, 136 (+2)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Volunteers mobilize to clear destroyed residential neighborhoods in Zaporizhzhya. (Mathrubhumi)

• Violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of warfare, it strikes critical infrastructure and residential areas.
• There remains the threat of air and missile strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine. For example, during the past day, the occupiers launched 10 rocket and 19 air strikes, carried out more than 90 attacks from rocket salvo systems.
• As a result, over the past day, the infrastructure and civilians of more than 30 settlements were affected. Among them are Zaporizhzhia, Slovyansk, Novobakhmutivka, Siversk, Belogorivka, Nikopol and Blagodativka.
• The enemy used seven anti-aircraft guided missiles to attack Zaporizhzhia. Once again, the critical infrastructure of the city and the homes of peaceful civilians were affected.
• The situation in the Volyn and Poliske directions has not changed significantly.
• The enemy shelled in other directions:
  • in the Siversky direction – from mortars and barrel artillery, in the areas of Popivka, Starykove, Vorozhba, Yanzhulivka, and Myropillya settlements;
  • in the Slobozhansk direction – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of Chervona Zorya, Veterinarne, Strelecha, Mali Prohody, Vovchansk, Kamianka, Dvorichna and Hrynkivka settlements;
  • in the Kramatorsk direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery along the entire line of contact, in particular, in the areas of the settlements of Pershotravneve, Siversk, Makiivka, Novoehorivka, Stelmakhivka, Terny, Torske and Zarichne. Also, in the area of the settlement of Svatove, the enemy blew up railway and road bridge crossings;
  • in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery along the entire line of contact, in particular, in the areas of the settlements of Rozdolivka, Serebryanka, Bilogorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Zaitseve, Krasna Gora, Soledar. In addition, the occupiers mined the area in the Berestovo area;
  • in the Avdiyivsk direction – tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery shelled the areas of Avdiyivka, Kamianka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Pisky, Krasnohorivka and Maryinka settlements.
• More than 20 settlements were damaged by fire in the Novopavlovsk and Zaporizhzhya areas. In particular, Vugledar, Novopil, Shakhtarske, Mali Shcherbaki, Velika Novosilka, Malynivka and Mala Tokmachka.
• Enemy shelling in the areas of more than 25 settlements along the entire contact line was recorded in the South Buz direction. Near Dudchan, the enemy engaged an attack UAV. In total, the occupiers made up to 30 UAV sorties in the direction of aerial reconnaissance.

KHARKIV

Above: Ukrainian forces patrol in recently liberated Kupyansk. (RFERL)

Map via ISW

LUHANSK AND DONETSK

Above: Collecting war crime evidence at a mass grave near Lyman, Donetsk. (Reuters)

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian forces have likely liberated over 200 square kilometers of territory in western Luhansk Oblast as of October 10.
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground assaults in Donetsk Oblast on October 9 and 10. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut; north of Bakhmut near Bakhmutske and Soledar; and south of Bakhmut near Mayorsk, Ozaryanivka, Ivanhrad, and Niu York on October 9 and 10.
• Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Luhansk Oblast east of the Oskil River in the direction of Svatove and Kreminna on October 9 and 10 and have likely liberated over 200 square kilometers of territory in western Luhansk Oblast as of October 10.[21] Ukrainian forces captured Stel’makhivka (17 kilometers west of Svatove) on October 9, and Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai confirmed that Ukrainian forces liberated several settlements on the Oskil River-Kreminna Line including Novolyubivka, Nevske, Hrekivka, Novoiehorivka, Nadiia, and Andriivka.
• ISW’s assessment of Ukrainian forces’ front line places Ukrainian forces within 20 km of Svatove’s western side.
• Russian forces are likely preparing defenses in Starobilsk and Svatove in response to Ukraine’s northern counter-offensive. A Russian milblogger reported that the Wagner Group deployed approximately 1,000 personnel to the Russian force grouping in Lysychansk to reinforce the Luhansk sector and establish a defensive line that will run from Lysychansk along the Seversky Donets River back to Russian’s internationally recognized borders on October 9.
• Social media video reportedly shows Russian forces in Starobilsk forcing students to dig trenches on October 9.
• Russian forces blew up railway and bridge crossings near Svatove, are laying mines, and continued to prepare defenses in the area on October 10.
• Russian-backed occupation authorities reportedly established sites in Severodonetsk to mobilize Ukrainians on October 9. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on October 9 that Russian forces are prioritizing mobilizing Ukrainians with experience but also seek to fill personnel shortages with untrained and improperly equipped conscripts.
• Russian and occupation administration officials are concerned about the winter in Lysychansk, Rubizhne, and Severodonetsk, where many residents still do not have access to heat.

SOUTHERN

Above: Zaporizhzhya, Oct 9. (Reuters)

Map via ISW

• Russian and occupation administration officials are setting conditions to move up to 40,000 residents out of Kherson Oblast to Russian-occupied Crimea and the Russian Federation.
• Governors in Russian-occupied Crimea, Kransodar Krai, Stavropol Krai, and Rostov Oblast have agreed to take up to 10,000 people from Kherson Oblast. Propagandists have called the movement of Kherson Oblast residents as a “vacation” program for children and their parents.
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian and occupation administration officials in Zaporizhia Oblast have left Melitopol and Berdyansk completely without heat despite promises to repair damaged pipelines.
• Russian forces continued unsuccessful attempts to regain recently lost territory in northwest Kherson Oblast while reinforcing nearby positions with damaged and hastily mobilized units.
• Russian forces continued their unsuccessful attempts to regain lost positions in northern and northwestern Kherson Oblast on October 9 and October 10.
• Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that Russian forces up to the size of a motorized rifle platoon unsuccessfully attempted to attack Ukrainian positions in the direction of Davydiv Brid on the eastern bank of the Inhulets River.
• Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces transferred an additional 200 servicemen and up to 300 units of military equipment to reinforce areas of Ukrainian counter-offensives, but these forces are likely not sufficient for Russian forces to regain lost positions in northern Kherson Oblast. Russian sources also reported that mobilized men from Volgograd Oblast and the Republic of Kalmykia arrived in Kherson Oblast.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Donetsk People’s Republic‘s 127th Rifle Regiment of the 1st Army Corps has suffered critical losses after serving on the first line of combat in Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts, and that their families complained to Russian law enforcement about failures by the Russian military command to support them and about their poor living conditions.
• Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed three ammunition warehouses in Kherson and Beryslav Raions, and one control point in Kakhovka Raion.