UKRAINIAN WORLD CONGRESS

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DAY 313

Victory Chronicles
-DAY 313

January 2,2023

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: UKRAINE IS MASTERING DEFENSE AGAINST DRONE AND MISSILE BARRAGES

Above: Early morning in Kyiv, January 1, 2023, a fireball from a missile strike glows on the clouds above the skyline. For the third time in a week, the enemy launched air strikes against civilian infrastructure – to scare Ukrainians into giving up. (VOA News)

  • Russian forces launched rounds of missile strikes targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure on December 31 [and January 1], but these rounds were of reduced intensity compared to previous rounds.
  • On Dec 31, Russian forces launched over 20 air-launched cruise missiles (of which Ukrainian air defenses reportedly shot down 12) and used 10 Shahed-136 drones and an Orlan-10 surveillance drone (all of which Ukrainian forces reportedly downed). On Jan 1, Ukraine shot down 39 Iranian-made Shahed drones, as well as a cruise missile.
  • Russian forces in Ukraine are experiencing significant issues with artillery ammunition.  The lengthy frontline in Ukraine requires the Russian military to expend a significant number of shells and rockets daily.
  • Russian forces had previously used 60,000 artillery shells per day and now only use 19,000 to 20,000 shells. Russian forces have also removed all remaining artillery ammunition from Belarus to support their operations in Ukraine.
  • The Russian MoD stated that 120,000 people were conscripted into military service in the Russian Armed Forces during autumn conscription and that it is now officially over and that they paid particular attention to staffing the scientific and industrial industries, sending 450 conscripted men to scientific and industrial companies.
  • The Ukrainian Resistance Center posted a map on December 31 of the reported locations of Ukrainian partisan attacks on Russian occupation administrations throughout Ukraine over the course of 2022, listing Chornobaivka, Kherson City, Melitopol, Enerhodar, Mykhailivka, Melitopol, Berdyansk, Mariupol, Luhansk City, Kreminna, Starobilsk, and Velykyi Burluk as locations where successful partisan activities occurred.
  • Putin is uncertain of his ability to shape the Russian information space and remains focused on justifying the war and its costs to his people. In his New Year address, he  rhetorically claimed that victory in the war against Ukraine was essential to Russia’s continued existence as an independent state.
  • Russian Defense Minister falsely claimed that Russia is defending civilians suffering genocide and violence for “the right to speak Russian, characterizing the war as a struggle against neo-Nazism and necessary to preserve Russia’s “glorious history and great achievements”.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Video: In flawless russian language, Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov gave a New Year’s address to the russian (and Belarusian) people, warning that, the Kremlin for its own personal gains, will soon close the borders and begin a major mobilization campaign. 

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Before: A technical college in temporarily-occupied Makiivka, Donetsk, was used as a large enemy troop barracks.  To build morale, their commanders organized a New Years Party this weekend. (Ukrainska Pravda)

After: The same college in Makiivka was obliterated at around midnight on January 1, 2023.  Russian sources blame a Ukrainian HIMARS strike.  Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications wrote on Telegram that it was the result of “careless handling of heating devices…smoking in undesignated areas” and that there were up to 700 casualties. 

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022

  • Liquidated personnel, 107,440 (+720)
  • Tanks, 3,031 (0)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 6,093 (+9)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,027/423 (+6/0)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 213 (0)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 283/269 (0)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 1,836 (+44)
  • Cruise missiles, 723 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 16 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,725 (+5)
  • Special equipment 181 (0)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Enemy targeted private houses in Kyiv with its multi-million dollar missiles on Sunday. (New York Times)

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and thirteenth day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

