UKRAINIAN WORLD CONGRESS

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DAY 252

Victory Chronicles
-DAY 252

November 2,2022

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: IRAN WILL GIVE RU BALLISTIC MISSILES TO TERRORIZE CIVILIANS

Above: Cheap Iranian drones are launched in swarms to help a few get through despite air defense systems. (Times of Israel)

  • Iran plans to send more combat drones and new ballistic missile systems to Russia for use in Ukraine, likely further strengthening Russia’s reliance on Iranian-made weapon systems.
  • CNN reported on November 1 that unnamed officials from a western country that closely monitors Iranian weapons programs stated that Iran plans to send a thousand weapons to Russia by the end of the year, including surface-to-surface short-range ballistic missiles and combat drones.
  • This would be the first confirmed instance of Iran sending Russia advanced precision-guided missiles. Russia likely negotiated the additional Iranian shipment of weapons systems due to the depletion of its stockpile of cruise missile and drone systems over the course of the war in Ukraine, particularly during the Russian campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure.
  • The GUR reported that Iran will send Russia the drones in a disassembled state and that Russian personnel will assemble them with Russian markings.

ENEMY MOBILIZATION

Above: “We don’t want to be cannon fodder”. (Perild)

  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) started its semi-annual fall conscription drive on November 1, amidst reports of continuing covert mobilization throughout the country. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced that 2,700 draft committees across 85 federal subjects began the fall conscription call-up of 120,000 men.
  • Numerous Russian sources reported that Russian enlistment officers are continuing to mobilize men despite Shoigu’s previous announcements of the conclusion of partial mobilization and transition into the conscription period on October 28. Local Russian outlets reported instances of men receiving mobilization notices in Tyumen and St. Petersburg as of October 31.
  • Russian sources reported on November 1 that the commander of a military base in Chita, Zabaykalsky Krai, expelled mobilized servicemen from the grounds of the base ahead of Zabaykalsky Krai Governor Alexander Osipov’s visit to the base. Russian sources cited fears that the servicemen would ask Osipov “uncomfortable questions about supplies.”
  • The Belarusian MoD similarly reported that Belarus and Russia are planning to create joint training centers for the combined training of Russian and Belarusian military personnel. Such measures are ostensibly intended to expand the training and development capabilities of the Russian military, potentially in response to widespread and systemic issues with training mobilized reservists under the partial mobilization order.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above:  Ukrainian servicemen repair a captured enemy tank. (Aljazeera)

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last 24 hours

  • Liquidated personnel, 73,270 (+800)
  • Tanks, 2,714 (+16)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 5,525 (+24)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,733/387 (+3/4)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 198 (+1)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 277/258 (+1/1)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 1,438 (+23)
  • Cruise missiles, 397 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 16 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,153 (+10)
  • Special equipment 154 (0)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Destroyed historical buildings in Mykolaiv. (New Voice of Ukraine)

  • The enemy continues to strike critical infrastructure and civilian homes in violation of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of war.
  • Over the past day, the enemy launched 7 missile and 47 air strikes, launched more than 90 MLRS attacks.
  • Areas of more than 25 settlements were hit by enemy attacks. Among them are Kramatorsk, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Mykilske in Zaporizhzhia oblast and Pavlivka in Donetsk oblast.
  • The threat of new strikes and the use of attack UAVs remains, in particular, from the territory of the republic of belarus.
  • In the Volyn and Polissya directions, the situation remains without significant changes. The republic of belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine.
  • The enemy shelled in other directions:
    • in the Siversky direction – from mortars and barrel artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Hai and Senkivka in the Chernihiv oblast and Mefedivka, Vovkivka, Zarutske, Myropillya, Hirka, Yunakivka, Zapsillia and Oleksandrivka in the Sumy oblast;
    • in the Slobozhanskyi direction – from mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of Hlyboke, Kamianka, Vilkhuvatka, Neskuchne, Vovchansk, Kozacha Lopan, Milove, Starytsa, Strilecha, Veterynarne, Udy and Chuhunivka settlements;
    • in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions – from mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Dvorichna, Kupyansk, Kucherivka, Kislivka, Berestove, Dvorichne, Hrekivka, Zarichne, Ivanivka, Kotlyarivka, Makiivka, Nadiya, Nevske, Yampolivka and Terny;
    • in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks and artillery of various types, in the areas of the settlements of Spirne, Bilohorivka, Rozdolivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Ivanhrad, Opytne, Zelenopillia and Mayorsk;
    • in the Avdiivka direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of Avdiivka, Maryinka, Vodyane, Paraskoviivka, Kamianka, Krasnohorivka, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Netaylove and Novomykhailivka settlements;
    • in the Novopavlivskyi direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of Bohoyavlenka, Pavlivka, Velyka Novosilka, Prechystivka, Vuhledar, Novomayorske, Vremivka, Neskuchne and Paraskoviivka settlements;
    • in the Zaporizhzhia direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Hulyaipole, Hulyaipilske, Mali Shcherbaki, Novoandriivka, Orihiv, Pavlivka, Zaliznychne, Dorozhnyanka, Stepove, Olhivske, Malynivka, Novodanilivka and Chervone.
  • More than 18 settlements along the contact line were hit by fire in the South Buh direction. The city of Nikopol and the village of Illinka in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast were hit by shelling from enemy rocket launchers.

