Victory Chronicles
-DAY 292

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: BELARUS DEGRADING ITS MILITARY IN FAVOR OF RUSSIA

Above: Big cities like Mykolaiv and Odesa without power after enemy strikes on civilian infrastructure over the weekend, but Ukrainians are undaunted. (New York Times)

• Lukashenko’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine and Russian pressure on Belarus to join the fighting are likely causing friction within the Belarusian military. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 7 that soldiers of the Belarusian border service and the Belarusian Armed Forces are increasingly dissatisfied with the activities of the Belarusian military-political leadership due to the threat of Belarus entering the war in Ukraine.
• The Kremlin’s efforts to pressure Belarus to support the Russian offensive campaign in Ukraine are a part of a long-term effort to cement further control over Belarus.
• Belarus is extraordinarily unlikely to invade Ukraine in the foreseeable future. A Belarusian intervention in Ukraine, moreover, would not be able to do more than draw Ukrainian ground forces away from other parts of the theater temporarily given the extremely limited effective combat power at Minsk’s disposal.
• Belarusian support for Russia’s war in Ukraine is likely degrading the Belarusian military’s material capacity to conduct conventional military operations of its own. The Belarusian open-source Hajun Project reported on November 14 that the Belarusian military transferred 122 T-72A tanks to Russian forces. Belarus lacks capabilities to produce its own armored fighting vehicles making the transfer of this equipment to Russian forces both a current and a likely long-term constraint on Belarusian material capacities to commit mechanized forces to the fighting in Ukraine.
• Belarus is also likely drawing down its inventory of artillery munitions through munitions transfers to the Russian military. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on December 3 that Belarus has been transferring 122mm and 152mm artillery ammunition to Russian Armed Forces throughout October and November.
• Belarusian officials are likely trying to conceal the amount of military equipment they are sending to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine. The Hajun Project reported on November 5 that the Belarusian State Security Committee, Ministry of Internal Affairs, and the Belarusian Special Forces have instituted enhanced protection and surveillance of rail infrastructure and have banned trains carrying military equipment from passing through Belarusian cities.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Ukrainian strikes on an enemy barracks near Melitopol that may have housed Kadyrovites. (Belsat in English)

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last 24 hours

• Liquidated personnel, 94,760 (+620)
• Tanks, 2,966 (+24)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 5,928 (+8)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,929/397 (+1/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 211 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 281/264 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,617 (+4)
• Cruise missiles, 592 (0)
• Warships/boats, 16 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,544 (+4)
• Special equipment, 169 (+2)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: UA Varta

• At night, the enemy attacked the energy infrastructure facilities in the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions with allegedly Iranian attack UAV “Shakhed-136”. 10 out of 15 UAVs were intercepted.
• The threat of the enemy launching missile strikes on the objects of the energy system and critical infrastructure throughout the territory of Ukraine remains in the future.
• In the Slobozhanskyi direction, the enemy fired mortars and barrel artillery at the areas of Zelene, Starytsa, Ohirtseve, Varvarivka, Chuhunivka, Dvorichna and Ridkodub settlements of the Kharkiv oblast.
• In the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, the areas of Kislivka, Tabaivka, Pishchane, Krokhmalne, Berestove, Kharkiv oblast were hit by fire; Terny in Donetsk oblast and Ploshchanka, Dibrova, Makiivka, Nevske and Stelmakhivka in Luhansk oblast.
• In the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions, the enemy continues to make attempts to break through the defense of our troops. It fired at the positions of the Defense Forces from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery in the areas of more than twenty settlements. Among them are Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, Vesele, Bilohorivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Opytne, Bila Hora, Kurdyumivka, Zalizne and Avdiivka of the Donetsk
• In the direction of Novopavlivsk, the enemy is defending and shelling our positions with tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery near the settlements of Velika Novosilka, Neskuchne, Prechystivka and Vuhledar in Donetsk
• In the direction of Zaporizhzhia, the enemy shelled more than 15 settlements. In particular, Zelene Pole and Vremivka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole, Dorozhnyanka, Zaliznychne and Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia.
• In the Kherson direction, the enemy carried out artillery shelling of a number of settlements in the Kherson region, which are near the contact line. The city of Kherson and its surroundings suffered yet another fire damage.

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above:  Rebuilding in Izyum. (UA Varta)

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that fighting continues along the Svatove-Kreminna line and near Lyman amidst poor weather conditions.
• A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces transferred over 200 pieces of equipment from the Kherson direction to the Kupyansk direction, and geolocated footage shows Russian T-90 tanks in Luhansk Oblast headed west.
• In order to counteract numerous cases of desertion in units of the russian occupation forces in the territories of Luhansk region, SMS messages are being sent to subscribers of the Lugacom mobile network with a warning about criminal liability for leaving the places of service and permanent deployment points of military units.

LUHANSK-DONETSK-ZAPORIZHZHIA

Above: Ukrainian defenders repelled attacks on 13 towns and villages in Donbas over the weekend.  (Slovo i Dilo)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces made marginal territorial gains around Bakhmut as Russian and Ukrainian sources reported continued fighting in the area.
• A Ukrainian Armed Forces Eastern Group spokesperson stated that Russian forces changed tactics from using battalion tactical groups (BTGs) to smaller assault groups for offensive actions.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: Occupation puppets reported explosions and huge flames in a large enemy barracks in Sovietske, Crimea, Ukraine, as caused by “careless handling of fire”. (New Voice of Ukraine)

Map via ISW

• Russian and Ukrainian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces struck Skadovsk, Hola Prystan, Oleshky, and Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, all along major Russian logistics lines.
• At the checkpoints around the city of Berdyansk, counter-subversive measures have been strengthened, the number of servicemen of the russian occupation forces has increased, and checks of civilians have begun to be carried out more thoroughly. People without local registration are not allowed into the city.
• Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian military base in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast. One source claimed that the strike killed up to 200 Russian military personnel.
• A Ukrainian partisan group claimed responsibility for setting fire to a Russian military barracks in Sovietske, Crimea.
• Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces face shortages of blood for wounded military personnel and are running donor drives in occupied Crimea.