Victory Chronicles
-DAY 232

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: ENEMY STRUGGLES TO DRAFT, CLOTHE AND EQUIP FIGHTERS

Above: Newly drafted enemy troops dispatched to Ukraine without training. (Kyiv Independent)

• Russia has seemingly intensified its information operation to falsely portray Ukraine as a terrorist state, likely to set information conditions to counter efforts to designate Russia as a terrorist state.
• Russian forces may have brought Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated personnel to occupied areas in Ukraine to train Russian troops in the use of Shahed-136 drones.
• The Russian government continues to send poorly disciplined mobilized Russians to Ukraine with little to no training. An anonymous Ukrainian military officer reportedly stated that hundreds of Russian convicts offered pardons for combat have already showed up on the battlefield in Ukraine and that some have gone absent without leave.
• More than 100 Russian conscripts from Bryansk reportedly refused to deploy to Ukraine from their base in Soloti, Belgorod Oblast.
• Russian and occupation administration officials continue to employ coercive measures against residents of Russian-occupied territories to generate forced support for Russian military operations in Ukraine. Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported on October 11 that Russian and occupation administration officials have detained and tortured more than 700 Melitopol residents in pursuit of coerced confessions and to compel cooperation with the Zaporizhia occupation administration.
• The Russian military continued facing problems equipping individual Russian soldiers with basic personal equipment—including winter gear. Sevastopol occupation governor Mikhail Razvozhayev announced that a Sevastopol entrepreneurial clothing brand organized a group of local seamstresses and sewed almost 400 pairs of thermal underwear for Russian forces for free when the brand learned that Russian forces need winter clothing.
• One Russian milblogger stated that Russian soldiers complain too much and that running out of basic provisions like underwear, toilet paper, and soap is just a harsh reality of war.
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian forces quartering in Ukrainian schools during the Ukrainian school year means that these measures amount to Russian forces using schoolchildren as “human shields,” although ISW has no independent confirmation that the schools are in use by troops or students at this time.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: The invader is Ukraine’s biggest donor of equipment and munitions. (RFERL) 

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

• Liquidated personnel, 63,800 (+420)
• Tanks, 2,511 (+6)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 5,167 (+11)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,556/357 (+17/2)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 183 (+2)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 268/240 (+0/6)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,182 (+33)
• Cruise missiles, 316 (+21)
• Warships/boats, 16 (+1)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 3,935 (+9)
• Special equipment, 140 (+4)

KHARKIV

Above: Ukrainian soldiers fire artillery in Kharkiv.  (World Politics Review)

Map via ISW

• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations in the direction of Svatove and Kreminna on October 12. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian forces in the vicinity of Kyslivka, Kharkiv Oblast (25km northwest of Svatove).
• Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces continued routine indirect fire in the Kupyansk direction.

LUHANSK AND DONETSK

Above: On the frontlines near Toretsk, Donetsk.  (The Guardian)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 12. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults near Bakhmut; to the northeast of Bakhmut near Soledar, Spirne, and Bakhmutske; and to the south of Bakhmut near Mayorsk, Ivanhrad, and Mykolaivka.
• A Russian source reiterated claims that Wagner Group forces entrenched themselves in Ivanhrad and advanced within a few kilometers of the center of Bakhmut.
• A Russian source also claimed that Russian forces seized an unspecified “important” road junction northeast of Bakhmut, likely referring to the E40 and T1302 intersection.
• Russian forces continued to conduct counterattacks west of Kreminna while strengthening defensive positions in the Svatove-Kreminna area on October 12.
• Ukrainian and social media sources reported that Russian forces continue efforts to establish trenches and fortified defensive positions along the Kreminna-Svatove line.
• Russian forces may be conducting counterattacks west of Kreminna to delay Ukrainian advances and buy Russian forces time to reinforce and resupply units and strengthen defensive positions in the Kreminna-Svatove area. However, the Russian elements in this area are likely substantially understrength.
• The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks west of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske and west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka.

SOUTHERN

Above: Satellite image of cargo trucks backed up to the Kerch Strait Bridge in Kerch, Crimea on October 12. (The Guardian)

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian military officials confirmed that Ukrainian troops liberated five settlements in northern Kherson Oblast and otherwise maintained operational silence regarding specific Ukrainian ground maneuvers in this area on October 12.
• Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Ukrainian troops successfully retook control of Novovasylivka, Novohryhorivka, Nova Kamianka, Trifonivka, and Chervone—all settlements in northern Kherson Oblast within 25km south of the Dnipropetrosk Oblast border that Ukrainian forces liberated around October 4.
• Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian troops conducted counteroffensive operations in northwestern and western Kherson Oblast on October 12.
• Several milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are continuing efforts to push south of the current frontline in northwestern Kherson Oblast and attacking toward Mylove (30km northeast of Beryslav along the western bank of the Dnipro River).
• Russian sources additionally claimed that Ukrainian troops are attempting to advance past the Davydiv Brid pocket in western Kherson Oblast, with several milbloggers indicating that Ukrainians attacked toward Ishchenka and Kostromka (both within 10km south of Davyid Brid) from positions near Davydiv Brid.
• Russian forces are likely unable to conduct offensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast; the RIA Novosti report is likely a response to the sustained milblogger concern over a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south.
• Russian milbloggers continue expressing concern that Ukrainian forces are preparing to launch a counteroffensive in Zaporizhia Oblast but are divided about whether the attack is imminent or postponed.
• Russian forces have likely increased their usage of logistics lines through southern Zaporizhia and western Donetsk oblasts after the Kerch Bridge attack. Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Adviser Petro Andryushchenko posted footage on October 12 of Russian military equipment, including transport trucks, fuel trucks, and engineering equipment, headed both east and west from Mariupol.
• Russian and Ukrainian sources exchanged accusations of shelling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on October 12; the shelling disconnected the ZNPP from external power lines for the second time in five days.
• Ukrainian state nuclear agency Energoatom reported on October 12 that Ukrainian engineers restored the ZNPP to the Ukrainian power grid.