Victory Chronicles
-DAY 341

Above:  Poland launched a large-scale repair operation aimed at returning damaged Ukrainian artillery and armored vehicles to the battlefield. Mechanics work around the clock in three shifts. (MIL.IN.UA)

Above: Bloomberg published an opinion piece in which the author outlines how, “Russia spent almost 50 years building its energy market in Europe. President Vladimir Putin destroyed it in under 50 weeks. Finding a replacement will be almost impossible.”

Above: The Wall Street Journal published a screenshot from video showing a possible Israeli strike on an Iranian defense facility as “the U.S. and Israel look for new ways to contain Tehran’s nuclear and military ambitions.”

• Russia may have forcibly deported over 150,000 Ukrainian children. The Russian government recently allocated  70 million rubles ($989,800) to build new children’s camps in the Artek area, presumably to take children from other temporarily-occupied areas of Ukraine. New buildings will house over 400 children and will be completed by May 25.
• Russian occupation authorities have raised the retirement age for women from 55 to 60, created blanket pension amounts regardless of the length of service or previous salary and established a monthly living wage for residents of temporarily-occupied territories of 11,000 rubles ($158) per month.

ISW review of war progress and lessons learned:

• On Sunday, the Institute for Study of War focused on the supply of Western military aid to Ukraine with the main conclusion: The West missed the opportunity to shorten the war by empowering Ukraine to take advantage of its momentum / enemy failures that came apparent as early as summer 2022 by hesitating to supply materiel essential to supporting a Ukrainian counteroffensive. 
• Delays in the provision to Ukraine of Western long-range fire systems, advanced air defense systems and tanks have limited Ukraine’s ability to take advantage of opportunities for larger counter-offensive operations presented by flaws and failures in Russian military operations.
• The Russians have taken advantage of these delays and failures to benefit from the windows of vulnerability their own defeats and incompetence produced by mobilizing manpower and equipment and starting to rationalize their own forces.
• The slow pace of delivery of Western aid has powerfully shaped the pattern of this conflict.  During early stages, the West provided training, low power weapons such as the Javelin as well as supplies of soviet-era weapons and munitions which helped Ukraine resist the initial Russian invasion. Months later, the slow delivery of more advanced Western systems such as HIMARS (in June) facilitated the Ukrainian counter-offensives that liberated most of Kharkiv Oblast and then western Kherson Oblast.
• Since the liberation of Kherson, Ukraine has been unable to initiate a new major counter-offensive, giving the enemy valuable time to learn from mistakes and gather forces.  Both the enemy Bakhmut offensive and the missile-drone campaign put pressure on Ukraine that distracted from efforts to prepare for further counter-offensives—the Bakhmut offensive by drawing Ukrainian reinforcements to the defense of the city and the infrastructure attacks by diverting Ukrainian command attention from the battlefield.
• The West has consistently slow-rolled the delivery of vital weapons such as tanks and long-range artillery, most likely missing the window of opportunity when Ukraine had the momentum this summer.  The tanks promised for delivery now will take weeks or months for deployment due to the long lead time for training and delivery.
• Ukraine can liberate critical terrain with the current and promised levels of Western support, however, the West must learn to approve critical weapons in advance in order to give ample time for training and staging, not when conditions have built to a critical stage.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: Smoldering enemy equipment near Vuhledar. (Dialog)

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 126,650 (+490)
• Tanks, 3,201 (+4)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,369 (+3)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,196/453 (+1/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 221 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 293/284 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,947 (0)
• Cruise missiles, 796 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,041 (+4)
• Special equipment 199 (0)

Above: Ukrainian emergency responders fight fire in residential buildings following enemy shelling in Kherson over the weekend that resulted in multiple casualties. (The Guardian)

Above: This morning, the aggressor bombed an apartment building in Kharkiv, killing an elderly woman who apparently threatened their paranoid world. (Ukrinform)

