Victory Chronicles
-DAY 231

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: SECOND DAY OF CIVILIAN AND POWER INFRASTRUCTURE MISSILE ATTACKS

Above: First responders battle fires caused by enemy missiles in Kyiv this week. (WLOS)

• Russian forces conducted massive missile strikes across Ukraine for the second day in a row on October 11. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces fired nearly 30 Kh-101 and Kh-55 cruise missiles from Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers and damaged critical infrastructure in Lviv, Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Ukrainian air defense reportedly destroyed 21 cruise missiles and 11 unmanned aerial vehicles.
• Russian forces additionally continued to launch attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure with Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones.
• Army General Sergey Surovikin’s previous experience as commander of Russian Armed Forces in Syria likely does not explain the massive wave of missile strikes across Ukraine over the past few days, nor does it signal a change in the trajectory of Russian capabilities or strategy in Ukraine.
• Disregard for international law and an enthusiasm for brutalizing civilian populations was standard operating procedure for Russian forces in Syria before, during, and after Surovikin’s tenure.  It has become part of the Russian way of war.
• Russian military officials may instead have coordinated Surovikin’s appointment and the October 10 cruise missile strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure to rehabilitate the perception of the Russian Ministry of Defense.
• The Russian Federation is likely extracting ammunition and other materiel from Belarusian storage bases—activity that is incompatible with setting conditions for a large-scale Russian or Belarusian ground attack against Ukraine from Belarus.
• The Russian military command continues to deploy newly mobilized servicemen without combat training to frontlines in eastern and southern Ukraine. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai reported that “thousands” of mobilized men are arriving in Luhansk Oblast but noted that only the first groups of these servicemen have any type of military experience.
• Russian and occupation administration officials continue to remove Ukrainian children from Russian-occupied territories.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Enemy losing massive amounts of equipment in eastern front. (Yahoo News)

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

• Liquidated personnel, 6,3380 +270
• Tanks, 2,505 +1
• Armored personnel vehicles, 5,181 (+19)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,507/355 (+11/2)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 182 (+1)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 268/235 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,129 (+15)
• Cruise missiles 315 (+20)
• Warships/boats, 15 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 3,927 (+11)
• Special equipment 136 (0)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Russian troops are heavily mining roads in Luhansk Oblast. (Yahoo News)

• Violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of war, it strikes critical infrastructure and residential areas.
• There remains the threat of air and missile strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine. For example, during the past day, the occupiers launched 10 rocket and 19 air strikes, carried out more than 90 attacks from rocket salvo systems.
• As a result, over the past day, the infrastructure and civilians of more than 30 settlements were affected. Among them are Zaporizhzhia, Slovyansk, Novobakhmutivka, Siversk, Belogorivka, Nikopol and Blagodativka.
• The enemy used seven anti-aircraft guided missiles to attack Zaporizhzhia. The critical infrastructure of the city and the homes of peaceful civilians were once again affected.
• The situation in the Volyn and Poliske directions has not changed significantly.
• The enemy shelled in other directions:
  • in the Siversky direction – from mortars and barrel artillery, in the areas of Popivka, Starykove, Vorozhba, Yanzhulivka, and Myropillya settlements;
  • in the Slobozhansk direction – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of Chervona Zorya, Veterinarne, Strelecha, Mali Prohody, Vovchansk, Kamianka, Dvorichna and Hrynkivka settlements;
  • in the Kramatorsk direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery along the entire line of contact, in particular, in the areas of the settlements of Pershotravneve, Siversk, Makiivka, Novoehorivka, Stelmakhivka, Terny, Torske and Zarichne. Also, in the area of ​​the settlement of Svatove, the enemy blew up railway and road bridge crossings;
  • in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery along the entire line of contact, in particular, in the areas of the settlements of Rozdolivka, Serebryanka, Bilogorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Zaitseve, Krasna Gora, Soledar. In addition, the occupiers mined the area in the Berestovo area;
  • in the Avdiyivsk direction – tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery shelled the areas of Avdiyivka, Kamianka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Pisky, Krasnohorivka and Maryinka settlements.
• More than 20 settlements were damaged by fire in the Novopavlovsk and Zaporizhzhya areas. In particular, Vugledar, Novopil, Shakhtarske, Mali Shcherbaki, Velika Novosilka, Malynivka and Mala Tokmachka.
• Enemy shelling in the areas of more than 25 settlements along the entire contact line was recorded in the South Buz direction. Near Dudchan, the enemy engaged an attack UAV. In total, the occupiers made up to 30 UAV sorties in the direction of aerial reconnaissance.

