UKRAINIAN WORLD CONGRESS

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DAY 238

Victory Chronicles
-DAY 238

October 19,2022

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: KREMLIN DOWNPLAYS MOBILIZATION IN WEALTHY WESTERN AREAS, TARGETS POOR MINORITY EASTERN AREAS

Above: It is commonly believed that most newly-mobilized russians won’t be coming home. (New York Times)

  • Russian forces continued to target critical Ukrainian civilian infrastructure with air, missile, and drone strikes on October 18.There is still a threat of missile and air strikes, as well as the use of “Shahed-136” attack UAVs from the territory of the republic of belarus.
  • Current and former US officials confirmed to the New York Times on October 18 that members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are in Russian-occupied Crimea to train Russian forces on how to use the Iranian drones they purchased, thereby enabling likely Russian war crimes.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unequal implementation of partial mobilization is causing social fractures that are driving the Russian information space to further marginalize ethnic minority communities.
  • Belarus continues to provide its territory and airspace to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine but remains highly unlikely to enter the war on Russia’s behalf.
  • The republic of belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine, providing its infrastructure and airspace. Covert mobilization of the belarusian armed forces continues under the guise of training sessions. According to available information, measures are being taken to train operators of anti-aircraft missile systems and tank crews.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirmed that mobilization ended on October 17 in Moscow Oblast, and Russian civilians continue to express their dissatisfaction with Russian mobilization.
  • Mobilization will likely continue to disproportionately affect poorer and majority-minority oblasts in the coming weeks as Russian officials wind down mobilization to prepare to administer the delayed but usual autumn conscription cycle, which is set to begin November 1.
  • Despite the preliminary mobilization exclusion of employees of russian critical infrastructure, the heads of such enterprises are forced to send their employees to the military commissariats.
  • The replenishment of losses of russian units at the expense of prisoners continues. As of the beginning of October, more than half of the total eight thousand fighters of the private military company “Wagner” are mercenaries of the mentioned category.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Destroyed enemy equipment near Mykolaiv. (New York Times)

  • Liquidated personnel, 66,280 (+430)
  • Tanks, 2,554 (+6)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 5,235 (+16)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,637/372 (+15/0)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 189 (+1)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 269/242 (+1/0)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 1,286 (+10)
  • Cruise missiles, 323 (+5)
  • Warships/boats, 16 (+1)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 3,999 (+14)
  • Special equipment, 146 (+2)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Lady hugs her dog after enemy missiles rained down on Mykolaiv Tuesday. (BBC)

  • During the current day, the enemy launched 9 missile and 10 air strikes, carried out more than 10 MLRS attacks.
  • Areas of more than 10 settlements were hit by the enemy. Among them are Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kurakhove in the Donetsk oblast and Trykhaty in the Mykolaiv oblast. For this, the enemy used cruise, aviation and anti-aircraft guided missiles. In addition, in one of the directions, the occupiers used 4 unmanned aerial vehicles of Iranian production “Shahed-136”, 3 of which shot down units of the Defense Forces.
  • The enemy fired in other directions:
    • in the Siverskyi direction – from barrel artillery, within the Yunakivka settlement of Sumy oblast;
    • in the Slobozhanskyi direction – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Vovchanski Khutory, Hryhorivka, Komisarove, Ohirtseve, Starytsa, and Strilecha;
    • in the Kupyansk direction – from artillery of various types, in the areas of the settlements of Berestove, Hryanykivka, Dvorichna, Kamianka, Krasne, Kislivka, Kotlyarivka and Stelmakhivka;
    • in the Lymanskyi direction – from mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Bilohorivka, Hrekivka, Zarichne, Kovalivka, Nadiya, Novoyehorivka, Olhivka and Torske.
  • On the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions, the enemy fired tanks and artillery along the contact line. The settlements of Bakhmut, Soledar, Pervomaiske and Velyka Novosilka were directly affected.
  • On the Novopavlivsky and Zaporizhzhia directions, the enemy fired mortars, barrel and rocket artillery at the settlements of Pavlivka and Prechistivka.
  • In the South Buh direction, the enemy is trying to improve logistical support, is shelling military and civilian infrastructure. Settlements along the contact line, including Vyshchetarasivka of the Dnipropetrovsk oblast, were damaged by fire.

KHARKIV

Above: As residents start to rebuild, shelling continued in liberated Kupyansk this week. (New York Times)

Map via ISW
  • Russian troops conducted a limited ground attack in northern Kharkiv Oblast on October 18, seemingly suggesting that Russian forces may retain territorial aspirations in Kharkiv Oblast despite massive losses during recent Ukrainian counteroffensives.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff and Russian sources notably stated that Russian forces shelled Kotlyarivka, just south of Kyslivka, indicating Ukrainian forces have advanced southeast of Kupyansk up to the Kotlyarivka area.

LUHANSK AND DONETSK

Above: Unable to take the city for months, the enemy is reducing the city of Bakhmut, Donetsk, to rubble. (Free Radio)

Map via ISW
  • The Russian MoD claimed that Russian troops repelled Ukrainian attempts to cross the Zherebets River around Stelmakhivka and Andriivka, both about 14km west of Svatove.
  • A Russian milblogger also reported that Russian troops stopped Ukrainian forces from advancing directly on Svatove.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack on Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast (10km south of Kreminna), which suggests that Russian troops continue to conduct limited ground attacks in western Luhansk Oblast to regain ground near the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area.
  • Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks northeast of Bakhmut near Bakhmutske and south of Bakhmut near Ivanhrad and Klishchiivka.

KHERSON AND ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: Enemy is using a dwindling supply of artillery to destroy residential buildings, here in Mykolaiv yesterday.  (Kyiv Independent

Map via ISW
  • Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations across the entire frontline in Kherson Oblast.
  • Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and ammunition depots in central Kherson Oblast.
  • Ukraine’s Southern Operational command reported that Ukrainian forces conducted about 100 fire missions and destroyed two Russian ammunition depots near or around Beryslav on October 18.
  • Russian occupation officials are attempting to incentivize Ukrainian citizens under Russian control in northern Kherson Oblast to flee to Russia as Ukrainian forces advance, and occupation authorities may increasingly force Ukrainian civilians to relocate further behind the frontlines or to Russia in the coming days.
  • Russian authorities are struggling to cope with their reduced logistics capacity through Crimea following the attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge. Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Construction and Regional Development Marat Khusnullin stated on October 18 that authorities will complete dismantling the damaged spans of the Crimean bridge by the end of December 2022, indicating that Russian forces will likely have reduced logistics capabilities through Crimea for months.
  • Russian occupation authorities kidnapped Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant personnel, likely to strengthen physical control over the ZNPP’s operations.

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