UKRAINIAN WORLD CONGRESS

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DAY 314

Victory Chronicles
-DAY 314

January 3,2023

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS

Above: January 2023 on the southern Turkish coast. The number of russian draft dodgers in Anatolia, Turkey, has caused local real estate prices to triple. (New York Times)

  • Ukraine’s air force reported on January 1 that Ukrainian air defense forces shot down all 45 Russian Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones that Russia fired at Ukraine on New Year’s Eve, using the US-provided NASAMS air defense system to shoot down these drones.
  • Ukrainian precision strike on a Russian manpower and military equipment concentration point in Makiivka occurred when Russian servicemen violated operational security by using personal cell phones, allowing Ukrainian forces to conduct a precision strike at the base. The strike destroyed up to 10 pieces of equipment and possibly hundreds of casualties.
  • Putin continues to extend financial promises to Russian soldiers and compound financial burdens for the war effort. A decree signed on December 30 extended a one-time payment of 195,000 rubles (about $2,747) to mobilized men and soldiers who signed a contract.
  • Official Ukrainian sources continue to warn of a coming Russian wave of mobilization for residents of Russia and occupied territories. Although Russian mobilization has never slowed, Russia will strengthen mobilization measures and close Russian borders to isolate the country.
  • Russian occupation authorities officially banned the use of the Ukrainian hryvnia on January 1 for occupied territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Map: Locations of successful Ukrainian partisan attacks on Russian occupation administrations in 2022.  Locations include Chornobaivka, Kherson City, Melitopol, Enerhodar, Mykhailivka, Melitopol, Berdyansk, Mariupol, Luhansk City, Kreminna, Starobilsk, and Velykyi Burluk.  (Ukrainian Resistance Center)

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Iranian-made Shahed exploding drone shot down near Kupyansk. (The Washington Post)

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022.

  • Liquidated personnel, 108,190 (+750)
  • Tanks, 3,036 (+5)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 6,100 (+7)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,033/424 (+6/1)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 214 (+1)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 283/270 (+0/1)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 1,839 (+3)
  • Cruise missiles, 723 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 16 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,735 (+10)
  • Special equipment, 181 (0)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

The enemy typically launches a swarm of Iranian drones followed by cruise missiles for their mass civilian infrastructure attacks. (New York Times)

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and fourteenth day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

  • In order to exert pressure on the leadership and the population of our country, the enemy carries out air and missile strikes, as well as conducts artillery fire on critical infrastructure and civilian residences on the territory of Ukraine, thereby violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of warfare.
  • During the past day, the enemy launched 6 missile strikes and 30 air strikes on civilian infrastructure. In addition, all 27 Shahed-136 UAVs, which were used by the enemy, were shot down by the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
  • Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of settlements: Stelmakhivka, Makiivka, Ploshanka, Belogorivka of the Luhansk region; Rozdolivka, Soledar, Krasna Gora, Pidgorodne, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Avdiivka, Maryinka of the Donetsk
  • On the Siverskyi and Slobozhanskyi directions, areas of the settlements of Lypivka and Yelina of the Chernihiv region were subjected to artillery and mortar attacks; Volfine, Pavlivka, Pokrovka, Mayske of Sumy region; as well as Strelecha, Staritsa, Ohirtseve, Vovchansk, Okhrimivka, Kamianka of the Kharkiv
  • In the Kupyansk direction, the enemy fired from the entire range of artillery in the areas of the settlements of Novomlynsk, Tavilzhanka, Dvorichna, Liman Pershiy, Vilshana, Kupyansk, Kucherivka, Orlyanka, Kurylivka, Kislivka, Kotlyarivka, Tabaivka, and Pershotravneve of the Kharkiv region; Novoselivske, Andriivka and Stelmakhivka, Luhansk
  • In the Lymansky direction, the enemy fired tanks, mortars, and barrel artillery in the areas of the settlements of Makiivka, Ploshanka, Nevske, Chervopopivka, Dibrova of the Luhansk region, as well as Terna of the Donetsk
  • In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy fired from tanks, mortars and rocket artillery in the areas of the settlements of Spirne, Berestovka, Bilogorivka, Vesele, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmut, Kostyantynivka, Stupochki, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Bila Gora, Kurdyumivka, Diliivka, Mayorsk, New York, Donetsk
  • In the Avdiivsk direction, the enemy fired tanks and artillery of various types in the areas of Vesele, Berdychi, Avdiivka, Georgiivka, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, and Vodiane settlements of the Donetsk
  • In the direction of Novopavlivsk, the enemy fired from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery in the areas of Vugledar, Zolota Niva, Velyka Novosilka, and Vremivka settlements of the Donetsk
  • In the Zaporozhye direction, the enemy fired tanks and the entire range of artillery in the areas of settlements of Novopil, Donetsk region; Olhivske, Zeleny Gai, Gulyaipole, Dorozhnyanka, Zaliznychne, Gulyaipilske, Charivne, Novodanilivka, Orihiv, Novoandriivka, Mali Shcherbaki, Stepove, Kamianske and Plavni of the Zaporizhzhia region; Musiivka, Chervonogrihorivka, Dnipropetrovsk
  • In the Kherson direction, the enemy does not stop shelling populated areas along the right bank of the Dnipro River. In particular, the civil infrastructure of Kherson, Zelenivka, Inzhenerne, Molodizhne, Antonivka and Beryslav settlements of the Kherson region were damaged by the artillery shelling, and there are victims among the civilian population.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Invincible Kharkiv endures shelling everyday. (Ukrainska Pravda)