  • The threat of enemy air and missile strikes on critical infrastructure remains throughout Ukraine.
  • Over the past day, the enemy carried out 51 airstrikes, including 44 Shahed-136 UAVs. All of them were shot down by units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. The enemy also fired 55 rounds of anti-aircraft fire, including at the children’s hospital in the city of Kherson.
  • Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces have repelled attacks by occupiers in the areas of the settlements of Stelmakhivka and Bilogorivka in Luhansk region and Rozdolivka, Bilogorivka, Soledar, Krasna Gora, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Ozeryanivka, Opytne and Krasnogorivka in Donetsk
  • On the Siverskyi and Slobozhanskyi directions, the areas of Leonivka settlements of Chernihiv region were subjected to mortar and artillery shelling; Vilna Sloboda, Esman, Katerynivka and Shalygine – Sumy and Ohirtseve, Vovchansk and Novomlynsk in Kharkiv
  • In the Kupyansk direction, the enemy shelled the areas of more than 15 settlements. Among them are Andriivka, Kupyansk, Kucherivka, Liman Pershiy, Vilshana, Orlyanske, Kislivka and Kotlyarivka in the Kharkiv region, and Novoselivka and Myasozharivka in the Luhansk
  • On the Lymanskyi direction, enemy fire was recorded near Novoyehorivka, Ploshanka, Nevsky, Chervonopivka of the Luhansk region, and Terni and Dibrova of the Donetsk
  • More than 15 settlements were shelled in the Bakhmut In particular, these are Berestov, Bilogorivka, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Stupochki, Bila Gora, Kostyantynivka and Diliivka in Donetsk region. The enemy also carried out an airstrike near Bilogorivka.
  • Vodyane, Georgiyivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka of the Donetsk region came under the influence of fire in the Avdiiv
  • Neskuchne, Vremivka, Velyka Novosilka and Vugledar in the Donetsk region were damaged by fire in the Novopavliv
  • In the Zaporizhzhia direction, shelling from tanks, mortars and barrel artillery was recorded in the areas of Novosilka and Novopil settlements of Donetsk region and Olhivske, Zaliznychne, Orikhov, Novoandriivka, Shcherbaki, Stepove and Musiivka in Zaporizhzhia.
  • In the Kherson direction, the civilian infrastructure of Tyaginka, Novotyaginka, Ponyativka, Dar’ivka, Sadovoy, Stanislav and Kherson suffered from enemy shelling.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Year-end holiday celebrations in a Kharkiv metro station, guarded by National Police.  (Kharkiv Times)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line on December 31. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Stelmakhivka (16km northwest of Svatove), Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna), Chervonopopivka (6km north of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna).

LUHANSK-DONETSK-ZAPORIZHZHIA

Above: Ukraine’s defenders stationed in Donetsk Oblast watch the president’s address to the nation on New Year’s Eve. (VOA News)

Map via ISW
  • The enemy continues to focus its efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Bakhmut He is trying to improve the tactical position of the units of his troops in the Kupyan, Lyman and Avdiivka directions.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut; within 22km northeast of Bakhmut near Soledar, Bilohorivka, Bakhmutske, and Pidhorodne; and within 31km southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka and New York.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on December 31. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Avdiivka and within 27km southwest of Avdiivka near Krasnohorivka, Kamianka, and Marinka.
  • Russian occupation officials are unable to provide basic necessities to those living in occupied territories including water and heat. The leader of the illegal Donetsk People’s Republic pled with Putin for assistance in solving occupied Donetsk Oblast’s severe water shortages and received permission to construct a new waterline from the Don River to Donetsk City.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA-CRIMEA

Above: “Enerhodar is a Ukrainian city”. More than 200 unsigned leaflets were distributed around temporarily-occupied Enerhodar, Zaporizhzhya for New Year’s. (Ukrainian Resistance Center)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces began to construct fortifications in the vicinity of Rozivka, Zaporizhia Oblast in front of the entrance from Donetsk
  • Ukrainian strikes wounded 115 Russian soldiers and destroyed an anti-aircraft missile complex, an ammunition depot, and five pieces of military equipment in the vicinity of Polohy and Velyka Bilozerka, Zaporizhia Oblast on December 29. Ukrainian strikes killed around 200 Russian soldiers in the vicinity of Fedorivka, Kherson Oblast on December 29.
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency announced that the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant lost connection to its last functioning back-up power line during the evening of December 29.
  • Russian officials have reportedly imported Rosgvardia and Russian security forces into occupied territories due to the failure of previous attempts to “tame“ residents. There are reportedly 500 policemen imported from Russia in Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast alone.

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