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and forty-first day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• During the past day, the enemy launched 3 missile strikes, one of which was against Kharkiv. He carried out 44 attacks from rocket salvo systems, in particular on populated areas. There are wounded and dead among the civilian population.
• The threat of Russian air and missile strikes throughout the territory of Ukraine remains high.
• Defense Forces repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of the settlements of Bilogorivka, Luhansk region, and Yampolivka, Rozdolivka, Vasyukivka, Paraskoviivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, and Ozaryanivka, Donetsk
• With mortars and artillery, the enemy shelled the areas of Hrinivka and Krasny Khutir settlements of Chernihiv region; Volfine, Pisarivka and Zapsilya in the Sumy region and Odnorobivka, Chervona Zorya, Veterinarne, Strelecha, Glyboke, Zelene, Neskuchne, Ternova, Staritsa, Verkhnya Pisarivka, Ohirtseve, Vovchansk, Budarky and Novomlynsk of the Kharkiv
• In the Kupyansk direction, the areas of Dvorichna, Vilshana, Sinkivka, Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Krokhmalne, Berestov, Zeleny Gai, Vyshneve in Kharkiv region and Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka and Andriivka in Luhansk region were shelled.
• On the Lymanskyi direction, Makiivka, Nevske, Chervopopivka, Kreminna and Dibrova in the Luhansk region and Terna and Yampolivka in the Donetsk region were damaged by fire.
• In the Bakhmut direction, Spirne, Berestov, Bilogorivka, Rozdolivka, Bakhmut, Diliivka, Druzhba and New York of the Donetsk region were affected by fire.
• In the Avdiivsk direction Severne, Vodyane, Pervomaiske Krasnohorivka, Georgiivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka came under enemy artillery fire.
• Bogoyavlenka, Vugledar, Neskuchne and Velika Novosilka of the Donetsk region were fired upon in the Novopavlivskyi
• In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the areas of more than 15 settlements were affected by enemy artillery fire, in particular, Vremivka and Novopil of the Donetsk region; Poltavka, Malynivka, Chervone, Gulyaipole, Charivne, Novodanilivka, Orihiv, Novoandriivka of the Zaporizhzhia region and Nikopol – Dnipropetrovsk
• In the Kherson direction, the Russian occupiers shelled the suburbs and the city of Kherson. There are casualties among civilians.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Above: Ukrainian armed forces report slow advances in heavy fighting on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna axis, called “an important logistical artery” in the northeast region.  (Antikor)

• Russian forces reportedly continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line on January 28. Geolocated footage published on January 28 indicates that Russian forces have made marginal advances near Hryanykivka, Kharkiv Oblast (53km northwest of Svatove) and likely hold positions near Novovodyane, Luhansk Oblast (24km northwest of Kreminna).
• Ukrainian forces are likely increasing strikes on Russian positions in deep rear areas of Luhansk Oblast to disrupt Russian logistics and ground lines of communication.

Above: A primitive and brutal aggressor brings its world to Vuhledar, Donetsk.   (MIL.IN.UA)

Above: Vuhledar is a coal-mining town located in the Donets basin – the name means “coal giver” – that features a mountain-sized soviet-era coal slag heap on its outskirts. (MDR)

• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on January 28. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut itself, within 18km north of east of Bakhmut near Rozdolivka and Krasna Hora, 6km west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske, and within 20km south of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka and Druzhba.
• Geolocated footage published on January 26 indicates that Russian forces have likely advanced to the northwestern outskirts of Sil (14km north of Bakhmut).
• Conventional Russian forces are likely replacing exhausted Wagner Group forces to maintain the offensive in Bakhmut.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Donetsk City-Avdiivka area on January 28. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Vodyane (7km southwest of Avdiivka), Marinka (27km southwest of Avdiivka), and Pobieda (32km southwest of Avdiivka).
• Russian forces may be attempting to disperse the Ukrainian grouping of forces to enable a recapture of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, with an aim to use Lyman as a launching point for a offensive to secure Donbas.
• Degraded enemy infantry elements that are currently attacking A Ukrainian military official reported that the situation in the Vuhledar area is stable and that Russian forces conducted failed attempts to outflank Ukrainian forces in the area and take control over the surrounding roads.
• Russian forces continued a localized offensive in western Donetsk Oblast on January 28. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Prechystivka (43km southwest of Donetsk City) and Vuhledar (32km southwest of Donetsk City).
• Russian authorities will fire local government employees who do not have Russian passports by March 1. Workers must also renounce their Ukrainian citizenship even though Russian law allows for dual citizenship.  The enemy wants to change nationality statistics to support propaganda efforts.

Above: Recent street art in Kherson: “russia here – NEVER!” (Ukraine World)

Video:  Russian-speaking Kherson residents talk about the relentless revenge shelling of their city.

#Kherson today: shelling around the clock.

"Every day, every hour, Russian forces shell us."

"A clinic, a maternity ward, a school, damaged."

"They are liberating us from life."

📹 @ZarinaZabrisky pic.twitter.com/D8U78zFnu5

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) January 25, 2023

• Russian forces continued to conduct routine fire against Kherson City and other settlements in the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River. Russian forces used incendiary munitions to fire on Beryslav.
• Russian sources did not report on any Russian ground attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast for the third consecutive day on January 29. Ukrainian forces conducted a HIMARS strike against a bridge in Svitlodolynske (20km northeast of Melitopol).