KHARKIV

Above: First responders battle fires at an electric power station in Kharkiv. Ukraine’s energy minister says about 30% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been damaged by enemy missiles this week. (NEXTA)

Map via ISW

LUHANSK AND DONETSK

Above: Ukrainian forces are pushing to take northern Luhansk oblast and cut off enemy supply lines. (Polish News)

Map via ISW

• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted a local counterattack and recaptured territories west of Kreminna while continuing to establish defensive positions in the Kreminna-Svatove area on October 11.
• A Ukrainian Telegram channel uploaded a video of Russian mobilized men complaining about their deployment to Svatove from Moscow Oblast only 11 days after being drafted and despite their minimal or nonexistent military experience.
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground assaults in Donetsk Oblast on October 11. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults near Bakhmut itself, northeast of Bakhkmut near Soledar and Bakhmutske, and south of Bakhmut near Mykolaivka and Mayorsk.
• The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian ground assault west of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske. A Russian source claimed that Russian forces conducted ground assaults in the directions of Nevelske and Pervomaiske.

SOUTHERN

Above: First responders battle blazes in a residential shopping area in Zaporizhzhya city this week.  (Guardian)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued routine artillery, air, and missile strikes west of Hulyaipole, and in Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa oblasts on October 10. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck Zaporizhia City, Mykolaiv City, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro City, and unspecified locations in Odesa Oblast.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian air defense destroyed eight Shahed-136 drones in Mykolaiv Oblast on the night of October 10 and 11.
• Ukrainian military officials largely maintained their operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground attacks in Kherson Oblast but reiterated that Ukrainian forces are continuing an interdiction campaign to target Russian military, technical, and logistics assets and concentration areas.
• Imagery posted on October 11 additionally shows damage to the Antonivsky Bridge in Kherson City following a Ukrainian HIMARS strike.
• Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian troops conducted ground attacks in northern and western Kherson Oblast on October 11.
•  A Russian milblogger similarly indicated that Ukrainian troops are preparing to advance south of the Davydiv Brid-Dudchany line and conducting artillery preparations for subsequent attacks on Russian positions in the direction of Beryslav.
• Russian sources reported explosions in Dzhankoy, Crimea, on October 11. A Russian milblogger reported that the explosion occurred at a rail junction between the Kherson-Kerch and Kharkiv-Sevastopol rail lines but did not identify a cause.
• The Head of the Kherson occupation administration Vladimir Saldo is currently implementing a program to take up to 40,000 children and adults from Kherson Oblast to Russian-occupied Crimea and the Russian Federation.
• The situation is critical in the 127th Rifle Regiment of the so-called 1st Army Corps. The hastily formed regiment was immediately transferred to the first line of combat in the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. Relatives of mobilized servicemen prepared an appeal to the law enforcement agencies of the Russian Federation about significant losses and the inaction of the military command. There are long interruptions with water and food in the subdivisions. Military personnel, at best, are equipped with old-fashioned protective equipment, which leads to numerous casualties.

ENEMY KIDNAPPING, TORTURING, BLACKMAILING ZNPP STAFF

Above: Dashcam video captured enemy missile strike in Zaporizhzhya this week. (Sky News)

• Russian occupation authorities intensified efforts to strengthen their physical control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in occupied Enerhodar, likely to set conditions to take control over ZNPP operations and integrate the ZNPP into the Russian power grid.
• Ukrainian nuclear agency Energoatom reported that Russian occupation authorities kidnapped and tortured the ZNPP’s Deputy General Director Valeriy Martynyuk on October 10 and continue to hold Martynyuk in an unknown location.
• Energoatom stated that Russian occupation authorities are torturing Martynyuk to obtain personal information about ZNPP personnel to force them into working for Russian nuclear agency Rosatom instead.[47] Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated that occupation authorities are forcing ZNPP personnel to sign contracts with Rosatom and use Russian passports for official work.
• Energoatom stated that Russian authorities have begun transporting beds, mattresses, heaters, and other household items to the ZNPP.[49] Energoatom stated that Russian authorities are either trying to establish a winter base at the ZNPP or intend to take Ukrainian ZNPP personnel hostage as they did during the occupation of the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant in February and March 2022.
• Zaporizhia Occupation Administration Council stated that the ZNPP has been reconnected to external power lines but that it is too early to talk about restarting the reactors.