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DAY 257

Victory Chronicles
-DAY 257

November 7,2022

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: MOSCOW BACKPEDALING ON FAILED NUCLEAR BLUFF

Above: Yahoo News

  • Key Kremlin officials began collectively deescalating their rhetoric regarding the use of nuclear weapons in early November. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) released a statement on “the prevention of nuclear war” on November 2, stating that Russia “is strictly and consistently guided by the postulate of the inadmissibility of a nuclear war in which there can be no winners, and which must never be unleashed.”
  • The Kremlin’s rhetorical shift indicates that senior Russian military commanders and elements of the Kremlin are likely to some extent aware of the massive costs for little operational gain Russia would incur for the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine or NATO.
  • Russian occupation officials continued to forcibly transfer Ukrainian children from occupied Ukraine to Russia under the guise of “vacation” schemes.
  • Former Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Security Minister and current DNR military commander Aleksandr Khodakovsky claimed on November 5 that Russian friendly fire may have caused up to 60% of total Russian losses since the end of Russian offensive operations in Mariupol in mid-May.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: The Guardian

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last 24 hours

  • Liquidated personnel, 76,460 (+530)
  • Tanks, 2,771 (+6)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 5,630 (+19)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,782/391 (+1/0)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 202 (0)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 277/260 (0)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 1,472 (+7)
  • Cruise missiles, 399 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 16 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,199 (+8)
  • Special equipment, 157 (+2)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Over 72 shells hit Vorozhba community in Sumy Oblast on Sunday. (LiveUAMap)

  • The russian occupying forces continue to grossly violate the laws and customs of warfare against the civilian population.  During the past day, the enemy launched 4 missile and 24 air strikes, carried out more than 55 MLRS attacks.
  • Areas of 30 settlements in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Kherson oblasts were hit by enemy attacks.
  • The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly.
  • The enemy shelled in other directions:
    • in the Siversky direction – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Hai of the Chernihiv oblast and Stukalivka, Popivka and Vorozhba of the Sumy oblast. In addition, the occupiers used attack UAVs;
    • in the Slobozhanskyi direction – from tanks and the entire range of artillery in the areas of Novoselivske, Myasozharivka, Vovchansk, Stelmakhivka, Berestove, Ohirtseve and Strilecha settlements;
    • in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions – from artillery of various types, in the areas of Serebryanka, Nevske, Makiivka, Bilohorivka, Ploshchanka, Spirne and Verkhnyokamianske settlements;
    • in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of Andriivka, Soledar, Yakovlivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Opytne, Mayorsk, Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka and Zelenopillya settlements;
    • in the Avdiivka direction – from tanks and artillery of various calibers, in the areas of Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, Vuhledar and Opytne settlements;
    • in the Novopavlivskyi and Zaporizhzhia directions – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Hulyaipole, Hulyaipilske, Olhivske, Dorozhnyanka, Novopil, Shcherbaky, Novodanilivka, Vremivka and Pavlivka;
    • In the Southern Buh region – from tanks and artillery of various types, in the areas of Blahodatne, Davidiv Brid, Dudchany, Myrne, Nova Kamianka and Pravdyne settlements. In addition, the enemy continued to conduct aerial reconnaissance, actively using UAVs. Made more than 20 flies.

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Ukraine’s many rivers in the east complicates fighting.  (Armed Forces of Ukraine)

Map via ISW
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Svatove and Kreminna.
  • Russian opposition sources reported that Ukrainian shelling near Makiivka, Luhansk Oblast may have killed up to 500 Russian mobilized personnel in one day.

LUHANSK-DONETSK

Above: russians destroy schools and hospitals to show the world what russian peace looks like. (CNBC)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar.[24] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces broke through Ukrainian defenses near Bakhmut, made marginal gains south of Avdiivka, and remained impaled near Pavliivka in western Donetsk Oblast.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: Ukrainian defender in a foxhole in Zaporizhzhya Oblast. (Reuters)

Map via ISW
  • In Kherson, the occupiers, disguised in civilian clothes, occupy the premises of civilians and strengthen positions inside for conducting street battles. At the same time, russian propagandist journalists are planning to shoot videos in the city on the topic of the alleged destruction of the civilian population by the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian personnel repaired two external power lines to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on November 5, resuming the supply of electricity to the ZNPP after shelling deenergized the facility on November 3.
  • Russian occupation officials continued to cite the threat of a Ukrainian strike on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station to justify the continued forced relocation of civilians in Kherson Oblast.

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