Victory Chronicles
-DAY 282

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS

Above:  Foreign ministers of Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden visited Kyiv this week. “Despite Russia’s bomb rains and barbaric brutality Ukraine will win!” (Edgars Rinkēvičs)

• Belarusian President Lukashenko continued to set informational conditions to resist Russian pressure to enter the war against Ukraine by claiming that NATO is preparing to attack Belarus. Belarusian Minister of Defense Viktor Khrenin stated that there is no direct preparation for war and that Belarus will only defend its territory. Lukashenko and Khrenin likely made the comments to bolster an ongoing information operation aimed at fixing Ukrainian forces on the border with Belarus in response to the threat of Belarus entering the war.
• The Kremlin’s financial strain continues to feed domestic unrest. A Russian source shared footage that shows a deputy from the Russian Communist Party, proposing to increase the payments to veterans at a government meeting in Komi Republic, to a hostile audience of his United Russia party This event exemplifies the growing rift between Russian nationalist parties under increasing economic strain.
• The Russian military continues to contend with low morale and high rates of desertion and refusals to fight among its forces. The Ukrainian General Staff Deputy Chief Oleksiy Hromov reported that Russian forces have had to reinforce multiple regiments in Kherson Oblast with more mobilized personnel due to the high number of deserters and mobilized soldiers who refuse to fight.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Destroyed Z cars in Kherson. (Newsweek)

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last 24 hours

• Liquidated personnel, 90,090 +(650)
• Tanks, 2,916 (+1)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 5,883 (+6)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,905/395 (+1/0
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 210 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 280/262 (+0/1)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,564 (+2)
• Cruise missiles, 531 (0)
• Warships/boats, 16(0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,464 (+23)
• Special equipment, 163 (0)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above:  More souvenirs from russia world in Bakhmut.  (Bloomberg)

• russian enemy continues armed aggression against our state, does not stop striking civilian infrastructure objects, violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, laws and customs of war. It concentrates its main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas.
• Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces repelled attacks by russian invaders in the areas of settlements: Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka and Bilogorivka in the Luhansk oblast and Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Bakhmut, Kurdyumivka, Krasnohorivka, Kamianka, Vodiane, Pervomaiske and Maryinka in the Donetsk
• Over the past day, the enemy launched 2 rocket attacks on civilian objects in the settlement of Komyshuvakha, Zaporizhzhia oblast against the positions of our troops and populated areas, including the city of Kherson.
• There is still a threat of the occupiers carrying out missile strikes on the objects of the energy system and critical infrastructure throughout the territory of Ukraine.
• In the Siverskyi direction, the invaders carried out artillery shelling of the settlements of Seredyna Buda, Bachivsk, Bilopylla, Budky and Krasnopilla of the Sumy oblast.
• In the Slobozhansk direction, the enemy continues to maintain its troops in the border areas of the Belgorod region. The areas of Veterynarne, Kozacha Lopan, Vysoka Yaruga, Strilecha, Krasne, Starytsa, Ohirtseve, Budarky, Chuhunivka, Dvorichna and Zapadne settlements of Kharkiv oblast were shelled by russian artillery.
• Enemy fire was recorded in the areas of Kupyansk, Kyslivka, Kotlyarivka, Tabaivka, Krokhmalne, Berestove, Druzhelyubivka in the Kharkiv oblast and Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Makiivka and Bilohorivka in the Luhansk
• In the Bakhmut direction, the enemy will continue to focus its main efforts on conducting offensive operations. Objects in the areas of Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Vyimka, Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar, Opytne, Klishchiivka, Pivnivhe, Zalizne and New York areas were shelled by tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery.
• In the Avdiivka direction, the enemy is trying to improve the tactical position. Objects in the areas of settlements of Avdiivka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka of the Donetsk oblast were hit by fire from tanks and artillery of various types.
• The enemy is defending in the Novopavlivsk Shelling from the entire range of artillery was recorded in the areas of Vuhledar, Bohoyavlenka, Prechystivka, and Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk oblast.
• The enemy is conducting defensive operations in the Zaporizhzhia It carried out artillery shelling in the areas of the settlements of Zahirne, Orihiv, Novoandriyivka, Mali Shcherbaky and Plavni in the Zaporizhia oblast and Nikopol in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast.

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above:  RFERL

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued efforts to defend against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations and regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line on December 1. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian ground assaults near Novoselivske (14km northwest of Svatove) and Stelmakhivka (15km northwest of Svatove).
• Ukrainian General Staff Deputy Chief Oleksiy Hromov reported that Ukrainian forces anticipate that Russian forces will attempt to restart offensive operations in the Lyman direction to regain the initiative. Hromov added that the Russians are building defensive lines in the Svatove and Lyman directions to prevent Ukrainian advances.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna on December 1.
• Russian security forces have reported an increased number of deserters in Luhansk Oblast – many of whom are now attempting to cross the border back into Russia and are being detained by security services in the dozens.

LUHANSK-DONETSK

Above:  Ukrainian service members fire a shell from an M777 Howitzer at a front line in the Donetsk region (Telegraph)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces likely continued to make marginal advances in the Bakhmut area amidst ongoing offensive operations on December 1. Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut; within 22km northeast of Bakhmut near Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, and Bilohorivka; and within 14km southwest of Bakhmut near Opytne, Mayorsk, and Kurdyumivka.
• CNN published a video report on December 1 in which Ukrainian military commanders in the Bakhmut area tell a correspondent that their forces are outnumbered and facing serious supply issues. The Ukrainian military commanders also told the CNN correspondent that Russian forces are committing significant forces to assaults in the Bakhmut area and are suffering heavy casualties.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces completely control Andriivka (within 10km south of Bakhmut).
• Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on December 1. Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults within 37km southwest of Avdiivka near Krasnohorivka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Marinka, Nevelske, and Novomykhailivka, and within 6km northeast of Avdiivka near Kamianka.
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that half of the residential buildings in the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts are without heat, partly due to a lack of personnel and water supplies. The Ukrainian Resistance Center added that the mass mobilization of men in occupied areas of Donbas ignited personnel shortages.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: Waiting for resupply in Kherson Oblast. (Newsweek)

Map via ISW

• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces decreased the number of personnel and equipment in Oleshky and redistributed personnel to positions along the highway between Oleshky and Hola Prystan (further away from the Dnipro River).
• Russian military movements in Zaporizhia Oblast may suggest that Russian forces cannot defend critical areas amidst increasing Ukrainian strikes on Russian force concentrations and logistics. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 1 that Russian forces withdrew or are currently withdrawing personnel from Polohy, Myhailivka, and Inzhenerne in Zaporizhia Oblas
• The potential withdrawal from Polohy is particularly notable as the settlement lies at a critical road junction, and Russian forces would likely have a harder time defending Tokmak from potential Ukrainian operations without control of that junction.
• Russian forces are concentrating reserves in northern Crimea to reinforce troops on the east bank in Kherson Oblast and in the direction of Orikhiv in Zaporizhia Oblast. Dzhankoy and surrounding settlements have become the largest Russian military base in Crimea due to the amount of Russian military personnel and equipment transfers and deployments.
• Occupation officials in Zaporizhia Oblast plan to pull Ukrainian hryvnias from circulation on January 1, 2023. All enterprises in Zaporizhia Oblast have until the end of 2022 to exchange their hryvnias for rubles.