Victory Chronicles
-DAY 246

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: MOSCOW SAYS UKRAINE HAS NO RIGHT TO EXIST

Above: Ukraine is spilling blood and treasure for its right to exist. (Aljazeera)

• Putin stated that Ukraine has “lost sovereignty” in a meeting with Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) security officials on October 26. Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin amplified this narrative, stating that “Ukraine has lost the ability to exist as a state,” “Ukraine is occupied by NATO,” and “[Ukraine] has become a colony of the US” on October 26.
• This language is incompatible with negotiations on an equal basis for a ceasefire, let alone a resolution to the conflict that Russia began. It instead strongly suggests that the Kremlin still seeks a military victory in Ukraine and regime change in Kyiv.
• A Reuters investigation of a document trove found in an abandoned Russian command post in Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, supports ISW’s longstanding assessments about the poor condition of Russian forces.  ISW has long assessed that the conventional Russian military in Ukraine is severely degraded and has largely lost offensive capabilities since the summer of 2022, that Russian strategic commanders have been micromanaging operational commanders’ decisions on tactical matters, and that Russian morale is very low.
• Russian officials continued to admit that Russia is deporting children to Russia under the guise of adoption and vacation schemes. Russian media reported on October 26 that the Russian Commissioner for Children’s Rights, Maria Lvova-Belova, adopted a Ukrainian child who was deported from Mariupol to Russia.
• The Russian military is reportedly trying to leverage foreigners to support its war in Ukraine. Foreign Policy reported on October 25 that Russian actors—reportedly of Russia’s Wagner Group—are contacting members of the US-trained Afghan National Army Commando Corps to recruit them to join a Russian “foreign legion” to fight in Ukraine.
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Belarusian military commissariats in Gomel Oblast mobilized Belarusian drivers and mechanics to repair Russian military equipment in Belarus.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Yahoo

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

• Liquidated personnel, 69,220 (+320)
• Tanks, 2,631 (+3)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 5,364 (+13)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,690/379 (+4/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 192 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 271/249 (+0/1)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,398 (+19)
• Cruise missiles, 351 (+1)
• Warships/boats, 16 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4078 (+2)
• Special equipment, 150 (+1)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Destroyed residential buildings in small village in Donetsk Oblast. (AP)

• Violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of war, it continues to strike critical infrastructure and the homes of the civilian population.
• Over the past day, the enemy launched 5 rocket and up to 30 air strikes, launched more than 100 MLRS attacks.
• Areas of more than 40 settlements were hit by enemy attacks. Among them are the city of Dnipro and the oblast, Prykolotne in the Kharkiv oblast and Velyka Oleksandrivka in the Kherson oblast.
• The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly. The republic of belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. The threat of missile strikes and the use of attack UAVs on the territory of Ukraine remains.
• The enemy shelled in other directions:
  • in the Siverskyi direction – from mortars and barrel artillery, in the areas of Starykove, Seredyna-Buda, Basivka, Mykolaivka, Ryzhivka settlements. Strike drones were also used;
  • in the Slobozhanskyi direction – with the use of mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of Vilkhuvatka, Budarka, Shevchenkove, Strilecha and Dvorichna settlements;
  • in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions – from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Berestove, Pershotravneve, Nevske, Bilohorivka, Serhiivka and Spirne;
  • in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Soledar, Ivanhrad, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Mayorsk and Odradivka;
  • in the Avdiivka direction – from tanks and artillery of various types, in the areas of Novomykhailivka, Pervomaiske, Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Nevelske, and Novokalynove settlements.
• On the Novopavlivskyi and Zaporizhzhia directions, enemy shelled positions of the Defence Forces and civilian infrastructure in the areas of Vremivka, Vuhledar, Zaliznychne, Novopil and Poltavka settlements.
• More than 15 settlements along the contact line were hit by fire in the South Buh direction. To conduct aerial reconnaissance, the enemy made up to 20 sorties of UAVs of various types.

KHARKIV

Above: Fall rain and mud have arrived, slowing down operations.  (General Staff)

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 26 that Ukrainian forces repelled an attack on Ternova (40km northeast of Kharkiv city) which is well removed from areas encompassed by the eastern Ukrainian counteroffensive.
• Russian forces likely do not intend to regain limited territory in border areas of Kharkiv Oblast but instead likely hope to keep Ukrainian forces in the area that otherwise could join counteroffensive operations.

LUHANSK AND DONETSK

Above: The enemy bravely destroyed a threatening sports field in Bakhmut, Donetsk. (Rediff)

Map via ISW

• Several milbloggers claimed that Russian forces repelled multiple attempted Ukrainian attacks toward Svatove.  Another prominent milblogger posted a map that indicates that Ukrainian forces have advanced up to Dzherelne, about 16km due west of Svatove.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 26. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself, northeast of Bakhmut around Bakhmutske (10km northeast of Bakhmut) and Soledar (12km northeast of Bakhmut), and south of Bakhmut around Ivanhrad (4km south of Bakhmut), Kurdiumivka (13km southwest of Bakhmut), and Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut).
• The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled limited Russian attacks north and west of Donetsk City and in western Donetsk Oblast.

KHERSON AND ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: Volunteers distribute wood stoves to residents in Mykolaiv Oblast. (Rediff)

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian military officials largely maintained operation silence regarding Ukrainian ground maneuvers in Kherson Oblast on October 26.
• Russian forces continued to prepare for the defensive on both the west and east banks of the Dnipro River on October 26. Russian sources reported that Russian forces are building fortifications in Kherson City and creating strongholds in case of future Ukrainian breakthroughs.
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian forces in Nova Kakhovka are preparing defenses in the city for street fighting.
• Russian and occupation administration officials in Kherson Oblast continued to relocate residents from the west bank of the Dnipro River to the east bank on October 26. Kherson occupation administration claimed on October 26 that Russian and occupation authorities have relocated 70,000 residents from the west bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast in the past week, that 40,000 Kherson residents have resettled on the east bank of the Dnipro River and an unspecified number have resettled in other Russian-occupied territories and the Russian Federation itself.