Victory Chronicles
-DAY 233

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: ENEMY OFFENSIVES STALLING DUE TO INCOMPETENCE, CORRUPTION

Above: Enemy draftees with bad smoking habit, especially in unauthorized places, are risking their health.  (Lithuania Posts)

• Public reports of the first deaths of ill-prepared mobilized Russian troops in Ukraine have sparked renewed criticism of the Russian military command.
• Pro-war milbloggers claim that the number of dead and wounded among mobilized servicemen is likely higher due to lack of promised training, equipment, unit cohesion, and commanders, as well as repeated instances of wrongful mobilization.
• Russian incompetence continues to take its toll on mobilized personnel before they ever reach the front lines, likely exacerbating already-low morale.
• Russian officials are likely increasingly limiting freedom of movement in Russia to preserve additional mobilizable populations and prevent them from fleeing the country.
• The Kremlin continues to struggle to message itself out of the reality of mobilization and military failures.
• Russian forces continued to launch strikes on critical Ukrainian infrastructure on October 13. Russian forces are likely continuing to use Iranian Shahed-136 drones to support massive strike campaigns against critical Ukrainian infrastructure due to their low efficacy in active combat situations.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is likely continuing efforts to distinguish himself and Wagner Group forces from more conventional Russian and proxy troops.
• Increasingly degraded morale, discipline, and combat capabilities among Russian troops in combat zones in Ukraine may be leading to temporary suspensions in offensive operations in limited areas.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Ukrainian defender collects abandoned enemy ammo. (Seattle Times)

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

• Liquidated personnel 64,300 (+500)
• Tanks, 2,521 (+10)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 5,172 (+5)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,566/362 (+10/5)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 186 (+3)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 268/240 (+0/4)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,199 (+17)
• Cruise missiles, 316 (+21)
• Warships/boats, 16 (+1)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 3,944 (+9)
• Special equipment, 142 (+2)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Ukrainians must bear the pain of unimaginable loss.  (AP)

• The enemy does not stop striking the critical infrastructure and civilian facilities of our country. During the past 24 hours, objects and peaceful citizens of the settlements of Brody, Nalyvaykivka of the Kyiv region, Mykolaiv and Nikopol were damaged.
• The enemy used cruise, aviation, anti-aircraft guided missiles and strike unmanned aerial vehicles of Iranian production to carry out the strikes.
• In general, over the past day, the occupiers have launched 2 rocket and 16 air strikes, carried out more than 70 MLRS attacks.
• The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly.
• The enemy fired in other directions:
  • in the Siversky direction – from mortars and barrel artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Ukrainske, Atynske, Velyka Rybytsia of the Sumy oblast and Mykolaivka of the Chernihiv oblast;
  • in the Slobozhansk direction – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery in the areas of the settlements of Strilecha, Ohirtseve, Starytsa, Hatyshche, Dvorichna and Hryanikyvka;
  • in the Kramatorsk direction – from artillery of various types, in the areas of the settlements of Spirne, Terny, Zarichne, Nadiya, Olhivka, Torske, Bilohorivka, Yampolivka and Travneve;
  • in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery along the entire line of contact. In particular, in the areas of the settlements of Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Ivanhrad, Zelenopillia, Soledar, Mayorsk, Chasiv Yar and Opytne;
  • in the Avdiivka direction – from tanks and artillery of various calibers, in the areas of Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Vodyane, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, Nevelske, Pervomaiske, and Zolota Nyva settlements.
• On the Novopavlivskyi and Zaporizhia directions, the areas of the settlements of Vuhledar, Novoukrayinka, Vremivka, Novoandriivka, Novodanylivka, Dorozhnianka, Hulyaipole and Komyshuvaha were shelled.
• Areas of settlements near the contact line were damaged by fire in the South Buh direction. Nikopol and Vyshchetarasivka were directly affected by the fire of the occupiers.

KHARKIV

Above: Ukraine territorial defense deminers discover a civilian mine victim in Kharkiv. (Seattle Times)

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian forces made gains in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast northwest of Svatove on October 13.
• Geolocated video footage posted on October 13 shows Ukrainian forces capturing Russian troops who voluntarily surrendered near the N26 highway in Krokhmalne, about 20km northwest of Svatove. The footage likely indicates that Ukrainian troops have also taken control of the surrounding settlements of Pischane, Berestove, and Tabaivka.

LUHANSK AND DONETSK

Above: Bakhmut residents cross a destroyed bridge.  (Reuters)

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian forces made gains northwest of Svatove.
• Russian forces are continuing defensive operations in anticipation of potential Ukrainian attacks towards Kreminna.
• The chief of staff of the Russian Combat Reserve of the Country battalion in Kreminna claimed on October 13 that BARS-13 is “firmly” holding the defense of the settlement and have full control of the Svatove-Kreminna and Kreminna-Rubizhne roads.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast and claimed to make marginal advances south of Bakhmut.
• The Donetsk People’s Republic Territorial Defense Force claimed that DNR troops took control of Ivanhrad and Opytne (4km southeast of Bakhmut). However, Wagner Group financier Evgeny Prigozhin claimed that Wagner Group forces single handedly took control of Ivanhrad and that Opytne remains under Ukrainian control as fighting continues on its outskirts.

ZAPORIZHZHYA AND KHERSON

Above: Local residents, first responders help with rescue and recovery in Zaporizhzhya. (Kyiv Independent)

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian forces to the banks of the Dnipro River in places and have cut Russian supply lines across the river in recent weeks.
• Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Russian troops are attempting to recapture positions in northern and northwestern Kherson Oblast.
• Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully continued to attack previously occupied positions in northern and northwestern Kherson Oblast on October 13.
• Damage to the Kerch Strait Bridge continues to impede the movement of Russian supplies and personnel to southern Ukraine.
• Russian occupation officials called for the evacuation of civilians from occupied Kherson Oblast. However, Deputy Kherson Occupation Administration Head Kirill Stremousov claimed on October 13 that the call was not an evacuation but rather an opportunity for a “temporary stay and rest” in other regions.
• Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command spokesperson, Nataliya Humenyuk, noted that Ukrainian forces are continuing to target Russian pontoon and barge crossings across the Dnipro and Inhulets rivers.
• Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed a command and observation post in Beryslav Raion and destroyed five ammunition warehouses in unspecified locations.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces also struck a Russian manpower concentration area in Tokarivka (approximately 30km east of Kherson City), killing 150 Russian servicemen.
• The damage to the Kerch Strait Bridge likely continues to slow down deliveries of Russian supplies and personnel to southern Ukraine. Krym Realii published satellite imagery of over 1,000 trucks on the Russian side of the bridge waiting in a three-to-four-day line to cross the strait via the ferry. Krym Realii found that there are only four ferries operating with a capacity of 90 trucks and 300 people each.
• Russian nuclear operator Rosenergoatom claimed on October 13 that the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will switch to Russian nuclear fuel when the ZNPP uses up all its available nuclear fuel reserves. However, President of Ukrainian nuclear operator Energoatom Petro Kotin refuted claims that the ZNPP must be refueled soon emphasizing that there are still two years’ worth of nuclear fuel at the plant, which he emphasized remains under the control of Ukrainian staff.
• In the city of Enerhodar, on October 10-11, an increase in the personnel of the russian occupying forces was noted on the territory of the nuclear power plant. According to the available information, the occupiers use the station as a base for the placement of personnel, due to the fact that the object is not fired upon.