DAY 316

Victory Chronicles
-DAY 316

January 5,2023


Above: Lyman, Donetsk, resident hugs his dog next to his shelled house. (VOA News)

  • Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate Chief Kyrylo Budanov stated that Ukrainian forces are planning a major push starting in March 2023 that will liberate territory “from Crimea to Donbas” and deal “the final defeats to the Russian Federation.”
  • Russian forces are increasingly reliant on Iranian-made drones in their campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure but have likely significantly depleted their current stock of these systems. Russian forces have used about 660 Iranian-made Shahed  drones in Ukraine since their first use in September of 2022.
  • Ukrainian air defenses have shot down 540 Russian drones. Even at a 100 percent shoot-down rate, Shaheds are able to damage Ukrainian cities as their warheads do not necessarily always explode when intercepted by Ukrainian anti-aircraft missiles and can detonate upon falling to the ground.
  • Shahed drones better evade detection on radar because of how low they fly to the ground, particularly along the Dnipro River in attacks targeted at Kyiv.
  • The Russian MoD has modified the format of its daily situational reports to flood the information space with insignificant claimed successes and distract from its significant military failures, focusing on small  strikes without location, making it difficult to geographically verify the claimed strikes.
  • Enemy use of mobilized servicemen with minimal training and degraded morale in the role of officers is contributing to poor performance and high losses. In the wake of the Makiivka strike on January 4, some of the officers of the targeted regiment were mobilized servicemen, indicating that some Russian units are relying on newly mobilized and poorly trained recruits for leadership roles.
  • The owner of private Russian precision grade rifle ammunition manufacturer claimed that the Kremlin has not been submitting orders for rifles from his company despite the “enormous and constantly growing need for high-precision and long-range rifles”, noting that private sponsors and non-government crowdfunding organizations place 99.9% of all orders in support of the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine.
  • Russian occupation authorities are seizing the property of small business owners and forcing them to re-register their property under Russian legislation.

Video: General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles


Above: New Voice of Ukraine

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022.

  • Liquidated personnel, 109,720 (+810
  • Tanks, 3,041 +3
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 6,108 +2
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,051/426 +12/2
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 215
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 284/271 +1/1
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 1,844 +2
  • Cruise missiles, 723
  • Warships/boats, 16
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,759 +14
  • Special equipment, 182 +1


Above:  Public ice arena destroyed by enemy strike near Kramatorsk, Donetsk. (National Review)

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and sixteenth day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

  • During the past day, the Russian occupiers launched 3 rockets, 13 airstrikes and 68 attacks from rocket salvo systems, in particular, on the civil infrastructure of the cities of Bakhmut, Kostyantynivka and Kurakhove of the Donetsk region; Nikopol in the Dnipropetrovsk region and Kherson. There are victims, seriously wounded and dead among the civilian population.
  • The danger of enemy air and missile strikes remains on the entire territory of Ukraine.
  • The enemy continues to focus its efforts on conducting an offensive in the Bakhmut There was no success in the Avdiyiv and Kupyan areas after the offensive. On the Novopavlivsky, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson directions, it continues to conduct active defense, shelling the positions of our troops and civilian objects along the contact line.
  • Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of the settlements of Stelmakhivka and Ploschanka of the Luhansk region and Belogorivka, Soledar, Krasna Gora, Viimka, Pidgorodne, Bakhmut, Kurdyumivka, Mayorsk, Severnye, Vodyane, Krasnohorivka, Vesele, Maryinka, and Pobyeda in Donetsk
  • On the Siverskyi and Slobozhanskyi directions, the districts of Kamianska Sloboda, Chernihiv region, were hit by tank, mortar and artillery shelling; Kustyne, Maiske and Pavlivka in Sumy Oblast and Krasne, Staritsa, Ohirtseve, Gatishche, Vovchansk, Ustinivka and Figolivka in Kharkiv
  • Areas of 20 settlements were affected by fire in the Kupyansk and Lymansk Among them are Ivanivka, Kupyansk, Dvorichna, Vilshana, Kislivka, Kotlyarivka and Krokhmalne in Kharkiv Oblast and Makiivka, Ploshanka and Dibrova in Luhansk Oblast.
  • Areas of more than 40 settlements were shelled in the Bakhmut and Avdiiv In particular, these are Verkhnokamianske, Bilogorivka, Bakhmut, Bila Gora, Diliivka, Avdiivka, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka of the Donetsk region.
  • In the Novopavlivsk direction, enemy fire was recorded near the settlements of Zolota Niva, Vugledar, Mykilski Dachi and Prechistivka in Donetsk
  • In the Zaporizhzhya and Kherson directions, the areas of more than 45 settlements were affected by the fire. The civil infrastructure of Poltavka, Gulyaipilske, Mala Tokmachka and Stepove settlements of the Zaporizhia region and Kherson, Novosilka, Tyaginka and Sadove were damaged by tank, mortar and artillery shelling.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!


