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DAY 323

Victory Chronicles
-DAY 323

January 12,2023

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY: NATO TANK TABOO UNDER FIRE AFTER POLISH PLEDGE TO SEND LEOPARDS

Above:  Leopard 2 tanks of the Polish Army participate in the NATO Noble Jump military exercise in 2015 in Zagan, Poland.  Polish President Andrzej Duda said during the Lublin Triangle coalition meeting in Lviv Wednesday, that Warsaw will participate in the transfer of Leopard 2 tanks with a coalition of European allies. Europe holds an arsenal of over 2,000 of the German-manufactured tanks with operators including Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and Turkey. The catch on a potential transfer to Ukraine is that Germany must approve all transfers. (Photo: Defense News)

Above: The Polish-Lithuanian Empire was revived Wednesday in Lviv, but this time with Ukraine as a sovereign member. The Polish, Lithuanian and Ukrainian presidents met in the context of the Lublin Triangle – a coalition formed in 2020 to strengthen Ukraine’s EU/NATO integration, among other things. The coalition issued a Joint statement centered on helping Ukraine beat russia and holding russia accountable.  (President.Gov.UA)

Video: Lviv takes to the streets last night to thank the Polish President Duda for promising tanks for Ukraine. 

Above: russia-Georgia border last September.  Full-scale mobilization may be imminent in russia world.  Russian Federal Security Service ordered the border closed to Russian citizens fit for military service from leaving Russia starting January 9 to support a second wave of mobilization which will prioritize “quantity not quality.” (Photo: Lasha Chikovani)

  • The Kremlin is shuffling defense brass to help the situation on the military battle in Ukraine and propaganda battle against warlords Prigozhin and Kadyrov among other rising adversaries. The Russian MoD announced on Jan 11 that Chief of Staff General Gerasimov will take over as theater commander, replacing the “butcher of Syria” Surovikin who was appointed only three months ago. Gerasimov will likely preside over a disorganized command structure plagued by endemic failures that he set into motion in his initial role before the invasion of Ukraine.
  • Russian forces will struggle to sustain offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in 2023. Russia’s daily rate of artillery fire has decreased in some areas by 75%, a historic low since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion due to the defense industry’s inability to fill the shortages. Russian forces previously depleted their reserves of 122mm and 152mm artillery shells and other reserves over the summer of 2022 under an assumption that excessive artillery fire would lead to faster results.
  • Ukrainian strikes against Russian ammunition depots and logistics have also inhibited Russia’s ability to unload munitions close to the frontlines, reducing the intensity of Russia’s artillery fire.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: General Staff

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

  • Liquidated personnel, 113,390 (+430)
  • Tanks, 3,094 (0)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 6,159 (0)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,082/437 (+4/0)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 218 (+1)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 285/276 (+0/1)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 1,865 (+3)
  • Cruise missiles, 723 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 17 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,826 (0)
  • Special equipment, 184 (0)

GENERAL STAFF CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Municipal workers are among those that stay behind to try to maintain basic services, here in Kramatorsk, Donetsk, repairing a street hit with enemy fire. (New York Times)

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and twenty-third day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

