UKRAINIAN WORLD CONGRESS

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DAY 271

War Chronicles
-DAY 271

November 21,2022

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: RU PLANS TO PROLONG CIVILIAN HEATING DESTRUCTION WITH IRANIAN DRONES

Above:  The invader is using iranian drones to target civilian infrastructure. russia launches irainian drones in swarms so that chances are higher that at least one gets to its target. (Time)

  • Russian forces are reportedly beginning to reinforce their positions in occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts with personnel from Kherson Oblast and mobilized servicemen.
  • US intelligence officials stated on November 19 that Russian and Iranian officials finalized a deal in early November to manufacture Iranian drones on Russian territory.
  • The Washington Post reported that Russian forces have launched 400 Iranian kamikaze drones since first using them in the Ukrainian theater in August, and Ukrainian officials have previously stated that Ukrainian forces down 70% of drones before they can strike their targets.
  • The deepening relationship between Russia and Iran, specifically in the provision of long-range munitions such as kamikaze drones and precision missiles, may allow Russian forces to sustain their campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure for a longer period than their diminishing stockpile of munitions would otherwise allow.
  • This report also suggests that Russia can somehow circumvent Western sanctions to acquire the microchips needed to program the drones it plans on manufacturing. A Russian milblogger claimed that the deal allows Russian officials to claim they build Russian drones—thus providing an informational win—having previously stated that the domestic manufacturing of Iranian drones on Russian territory humiliates Russia.

Video: Russian prime-time TV  programming clearly illustrates how the kremlin grooms its population for hatred and brutality.   On the one hand, they cheer for destruction of the heating systems to help annihilate Ukrainians and, on the other, lament that Ukrainians are brain-washed zombies who crave russian liberation.  

Enemy mobilization

  • Russian military officials continued covert mobilization. The resources spent on covert mobilization coupled with Russia’s ongoing fall conscription wave further degrades the ability of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to prepare for future waves of mobilization.
  • Russian media sources continued active discussions of an impending second wave of mobilization. A prominent Russian Telegram channel refuted statements from Ukrainian sources that Russia will likely conduct general mobilization after the New Year’s holiday, arguing that Russia does not have the equipment, trainers, or bureaucratic structure required to provide for hypothetical newly mobilized soldiers.
  • Widespread reports of mobilized soldiers being required to purchase their own equipment, sleeping outside or in tents without heat while still on training grounds, receiving no or woefully inadequate training, and experiencing other poor conditions suggest the Russian MoD is unprepared to handle future rounds of partial mobilization or even provide for those currently mobilized.
  • Russian investigative outlet Mediazona reported on November 18 that the number of male prisoners in Russia has decreased by 23,000 since the start of the Wagner Group’s prison-based recruitment campaigns. 

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: New York Times

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last 24 hours

  • Liquidated personnel, 84,600 (+390)
  • Tanks 2,892, (+6)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 5,822 (+5)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,870/393 (+2/0)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 209 (0)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 278/261 (0)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 1,537 (0)
  • Cruise missiles, 480 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 16 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4378 (+7)
  • Special equipment 161, (0)

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above:  Ukrainian forces in eastern Kharkiv are pressing to take western Luhansk.  Ukraine liberated Synkivka village over the weekend.  (Visegrad 24)

Map via ISW
  • Russian and Ukrainian sources reported ongoing fighting along the Svatove-Kreminna line on November 20. Deteriorating weather conditions are impacting hostilities.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported an increase in Russian military personnel in Luhansk City and noted that Russian forces are housing servicemen in abandoned homes in Krasne and Simeikyne about 30km southeast of Luhansk City.
  • Luhansk Oblast Military Administration added that a part of redeploying Russian troops is arriving in Novoaidar, approximately 55km east of Severodonetsk.

LUHANSK-DONETSK

Above: Ukrainian soviet-era T-64BM tank near Bakhmut, the location of the most intense battles in the current conflict.  (OSINTtechical)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces are pounding Ukrainian positions with artillery fire and in the eastern region alone launched almost 400 strikes on Sunday, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a video address.
  • Russian forces will likely continue to use mobilized and redeployed servicemen to reignite offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and maintain defensive positions in Luhansk Oblast. Andryushenko stated that newly mobilized men are deploying to the presumably western Donetsk Oblast frontline via Mariupol.
  • Russian forces maintained their offensive operations around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and west of Donetsk City despite reports of high losses around Bakhmut.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that about 500 wounded Russian servicemen arrived in Horlivka hospitals from the Mayorsk direction, which suggests that Russian forces are experiencing high casualties on this segment of the frontline.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces stopped Russian advances on Vodyane (approximately 8km west of Avdiivka) and Novomykhailivka (about 30km southwest of Donetsk City).

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: “Train to Victory”.  The first train from Kyiv arrived in Kherson since early March.  (LB)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces continued to undertake defensive measures and conduct routine shelling east of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast on November 19. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that Russian forces continue to establish defensive positions east of the Dnipro River and are pulling Russian forces out of the range of Ukrainian artillery.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian force concentration area in Mykhailivka, 38km south of Kherson City on the R57 highway, killing 60 personnel and wounding 70 personnel.
  • Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian force concentration in the Kinburn Spit, killing seven personnel and destroying two armored vehicles.
  • Ukrainian Mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov stated that Russian authorities are forcing civilians to dig trenches and build defenses near Melitopol. Russian sources expressed continued concern that Ukrainian forces are concentrating along the Zaporizhia Oblast front line for a counteroffensive drive toward Melitopol.
  • Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is under Russian control, was rocked by shelling on Sunday, drawing condemnation from the U.N. nuclear watchdog which said such attacks risked a major disaster. More than a dozen blasts shook Europe’s biggest nuclear power plant on Saturday evening and Sunday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said.
  • One Russian milblogger claimed that the shelling came from Russian-controlled territory south of the plant, but most Russian sources accused Ukraine.
  • Advisor to Mariupol Mayor Petro Andryushenko also noted the arrival of redeployed personnel and military equipment to Mariupol, stating that Russian forces are placing 10,000 to 15,000 servicemen in the Mariupol Raion.

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