Victory Chronicles
-DAY 330

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY: KREMLIN MAJOR SPEECH CONTAINED NOTHING NEW OR TRUE

Above: Germany has begun delivering Leopard 2 tanks to the Czech Republic as part of an agreement for Prague to give Ukraine its soviet T-72 tanks.  A number of countries including Finland, Lithuania, Poland and Britain have joined Polands call for German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine right now at an inflection point in the war.  

The catch is German permission and no surprise that Chancellor Scholtz is foot dragging. Mr Scholtz wants the USA to send in Abrams tanks first, which the US has said is not an appropriate solution at this time. During his speech at Davos Wednesday, Mr Scholz sighted the need to reach consensus with other NATO allies, leaving the door ajar to further discussions among defense ministers at the next Ramstein format meeting on Friday. (Euractiv)

• Putin used a Jan 18 speech to reiterate standard Kremlin rhetoric that falsely maintains that Russia launched the invasion of Ukraine to protect residents in the Donbas from neo-Nazis who seized control of the Ukrainian government in 2014. He did not use the the event to make announcements concerning the war in Ukraine, such as a new mobilization wave or a formal declaration of war.
• According to the UK Ministry of Defence, Russia is likely considering deploying a small number of its new T-14 Armata main battle tanks in Ukraine. Any T-14 deployment is likely to be a high-risk decision for Russia. Eleven years in development, the programme has been dogged with delays, reduction in planned fleet size, and reports of manufacturing problems. If Russia deploys T-14, it will likely primarily be for propaganda purposes. Production is probably only in the low tens, while commanders are unlikely to trust the vehicle in combat.
• Russian military recruitment centers are increasing recruitment efforts among older men and migrants from former Soviet republics. Russian military recruiters in North Ossetia are mobilizing people who struggle with drug addiction. Russian lawmakers submitted a bill to the Duma on January 16 to defer mobilization for farmers, entrepreneurs, and other small business owners.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: General Staff

General Staff on Facebook

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 118,530 (+760)
• Tanks, 3,136 (+6)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,235 (+10)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,122/442 (+14/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 220 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 287/277 (+0/1)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,882 (+6)
• Cruise missiles, 749 (0)
• Warships/boats, 17 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,896 (+7)
• Special equipment, 190 (0)

GENERAL STAFF CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above:  Reuters

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and thirtieth day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• Last day, units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of the settlements of Bilogorivka in the Luhansk region and Terny, Verkhnyokamianske, Soledar, Sil, Krasna Gora, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Kurdyumivka, Vodyane, Maryinka, Pobyeda and Paraskoviivka in the Donetsk region region.
• At the same time, the enemy carried out 25 airstrikes and launched more than 85 attacks from rocket salvo systems.
• The threat of air and missile strikes by the Russian Federation on civilian objects remains high throughout Ukraine.
• the enemy carried out mortar and artillery shelling in the areas of settlements of Buchka, Chernihiv region; Popovka – Sumy region; Budarky, Zemlianka, Gatishche, Zelene, Vovchansk, Ternova, Krasne, Kamianka, Chugunivka, Novomlynsk and Dvorichna of Kharkiv
• In the Kupyansk direction, the enemy shelled the districts of Kurylivka, Petropavlivka, Kislivka, Ivanivka, Krokhmalny, Synkivka, Berestovo, and Tabaivka in the Kharkiv region, as well as Stelmakhivka in the Luhansk
• In the Lymansky direction, the enemy fired at the positions of the Defense Forces near Druzhelyubivka in the Kharkiv region and Novoyehorivka, Nevsky, Chervonpopivka, and Dibrova in the Luhansk
• Areas of 22 settlements were hit by enemy artillery fire in the Bakhmut Among them are Verkhnokamianske, Bilogorivka, Vesele, Mayorsk, Krasna Gora, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka and Druzhba.
• On the Avdiivskyi direction, Avdiivka, Vodiane, Nevelske, Pervomaiske, Georgiivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk region came under enemy fire.
• In the direction of Novopavlivsk, the enemy again shelled Velika Novosilka, Zolota Niva and Ugledar in the Donetsk
• In the Zaporizhia region, 24 settlements were hit by artillery fire, in particular, Vremivka and Novopil in Donetsk region and Poltavka, Malynivka, Gulyaipole, Shcherbaki, Stepove, Kamianske and Plavni in the Zaporizhia
• In the Kherson direction, the occupiers do not stop terrorizing the civilian population. In particular, the areas of more than 20 settlements were shelled by rocket launchers and barrel artillery. Among them are Antonivka, Berehove, Vesele, Kachkarivka, Yantarne and Kherson. Civilians suffered.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: “For russian occupiers, everywhere awaits…death and oblivion”. (General Staff)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions near Kreminna on January 18. Geolocated footage published on January 18 indicates that Russian forces have made marginal advances south of Ploshchanka (17km northwest of Kreminna).
• Russian forces are transferring equipment to the other side of the Krasna River, which flows through Kreminna, in preparation for defensive operations and are continuing to move reserves to the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Geolocated footage published on January 17 shows Russian forces moving reserves and military equipment near Severodonetsk (15km southeast of Kreminna).

DONETSK-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above:  Tank operators near Bakhmut are operating 40-year-old soviet T-72s.  They get the basic defense job done, but more modern equipment is needed to go on the counteroffensive. (BBC)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Soledar on January 18. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Soledar by the end of January 16 and that they continue to defend against Russian forces on the outskirts of the settlement. Geolocated footage posted on January 18 indicates that Russian forces have likely advanced further west of Soledar in Dvorichchia (2km west of Soledar).
• Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault near Sil (3km northwest of Soledar).
• Russian MoD continues to downplay the role of the Wagner Group in claimed tactical advances in the Soledar area, using the phrase “volunteers of assault detachments” to describe the Wagner Group. It is likely using odd language to both shield itself from criticism that it is not acknowledging the Wagner Group while also downplaying the Wagner Group’s role.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on January 18. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut itself and Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on January 18. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults within 32km southwest of Avdiivka near Vodyane, Nevelske, Marinka, and Pobieda.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA-CRIMEA

Above: Ukrainian tanks roaming near the Dnipro River in Kherson territory. (Ukrainska Pravda)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces are transporting large convoys of military personnel, equipment, and defensive fortifications along critical logistics lines throughout Zaporizhia Oblast, possibly for a large defensive or offensive effort. Russian forces train mobilized personnel on the Arabat Spit in Crimea and then transport them to unspecified areas east, which could include Zaporizhia Oblast.