Map via ISW
  • Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies reported that 23 to 28 Russian degraded battalion tactical groups are fighting on a frontline covering about 154 km from Kharkiv to Donetsk oblasts with a concentration of one BTG per 5.5 kms. Wagner and breakaway Luhansk and Donetsk elements augment these enemy forces.
  • Russian forces continued conducting unsuccessful attempts to improve their tactical positions northwest of Svatove on January 1 and 2, after reportedly conducting a tactical pause around the New Year’s holiday.
  • Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian counterattacks around Kreminna on January 1 and 2. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks on Bilohorivka (approximately 13km southeast of Kreminna), and the Luhansk Oblast Administration reported that Ukrainian forces eliminated a Russian armored group near Ploshchanka (approximately 13km northwest of Kreminna).
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces launched a series of HIMARS attacks on Russian rear positions in occupied Luhansk Oblast. The Luhansk People’s Republic claimed that Ukrainian forces struck Pervomaisk, Chmyrivka (on the eastern outskirts of Starobilsk), Svatove, and Rubizhne in occupied Luhansk Oblast with HIMARS.

LUHANSK-DONETSK-ZAPORIZHZHIA

Above: Lyman, Donetsk, liberated in October, has one fire truck left to defend against enemy shelling. (New York Times)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks near Bakhmut and Avdiivka at a low rate of advance. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Bakhmut; north of Bakhmut near Krasna Hora; northeast of Bakhmut near Soledar, Bilohorivka, Rozdolivka, and Bakhmutske; south of Bakhmut near Ozaryanivka; and southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka.
  • Russian forces have decreased their rate of shelling from 20–80,000 rounds per day to a maximum of 20,000 per day and are searching for Soviet 122mm and 152mm caliber ammunition both domestically and internationally. Russian forces prioritize shelling the Bakhmut and Avdiivka frontline over other areas of the front.
  • Two additional but likely degraded and demoralized Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) arrived near Popasna, Luhansk Oblast, and are expected to operate in the Popasna-Soledar or Popasna-Bakhmut directions.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA-CRIMEA

Above: The Ukrainian Army has retaken Potyomkin Island on the Dnipro SW of Kherson.  (Google Earth)

Map via ISW
  • Defense Forces of Ukraine confirmed fire damage to enemy personnel and military equipment in the Chulakivka settlement of the Kherson region. The losses of the enemy amounted to about 500 soldiers wounded and dead.
  • Ukrainian forces continue to repel Russian attempts to attack Ukrainian positions in Kherson Oblast on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro River and force Russian troops to regroup.
  • Russian forces maintain a significant number of forces in the south despite shortages along the eastern axis and are bringing mobilized reserve forces to the frontlines in Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian forces are shelling settlements on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro River across from Kherson City to destabilize the humanitarian situation in Kherson Oblast.
  • Ukrainian forces continue to strike concentrations of Russian personnel and equipment along the southern axis. Ukrainian forces struck Tarasivka, Basan, Polohy, Berdyansk, and Tokmak, killed more than 175 Russian soldiers, and destroyed a Russian ammunition depot and 12 pieces of weapons and military equipment

A Ukrainian defender shows Potomkin Island under UAF control

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