  • Over the past 24 hours, the occupiers have launched 4 missile strikes on civilian objects in the towns of Lyman and Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region and 23 airstrikes. In addition, 69 attacks were carried out from rocket salvo systems in other locations.
  • There is a danger of air and missile attacks on the entire territory of Ukraine.
  • Over the past 24 hours, units of the Defense Forces repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of the settlements of Stelmakhivka and Kreminna in the Luhansk region and Rozdolivka, Sil, Krasna Gora, Paraskoviivka, Pidgorodne, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Mayorsk, Pervomaiske and Krasnohorivka in the Donetsk
  • On the Siverskyi and Slobozhanskyi directions, the areas of Novovasylivka and Vovkivka settlements of Sumy region, as well as Guryiv Kozachok, Strilecha, Staritsa, Ohirtseve, Vovchansk, Vilcha and Novomlynsk of Kharkiv region were subjected to mortar and artillery shelling.
  • In the Kupyansk direction, the enemy shelled the districts of Dvorichna, Zapadny, Kupyansk, Kislivka, Tabaivka, Krokhmalny, Berestovo, Vyshnevo, Ivanivka, and Pershotravnevo of the Kharkiv region and Stelmakhivka – Luhansk.
  • On the Lymanskyi direction, Terny in Kharkiv Oblast, as well as Makiivka, Ploshanka, Nevske, Chervopopivka, Kreminna, Kuzmyne and Dibrova in Luhansk Oblast were hit by fire.
  • In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy fired from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery in the areas of the settlements of Spirne, Vyimka, Berestovka, Bilogorivka, Rozdolivka, Soledar, Krasna Gora, Pidgorodne, Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar, Ivanovske, Klishchiivka, Bila Gora, Kurdyumivka, Diliivka and Druzhba of the Donetsk
  • Krasnohorivka, Avdiivka, Vodiane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Georgiivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk region were shelled in the Avdiiv region.
  • In the direction of Novopavlivsk, Vugledar and Velika Novosilka of the Donetsk region were affected by fire.
  • In the Zaporozhye direction, areas of Vilne Pole settlements in Donetsk region were damaged by enemy fire; Malynivka, Zeleny Gai, Gulyaipole, Zaliznychne, Chervone, Charivne, Biloghirya, Kamianske and Plavni in the Zaporizhia region and Manganets in the Dnipropetrovsk
  • In the Kherson direction, Dudchany, Stepanivka, Antonivka, and Kherson were shelled by multiple rocket launchers and barrel artillery.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Landscape covered in snow on broad plains of western Luhansk. (Svatove City)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions near Svatove on January 11. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Hrianykivka, Kharkiv Oblast (53km northwest of Svatove) and Stelmakhivka, Luhansk Oblast (16km west of Svatove).
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counteroffensive operations around Kreminna on January 11. Russian forces have begun to deploy more experienced military personne over mobilized personnel, to fight in the Kreminna area due to fears that Russian forces may lose the settlement.
  • Ukrainian forces continued to strike the Russian rear in Luhansk Oblast on January 11. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces struck Russian rear areas near Chornukhyne (65km northeast of Donetsk City) and Zolote (43km southeast of Kreminna) in Luhansk Oblast with HIMARS rockets.

DONETSK-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: Ukrainian troops next to a German howitzer near Soledar, Donetsk, on Wednesday. (Japan Times)

Map via ISW
  • Fighting in Soledar remains some of the most intense since the beginning of russia’s war. The Institute for the Study of War assesses that Russian forces have not yet captured Soledar. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Wednesday that fighting was raging in the eastern front-line town under assault by Wagner Group and its prison convict front line. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Wednesday that Soledar has “gone back and forth a number of times.”
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut and in the Avdiivka-Donetsk city area on January 11. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut, Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut), and Mayorsk (22km southwest of Bakhmut).
  • Russian occupation authorities have resorted to mobilizing residents of Donetsk Oblast with disabilities, addiction problems, and criminal records to meet Kremlin-imposed quotas.

Above: Soledar in August 2022 and on Jan 10, 2023. (Maxar Technologies)

Video: Yolki-palki, battle scene near Bakhmut. 

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA-CRIMEA

Above: Ukrainian hearts and minds at the liberation of Kherson in October. On Wednesday, the tiny kremlin dictator expressed concern to his cabinet of ministers that civilians in occupied territories need to be taught the full value of joining the Russian Federation and how their lives will change for the better. (Photo: Japan Times)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces are withdrawing key assets and restructuring logistics networks in southern Ukraine due to Ukrainian strikes. Russian forces withdrew Shahed-136 drone launch points from occupied Kherson Oblast to Crimea and Krasnodar Krai and suggested Ukrainian forces have struck Russian drone training centers in southern Ukraine.
  • Russian forces previously intended to establish Melitopol as a logistics hub to move forces and equipment to the front lines, but instead now use the city as a center for destroyed equipment and personnel casualties. Russian forces are using local social infrastructure as makeshift morgues and hospitals across Zaporizhia Oblast and transported over 200 dead from Tokmak to Russia, and full rail cars of destroyed equipment from Melitopol to Crimea.
  • Ukrainian forces have the Dnipro River delta islands and the Kinburn Spit under fire control.
  • The recruitment of mercenaries for the newly created private military companies has been announced in the temporarily occupied Crimea. In order to at least somehow attract interest, potential candidates are promised a high monetary compensation and promised that they will not be involved in hostilities “on the territory of Ukraine”.
  • Russia is conducting mobilization on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast by identifying and recording the names of people of draft age. A Crimean unit that will soon deploy to the frontlines on January 11 was told that it is not going to fight Ukrainian forces, but NATO.
  • Russian occupation authorities are continuing to target Ukrainian children to consolidate societal control in occupied territories. The ultra-nationalist Russian youth group “Movement of the First” is “working with” Ukrainian children in Zaporizhia Oblast in the spheres of patriotism and preservation of the Russian historical memory.

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