Victory Chronicles
-DAY 308

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: KREMLIN FAKE NEGOCIATION RHETORIC GOES EXTREME WITH GLOBAL PARANOIA CONSPIRACIES

Above: A soviet-era statue of russo-soviet writer Maxim Gorky finally removed in Dnipro City.  The enemy looses not just lives and equipment, but also the hearts and minds of the Ukrainian people. (The Lviv Journal)

• The Kremlin will continue to pursue a military solution to the war until the Ukrainian government capitulates to Russia’s demands. 
• The enemy foreign minister laid out outlandish demands and assertions to state media including:
  • Russian military will settle all issues if Ukraine and the West refuse the Kremlin’s well-known demands;
  • Demands include the demilitarization and denazification of Ukrainian-controlled territory and the recognition of Russia’s seizure of occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts;
  • US-controlled Ukraine and the United States are responsible for prolonging the war as they could “put an end to senseless resistance;
  • United States and its NATO allies want to destroy the Russian Federation;
  • US military officials are planning to kill Putin;
  • United States and NATO members are engaging in dangerous nuclear signaling.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: A maintenance battalion in Kharkiv repairs captured enemy tanks and APCs.  (Washington Post)

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last 48 hours

• Liquidated personnel, 103,770 (+550)
• Tanks, 3,017 (+1)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,037 (+13)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,999/418 (+1/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 212 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 283/267 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,707 (0)
• Cruise missiles, 653 (0)
• Warships/boats, 16 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,660 (+8)
• Special equipment, 179 (0)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: The enemy has destroyed the majority of housing in Bakhmut. (Sky News)

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and eighth day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• Over the past 24 hours, the enemy launched a missile attack and fired 33 rockets from multiple rocket launchers, in particular, at civilian objects in the city of Kherson.
• In the future, there remains the danger of the enemy launching air and missile strikes on the country’s critical infrastructure.
• On the Siverskyi and Slobozhanskyi directions, the areas of the settlements of Mefedivka, Tovstodubov and Vovkivka in the Sumy region, as well as Hlyboke, Staritsa, Ohirtseve and Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region, were shelled.
• In the Kupyansk direction, the enemy shelled the areas of the settlements of Novomlynsk, Tavilzhanka, Dvorichne, Kupyansk, Tabaivka, Krokhmalne, Berestov and Pershotravneve in the Kharkiv region and Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka and Kolomiychikha in the Luhansk
• In the Lyman direction, Ploshanka and Dibrova in Luhansk region, as well as Yampolivka, Torske and Hryhorivka in Donetsk region, were affected by fire.
• In the Bakhmut direction, the areas of the settlements of Spirne, Berestov, Bilogorivka, Soledar, Pidgorodne, Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar, Opytne, Stupochki, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Bila Gora, Oleksandro-Shultine, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka, Mayorsk and New York of the Donetsk region were shelled.
• In the Avdiyiv direction, the enemy fired at Vodyanyi, Pervomaisky, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka districts in Donetsk
• Vugledar, Novoukrayinka, Prechistivka, Zolota Niva, Vremivka and Velyka Novosilka of the Donetsk region were damaged by fire in the Novopavlivskyi direction.
• In the Zaporizhzhia direction, shelling from tanks and rocket artillery was recorded in the areas of Temyrivka, Olhivske, Poltavka, Malynivka, Dorozhnianka, Biloghirya, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanilivka, Novoandriivka, Shcherbaki, Kamianske and Plavni settlements of the Zaporizhzhia region.
• In the Kherson direction, the enemy continues mortar and artillery shelling of populated areas along the right bank of the Dnipro River. In particular, Chervonogrihorivka of Dnipropetrovsk region was affected; Antonivka – Khersonska and the city of Kherson. There are victims among the civilian population.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Ukrainian servicemen repurpose a soviet Volga car into an artillery surveillance tower near Kharkiv.  The Telegraph

Map via ISW

• Russian forces reportedly repelled Ukrainian attacks on the Svatove-Kreminna line on December 27.
• Ukrainian forces likely captured Dvorichna, Novomlynsk, and Tavilzhanka in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast and Kolomiychikha in Luhansk Oblast given that both Russian and Ukrainian sources reported Russian shelling against these settlements on December 27.

LUHANSK-DONETSK-ZAPORIZHZHIA

Above: Ukrainian soldiers with the 43rd Heavy Artillery Brigade sit atop a 2S7 Pion self-propelled cannon. (Voice of America)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces in Bakhmut may be nearing culmination as Russian forces in Kherson did in August 2022.
• Russian forces in the Bakhmut area are no longer operating as company and battalion tactical groups and are instead operating in smaller groups of ten to fifteen servicemembers (squad-size organizations). 
• Russian forces similarly degenerated from company and battalion tactical groups to individual squad-sized groups when Russian units in Kherson Oblast became markedly degraded in August 2022, indicating  that the Russian offensive had culminated as Russian ground forces were degraded so badly that they could no longer operate elements at echelons high enough to make meaningful gains.
• Russian rate of advances in the Bakhmut area will likely decrease if Russian forces continue advancing at all unless significant new reinforcements and supplies of artillery rounds arrive soon.
• Russian forces may have  increased the pace of offensive operations to capture Soledar which would likely further exacerbate the Wagner Group’s slowing rate of advance in the Bakhmut area.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on December 27. Russian forces have notably decreased the number of artillery strikes in the direction of Avdiivka due to supply issues with artillery munitions.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA-CRIMEA

Above: “Crimean Tatars with Ukrainians and other nationals, shoulder-to-shoulder stand and defend the territorial integrity of Ukraine”. From the first days of the full-scale invasion, the Crimean Tatars have joined the defense of Ukraine. (Ukrainian Defense Intelligence)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces are maintaining their fortification efforts in southern Ukraine and are continuing to shell civilian infrastructure in Kherson, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian rear areas. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian base with mobilized men in Tytove (approximately 75km west of Mariupol.  A Ukrainian strike on December 25 killed and wounded up to 100 Russian servicemen, 15 of whom were personnel from the Russian Federal Security Service near Novobilozerivka (approximately 57km northwest of Melitopol).
• Russian occupation authorities continue to intensify deportation efforts in occupied territorie Kherson Oblast Occupation Administration stated on December 27 that the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations has “evacuated” 150,000 residents from Kherson Oblast in 2022. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian occupation officials are evacuating residents from Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast with the intention of creating a humanitarian crisis and distorting Ukrainian population demographics.