UKRAINIAN WORLD CONGRESS

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DAY 264

War Chronicles
-DAY 264

November 14,2022

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: UKRAINE’S GROUNDBREAKING USE OF HIMARS FORCED THE ENEMY OUT OF NORTHERN KHERSON

Above:  Kherson city is liberated. (AFP)

  • Ukraine has won an important victory in the campaign that liberated western Kherson Oblast, culminating in the withdrawal of Russian forces completed on November 11.
  • Ukraine’s success resulted in large part from the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ (UAF’s) innovative use of the US-provided HIMARS precision rocket system to disrupt Russian supply lines.
  • The UAF continued to strike the bridges as the Russians sought to repair them, targeting the repair equipment as well as the roadways until the Russians finally gave up.  The UAF attacked the barges and landing areas as well, but the ferry system was in any case insufficient to supply the 20,000-some Russian mechanized troops trying to hold their lodgment on the western bank of the river.
  • Putin likely elevated [newly-appointed war commander] Surovikin and let him withdraw from western Kherson on condition that he take the rest of Donetsk Oblast using Russian forces recouped from western Kherson as well as newly-arriving mobilized servicemen.
  • A cessation or prolonged slowing of combat operations over the next few months is therefore very unlikely. The Ukrainians will almost certainly continue their counter-offensive operations already underway.
  • Both sides are already fighting in very muddy conditions. They will not likely stop fighting when winter freezes the ground and makes it even more conducive to large-scale mechanized maneuver warfare. Combat is more likely to intensify than to slacken as temperatures drop.
  • Ukrainians and the West must bend every effort toward enabling the liberation of those lands as rapidly as possible before worrying about what lies beyond them. Momentum is an important factor in war. Ukraine has it now. Kyiv and its partners must make the most of it.
  • The Russian military grouping stationed in Belarus continues to generate social tensions among Belarusians.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Ukrainians forces find abandoned enemy equipment on the approach to Kherson city. (Yahoo!)

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last 24 hours

  • Liquidated personnel, 81,370 (+510)
  • Tanks, 2,848 (+8)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 5,748 (+6)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,839/393 (+2/0)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 206 (0)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 278/261 (0)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 1,509 (+2)
  • Cruise missiles, 399 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 16 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,316 (+21)
  • Special equipment, 160 (0)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Lyman, Donetsk. (Euronews)

  • During the current 24 hours, the russian occupiers launched one missile and 6 air strikes, carried out more than 14 MLRS attacks.
  • The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly. In the military commissariats of the Brest region, in the period from November 7 to 11, measures were taken to clarify the personal data of men of conscription age. There is still a threat of the enemy launching missile and air strikes, in particular with the use of attack UAVs from the territory and airspace of the republic of belarus.
  • The enemy shelled in such other directions:
    • in the Slobozhanskyi direction – from artillery of various types, in the areas of the settlements of Strilecha, Starytsa, Buhruvatka, Ohirtseve, Riznykove, Vilkhuvatka, Kolodyazne, Bolohivka and Fyholivka;
    • in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Kislivka, Kotlyarivka, Tabaivka, Krokhmalne, Berestovka, Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Makiivka, Terny and Zarichne;
    • in the Bakhmut direction – from the entire range of artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Andriivka, Zelenopillia, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka, Zalizne and New York;
    • in the Avdiivka direction – from artillery of various calibers, in the areas of Vesely, Kamianka, Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka;
    • in the Novopavlivka direction – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Paraskoviivka, Vuhledar, Bohoyavlenka, Pavlivka, Novoukrainka, Prechystivka, Velyka Novosilka, Vremivka, Temyrivka, Novopil, Olhivske and Poltavka;
    • in the Zaporizhzhia direction – from artillery of various types, in the areas of the settlements of Hulyaipole, Zaliznychne, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanilivka and Mali Shcherbaky.
  • On the Tavriysk direction, the areas of Vishchetarasivka, Mylove, Zolota Balka, Mykhailivka and Shevchenkivka were hit by artillery fire. The village of Dobra Nadiya, Dnipropetrovsk region, was directly damaged by fire.

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Ukrainian National Guard soldiers move an anti-aircraft gun after firing it at Russian positions in Kharkiv Oblast. (VOA)

Map via ISW
  • Ukrainian forces have continued to make limited gains in Luhansk Oblast and will likely be able to make more gains if they are reinforced by troops from western Kherson.
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.

LUHANSK-DONETSK

Above: Russian offensive efforts are expected to dramatically accelerate in Donetsk Oblast after the loss of Kherson.  (New York Times

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations in the directions of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar.
  • Russian offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast will intensify in the coming weeks as additional mobilized servicemen arrive along with forces withdrawn from western Kherson.
  • The Russians are not likely to make operationally significant gains despite their renewed efforts, although they could conceivably take Bakhmut over time at enormous cost. Russian mobilized servicemen have shown themselves to be inadequately trained, poorly equipped, and very reluctant to fight.
  • Russian forces operating in Donetsk Oblast include conventional units of the regular Russian Armed Forces, mobilized servicemen, Wagner Private Military Company troops, BARS (Russian volunteer reserve) formations, militia units from the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, soldiers from Ramzan Kadyrov’s Chechen units, and volunteer battalions.
  • This bizarre congeries of combat forces will have considerably less effective combat power than would a grouping of regular units of similar size. It is extremely unlikely that Surovikin will be able to forge it into a force able to conduct large-scale offensive mechanized maneuver warfare, particularly since he is not even taking (or being allowed to take) the time to build a coherent strike force before hurling it into the attack.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: “November 11, 2022 – Kherson is Ukraine”. (Le Monde)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces and occupation officials are forcibly mobilizing men in Russian-occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, and forcing them to construct trenches and defensive fortifications in the city.
  • Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces are withdrawing from the left bank of the Dnipro River and concentrating forces and equipment in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, and Mariupol, Donetsk
  • There is an increase in the group of occupation troops in the Melitopol region of the Zaporizhzhia region. Fortifications and defensive buildings are being built around the perimeter of the city. Civilians are prohibited from approaching the airfield area. Columns are arriving to the city from the side of Tokmak.
  • In the temporarily occupied by the enemy population centers of Kakhovka, Tavriysk and Nova Kakhovka of the Kherson region, a decrease in the number of enemy personnel is observed. There is a minimal number of occupiers in the cities, patrols move through the streets.


Kherson is saved by Ukrainian heroes. (AFP)

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