Victory Chronicles
-DAY 240

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: KREMLIN HOPING TEHRAN AND MINSK WILL HELP SOLVE INCOMPETENCY CHALLENGES

Above: Belarusian soldiers line up for joint exercises with their aggressive neighbor. (RFERL)

• The White House confirmed on October 20 that Iranian military personnel are in Russian-occupied Crimea, Ukraine, to assist Russian forces in conducting drone attacks on Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure.
• Iran is providing military support to Russian forces in Ukraine despite new international sanctions likely in part because Iranian leaders believe that they need Moscow’s help to upend the US-led global order.
• The risk of a Russian offensive from Belarus into northern Ukraine remains low despite a prominent Ukrainian official’s October 20 warning that the risk of a Russian offensive from Belarus is “growing.”
• Russian regional governments and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continue to blame each other for military administrative failures.
• A Russian milblogger reported that the situation with Russian mobilized men having bad equipment is improving in terms of public attention and prioritization but that Russian troops are still receiving bad equipment. The milblogger argued that Russian forces receiving body armor may not make a difference since Russian body armor issued to mobilized forces demonstrably does not protect against small arms.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: New York Times

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

• Liquidated personnel, 66,750 +(100)
• Tanks, 2,573 (+6)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 5,258 (+3)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,648/372 (+2/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 189 (+2/0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 269/243 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,325 (+14)
• Cruise missiles, 329 (0)
• Warships/boats, 16 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,006 (+1)
• Special equipment, 147 (0)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: RTL Today

Below: Ukrainians are making body armor for children.  (RFERL)

• Violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of war, it continues to strike critical infrastructure and the homes of the civilian population.
• During the current day, the enemy launched 3 missile and 20 air strikes, carried out up to 10 MLRS attacks.
• Up to 20 settlements were hit by the enemy. In particular, Terny, Bakhmut, Vuhledar and Komyshuvakha of the Donetsk oblast.
• The enemy has once again launched a massive attack using iranian attack UAVs on the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine. Out of 20 UAVs, 15 were successfully shot down by the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
• The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly. The republic of belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine. The threat of missile strikes and the use of attack UAVs on the territory of Ukraine remains.
• The enemy shelled in other directions:
  • in the Siversky direction – from mortars and barrel artillery, within the Mykolaivka and Kostobrody settlements of the Chernihiv oblast. Also, the enemy used unmanned aerial vehicles with a combat load;
  • in the Slobozhanskyi direction – from mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Dvorichne, Krasne, and Strilecha. The activity of UAVs with a combat load was also recorded;
  • on the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions – from mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of Zarichne, Bilohorivka, Torske, Terny and Yampolivka settlements;
  • in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions, the enemy fired from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery in the areas of the settlements of Bakhmut, Soledar, Zelenopillya and Yakovlivka.
• The occupiers did not conduct active offensive actions in the Novopavlivsk and Zaporizhzhia directions. Fire damage was inflicted on the positions of the Defense Forces and civilian infrastructure in the areas of more than 35 settlements along the entire line of contact.
• In the South Buh direction, more than 30 settlements along the contact line suffered fire damage. To conduct aerial reconnaissance, the enemy made up to 40 sorties of UAVs of various types.

KHARKIV

Above: Enemy rockets from Belgorod, russia, hit Khakiv in early dawn. (RFERL)

Map via ISW

• Russian sources continued to claim that Russian forces are consolidating limited regained positions in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast on October 20 despite Ukrainian reports that Ukraine has liberated all but 1.8% of Kharkiv Oblast.
• Ukrainian Kharkiv Oblast Head Oleh Synehubov noted that Ukrainian troops have liberated all but 1.8 percent (32 unspecified villages) of an unspecified area of Kharkiv Oblast, which suggests that unsubstantiated Russian claims of regained territory in this area likely reflect extremely limited gains compared to the recent sweeping Ukrainian counteroffensive that retook almost the entire oblast.

LUHANSK AND DONETSK

Above: Enemy leaves its mark in Kamyanka.  (New York Times)

Map via ISW

• Russian and Ukrainian forces likely continued fighting along the Svatove-Kreminna line on October 20. Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai reported heavy fighting along the frontline in the directions of Kreminna and Svatove.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut, northeast of Bakhmut near Bakhmutske (11km northeast of Bakhmut), southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and Opytne (4km south of Bakhmut).
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack near Bilohorivka, about 10km south of Kreminna in the vicinity of Lysychansk.
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground assaults in Donetsk Oblast but Russian sources contradicted their own claims on control of Bakhmut. Russian forces are likely continuing to falsify claims of advances in the Bakhmut area to portray themselves as making gains in at least one sector amid continuing losses in northeast and southern Ukraine.

KHERSON AND ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: Enemy troops evacuating Kherson over the Dnipro by ferry.  (RFERL)

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian military officials offered limited insight into ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive actions in Kherson Oblast on October 20. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian units are active along the entire frontline and that Russian troops are taking defensive measures, regrouping, engineering fortifications, and mining areas of projected Ukrainian advance.
• Deputy chief of the Main Operational Department of the Ukrainian General Staff, Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov, noted that Russia has concentrated up to 45 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in the Kherson ”direction” to defend against ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives.
• Russian sources indicated that Ukrainian troops have advanced in northern Kherson Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) acknowledged on October 20 that Ukrainian forces penetrated Russian defenses around Sukhanove, about 30km north of Beryslav, and claimed Russian forces repelled the attack.
• Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Ukrainian strikes destroyed two Russian ammunition depots around Beryslav on October 19.[27] Social media footage and reports from residents of Nova Kakhovka showed explosions following Ukrainian strikes in the area on October 20.
• Russia is likely continuing to prepare for a false flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant.
• Russian forces are likely setting conditions to remove military and occupation elements from the west bank of the Dnipro River in anticipation of imminent Ukrainian advances.
• Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces struck energy infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih Raion with S-300 missiles.
• Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces conducted drone attacks in Mykolaiv Oblast and that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 Russian drones and reported Ukrainian forces intercepted most of the drones.