Victory Chronicles
-DAY 344

Above:  The graphic shows the flow of Dutch-manufactured sanctioned goods sales since the start of sanctions.  Overall, a 78% decrease in sales to russia corresponds to large increases to Turkey, Armenia, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. (NOS)

Dutch investigative news site NOS released a report on how millions of Dutch-manufactured chips are imported into the Russian military sector through Chinese intermediaries including some entities on US sanctions lists. The British RUSI think tank stated that Dutch chips are found in almost all Russian-manufactured military drones. This latest report follows up a December publication outlining how Turkey and former soviet republics are re-exporting Dutch sanctioned goods to russia. 

“Due to the sanctions against Russia, exports from the Netherlands to that country have largely come to a standstill. But trade in sanctioned products with countries neighboring Russia is flourishing.”

• Ukrainian officials are continuing to warn about Russian plans to launch a decisive offensive operation in February and/or March. AFU leaders stated that the poor state of Russian military equipment requires Russia to mass manpower to outnumber Ukrainian defenders, but that Russia does not have sufficient forces to conduct an attack along the entire 1,500km frontline, therefore, will concentrate its efforts on seizing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
• Russian officials may place a moratorium on the public procurement law to simplify spending procedures amid an increasingly costly war effort. Under pressure from the Kremlin to fix procurement backlogs, officials believe that doing away with legal constraints and oversight will speed up procurement, but will also allow already widespread Russian corruption to flourish.
• Wagner convict recruitment has stalled. Statistics show that the number of Russian prisoners decreased by 6,000 between November 2022 and January 2023 as compared to a decrease of 23,000 prisoners between September and October of 2022, when the Wagner Group was intensifying its prison recruitment campaign. This may be an indicator that the Russian ministry of defense intends to sideline Wagner in future operations and, thus, that the Wagner Group no longer needs large numbers of convict volunteers for a high pace of attritional human wave attacks.
• Russian regional authorities likely ran out of resources to provision their local  “volunteer” battalions, leading to their overall decline as viable Russian formations in Ukraine. Currently, these regional volunteer battalions aren’t recognized in Russian law as part of the state military.
• Even amid tightening budget restraints on the military, Putin demanded an increase in the pace of restoration of cities and towns that were destroyed by Russian forces in occupied territories.
• The Belarusian MoD stated that Belarusian servicemembers trained in Russia on the use of the Iskander missile system and are currently conducting practical training on the systems at Belarusian training grounds.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: The barrel says, “wiseman”. (Censor)

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 129,030 (+610)
• Tanks, 3,211 (+2)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,382 (0)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,212/458 (+5/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 222 (+1)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 293/284 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,951 (0)
• Cruise missiles, 796 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,064 (+3)
• Special equipment, 200 (0)

Above: Russia targeted a Kramatorsk, Donetsk, residential neighborhood with an Iskander missile Wednesday evening. Search and rescue is ongoing under continuous enemy shelling, there are civilian deaths. (The Lviv Journal)