Above:  Soldiers from the Carpathian Sich international battalion conduct maneuvers near the front line near Kreminna, Luhansk. (National Review)

Map via ISW
  • Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi reported that fierce fighting is ongoing along the Savtove-Kreminna line and in the direction of Lysychansk (15km southeast of Kreminna)..
  • Ukrainian strikes are degrading Russian military logistics in Luhansk Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai stated on January 4 that Russian forces must now deliver ammunition to the Svatove area directly from Luhansk City because Ukrainian forces defeated Russian attempts to build warehouses near Svatove.
  • The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on January 4 that Russian forces have blocked the entrance to and exit from Tytarivka, Luhansk Oblast, and arrested dozens of local civilians on allegations that they collaborated with Ukrainian forces.
  • Russian occupation authorities have waived age requirements and psychological evaluations for residents in occupied Luhansk Oblast to serve in internal affairs enforcement in an effort to legalize forced mobilization in occupied territories.


Above: Ukrainian defender loads ammo for a self-propelled howitzer in Donetsk.  (Reuters)

Map via ISW
  • In the Donetsk region, the Ukrainian Air Force destroyed a Russian Su-25 attack aircraft, a Ka-52 attack helicopter and an Orlan-10 operational-tactical UAV.
  • Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut on January 4. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Bakhmut, north of Bakhmut near Krasna Hora, northeast of Bakhmut near Soledar, and south of Bakhmut near Mayorsk.
  • Russian forces continued ground attacks along the western outskirts of Donetsk City on January 4. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Krasnohorivka (on the western outskirts of Donetsk City) and Marinka (on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City) and southwest of Donetsk City near Novomykhailivka and Pobieda.
  • The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on January 4 that Russian occupation officials forcibly took approximately 30 residents from the  Bakhmut area to filtration camps in Rostov Oblast, Russia, under the guise of protecting civilians from hostilities.


Above: The enemy is wreaking maximum terror on Kherson as punishment for spurning russia world. Civilian fatalities occurred in the shelling today. (Online.UA)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces continued to rebuild force capability and conduct defensive operations in Kherson Oblast on January 4.
  • Russian forces continue to rebuild force capacity in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts—and that Russian forces are active on the islands near Kherson City. Ukrainian forces are prioritizing taking the east bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast before considering taking control over these nearby islands.
  • Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian concentration areas in Zaporizhia Oblast on January 4. Ukrainian forces struck Russian military equipment and personnel concentration areas in Tokmak, Melitopol, Berdyansk, Polohy, and Vasylivka; hitting a command post, wounding over 260 servicemembers, and destroying up to 10 pieces of military equipment.
  • Russian forces are moving units to northern Crimea in an effort to preserve the land corridor to Crimea. Holding the land corridors is a prime goal of the enemy in order to seize the coast of the Sea of Azov and cut off Ukrainian access to the Black Sea.  However, Western military equipment has made the corridor unsafe for Russian forces.
  • Residents in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast must obtain passes from local commandants to leave populated areas. Occupation officials are imposing a curfew in and around Tokmak, restricting residents from leaving their villages until January 8.
  • The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on January 4 that the Russian Federal Security Service and occupation law enforcement are more actively checking local residents’ phones and conducting illegal raids in the occupied Kakhovka, Kherson, due to recent Ukrainian partisan activities and strikes on Russian military facilities.

Ukrainian Navy: Always on Duty

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