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Ukrainian servicemen near Kupyansk. (New York Times)

Map via ISW
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations in the direction of Svatove on November 1. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults northwest of Svatove in the directions of Mykolaivka and Kuzemivka (14km northwest of Svatove) in Luhansk Oblast and near Orlyanske, Kharkiv Oblast (30km northwest of Svatove).
  • Russian sources claimed that Russian BARS (Combat Reserve) 13 and 16 detachments are currently defending areas in the Svatove direction. The BARS-13 commander reported that Ukrainian forces have increased their grouping in the Svatove direction and intend to take Svatove this week.
  • A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to conduct offensive operations in the direction of the Kreminna-Svatove highway. Another Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are preparing to conduct offensive operations toward Chervonopopivka to access Kreminna from the north.

LUHANSK-DONETSK

Above: Ukrainian soldier prepares to load a shell for Wagner mercenaries near Bakhmut. (ABC News)

Map via ISW
  • Over the past 24 hours, units of the Defense Forces repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of Makiivka, Nevske and Bilohorivka settlements of Luhansk oblast and Verkhnyokamyanske, Spirne, Bakhmut, Mayorsk, Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka, Vodyane, Pavlivka and Prechystivka of Donetsk oblast.
  • Ukrainian soldiers posted footage from settlements around Bakhmut and reported that Ukrainian forces continued to repel endless Russian attacks on Bakhmut and that Ukrainian troops are evacuating civilians in nearby Klyshchiivka (about 9km southwest of Bakhmut).
  • Russian milbloggers claimed that intense fighting is ongoing near Opytne (about 3km southwest of Bakhmut) in the Kurdyumivka direction. A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger also reported that fierce battles continue in the outskirts of Soledar (13km northeast of Bakhmut) and Bakhmut as Wagner troops try to break through Ukrainian defenses.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations on the northern, northwestern, and southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City on November 1. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the Avdiivka direction (15km northwest of Donetsk City).
  • Ukrainian sources reported on November 1 that a Ukrainian strike destroyed the Akhtamar Hotel along the Mariupol-Donetsk City Road near Volnovakha. Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko claimed that the hotel housed Chechen troops under the command of Ramzan Kadyrov.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: Boy and his cat take an evacuation ferry across the Dnipro River. (New York Times

Map via ISW
  • Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian troops are continuing active defensive actions, conducting aerial reconnaissance, and forming defensive lines on the east bank (left) of the Dnipro River. Residents reported that Russian forces are digging trenches and settling in for the defense of the east bank, including along the Nova Kakhovka- Dnipryany- Korsunka line (on the east bank about 45km east of Kherson City), Hola Prystan (8km southwest of Kherson City) and as far south as Mykhailivka, which lies well into Russian-occupied territory about 45km south of Kherson City.
  • Ukrainian forces continued their interdiction campaign against Russian concentration areas, logistics nodes, and military assets in Kherson Oblast on November 1. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported on October 31 that Ukrainian rocket and artillery units conducted 180 fire missions against Russian manpower and equipment concentrations in Kherson Oblast and that Ukrainian aviation struck a Russian stronghold in Snihurivka, Mykolaiv Oblast.
  • Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Head Yaroslav Yanushevich stated that Ukrainian forces also hit Russian ammunition warehouses in Beryslav Raion. Social media users additionally reported explosions in Kozatske, near Nova Kakhovka, on November 1.
  • Russian forces have likely increased their sabotage efforts in unoccupied southern Ukraine to further impede Ukrainian participation in the grain deal following the Russian pullout from the deal. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported on November 1 that Russian saboteurs are active in southern Ukraine.
  • Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian authorities arrested an Odesa City law enforcement officer associated with Russian intelligence services who collected data on Ukrainian military equipment transport and planned to blow up a railway. Successful Russian interdiction of Ukrainian logistics lines in southern Ukraine could impede Ukraine’s ability to transport grain to neutral ports for international shipment.
  • Russian forces continue efforts to consolidate control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) amid deteriorating working conditions at the plant. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced on October 31 that a landmine near the ZNPP perimeter detonated on October 30, cutting power to reactor unit 4 and forcing it to rely on external power lines to power essential safety and security functions.
  • Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on November 1 that Russian occupation authorities established deadlines of November 1 and December 2 for ZNPP personnel to sign contracts with Rosatom and have limited Ukrainian personnel access to the ZNPP.
  • The GUR also reported that Chechen forces arrived at Enerhodar, likely to perform law enforcement duties, and that Russian forces installed equipment on the roof of reactor unit 5 to conduct aerial reconnaissance of the area.
  • Occupation Head of Kherson Oblast stated that Russian authorities in occupied Crimea, Krasnodar Krai, Rostov Oblast, and Voronezh Oblast issued housing vouchers and 100,000-ruble (roughly 1,620 USD) bonuses to “evacuees” from Kherson Oblast, indicating that Russian authorities do not intend to allow the original Ukrainian inhabitants to return to the evacuated zones of Kherson Oblast for a long time if at all.

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