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and forty-fourth day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• During the past day, the enemy launched 6 rocket attacks, 4 of which hit the civilian infrastructure of the settlements of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka in the Donetsk region, as well as 4 air strikes. Fired 73 shots from rocket salvo systems. Peaceful people died from enemy strikes.
• The threat of Russian air and missile strikes remains throughout Ukraine.
• Last day, our soldiers repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of the settlements of Novoselivske, Ploshanka, Nevske, Chervonpopivka, Dibrova, Kuzmyne and Bilogorivka of the Luhansk region and Spirne, Bilogorivka, Vasyukivka, Blagodatne, Krasna Gora, Bakhmut and Klishchiivka of the Donetsk
• The invaders shelled the areas of the settlements of Klyusy and Yelina of the Chernihiv region; Anthills, Katerynivka, Vovkivka, Oleksandrivka and Volfyne in Sumy region and Veterinary, Strelecha, Glyboke, Zelene, Neskuchne, Ternova, Ohirtseve, Staritsa, Vovchansk and Budarka in Kharkiv
• In the Kupyansk direction, the enemy fired tanks and artillery at the areas of Dvorichna, Synkivka, Ivanivka, Kupyansk, Kislivka, Kotlyarivka, Tabaivka, Krokhmalne, Pishchane in the Kharkiv region and Novoselivske and Stelmakhivka in the Luhansk
• On the Lymanskyi direction, Novoyehorivka, Nevske and Dibrova in the Luhansk region and Terny and Serebryanka in the Donetsk region came under enemy fire.
• In the direction of Bakhmut, Verkhnokamianske, Spirne, Bilogorivka, Vesele, Paraskoviivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Predtechine, Stupochki, Druzhba and New York in Donetsk region were affected by fire.
• Severne, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Georgiivka, Maryinka, Pobyeda and Novomykhailivka came under enemy fire in the Avdiivsk
• In the direction of Novopavlivsk, Vugledar, Bogoyavlenka, Novoukrayinka, Prechistivka, Velyka Novosilka and Neskuchne of the Donetsk region were subjected to artillery fire.
• In the Zaporizhzhia region, more than 20 settlements were shelled, in particular, Vremivka in Donetsk region and Poltavka, Malynivka, Gulyaipole, Charivne, Orihiv and Novodanilivka in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• In the Kherson direction, Beryslav, Antonivka and Kherson, as well as Dmytrivka in Mykolayiv Oblast, were hit by artillery fire.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Above:  Kharkiv defenders are training for a possible new enemy offensive in their neighborhood. (National Review)

• Russian forces continued limited ground attacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line on February 1. Russian forces have not yet formed an assault group in the Svatove-Kreminna direction but are continuing to accumulate manpower and military equipment. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Yampolivka (16km west of Kreminna) in Donetsk Oblast.
• As of January 9, 2023, three-month contracts ended in one of the units of the occupiers operating in the Luhansk Because of this, about 300 servicemen of this formation do not receive financial support but are not released from military service due to declared mobilization.

Above: Black earth trench work near Bakhmut.  (New York Times)

• Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut on February 1. Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; northeast of Bakhmut near Spirne (25km northeast), Rozdolivka (15km northeast), Blahodatne (5km north), Krasna Hora (5km north, and Paraskoviivka (6km north); and southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka (7km southwest).
• Geolocated combat footage shows that Russian forces have made slight advances northeast of Bakhmut near Krasna Hora and on the northeastern and eastern outskirts of Bakhmut, as well as south of Bakhmut near Opytne and on Bakhmut’s southern outskirts.
• A Ukrainian defender described how the situation in Bakhmut has “radically changed” recently, since Russia has committed experienced mercenary and conventional military forces to augment human wave attacks in the Bakhmut area. The defender also said that Russian forces are using human “camels” to deliver ammunition and weapons to frontline positions.

Maryinka 🇺🇦
RuzZians are erasing towns and cities in Ukraine, block by block, house by house. Using thermobaric bombs and thermite ammo. Systematic destruction.#BoycottRussianSport #boycottrussia #BanRussianAthletes #BoycottOlympics #lviv pic.twitter.com/2QIOfkimsy

— TheLvivJournal (@LvivJournal) February 1, 2023

Above:  With increasing relentless attacks on civilians in Kherson, evacuation efforts are intensifying.  (New York Times)

• Russian forces are continuing to carry out disruption missions on islands in the Dnipro River delta in Kherson Oblast in an effort to prevent Ukrainian forces from gaining ground on the islands. Russian forces are increasing the number of reconnaissance and sabotage attempts in the area of the Dnipro River delta likely in an effort to simulate the threat of an escalation south of Kherson City.
• Russian forces did not have the capacity to hold western Kherson Oblast due to disrupted logistics in fall 2022 and are unlikely to be able to restore lost positions in the region.
• Russian forces are continuing intense shelling of Kherson City and western Kherson Oblast, likely in an effort to degrade civilian morale and deter any Ukrainian counterattacks across the Dnipro River.
• Crimean partisans may have conducted an IED attack in occupied Crimea on January 30. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on February 1 that members of the Atesh Ukrainian-Tatar resistance movement used an IED to kill two Russian Rosgvardia officers driving from Sevastopol to Simferopol, occupied Crimea, on January 30.