Victory Chronicles
-DAY 348

Above: February 5, 2022, was the end of the last flight of the Ukrainian-made AN-225 Mriya, the world’s largest cargo aircraft, performing humanitarian operations related to COVID. The inspiring Ukrainian plane was destroyed by the aggressors in the first days of the invasion.  A conversation takes place today whether to use funds to restore the aircraft now or to prioritize resources for the war effort. (Flying)

Video: Tribute to Mriya

Above: Unloading the first shipment of Canadian Leopard 2 tanks bound for the Ukrainian battlefield, in Wroclaw, Poland. (OSINTtechnical)

• Russian authorities continue to forcibly deport Ukrainian children from occupied Ukraine to Russia. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Luhansk People’s Republic and Republic of Karelia discussed a scheme to send Ukrainian children from occupied Luhansk Oblast to Karelia for “rest and rehabilitation.” Russian authorities aim to import certain quotas of Ukrainian children under the rest and rehabilitation scheme to improperly write off budget funds. Тhere is evidence that some Russian officials may be using these efforts to engage in human trafficking.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense is pushing to restructure and consolidate a mismatch of irregular forces fighting in Ukraine into conventional military forces while still in Putin’s favor. Russian irregular forces in Ukraine include contract and mobilized soldiers, Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics‘ forces, volunteer battalions, Russian Combat Army Reserve forces, Cossack and Chechen units and Wagner mercenaries, each with different objectives, limitations, pre-requisites, hierarchies, and legal statuses.
• US officials stated that Russia and Iran plan to build a factory in Russia to manufacture up to 6,000 drones for combat in Ukraine.
• An unspecified gunman shot Russian neo-nazi and military officer Igor “Bereg” Mangushev at close range in the back of the head at a checkpoint in occupied Kadiivka, Luhansk, on February 4. Last summer, Mangushev appeared at a concert brandishing the skull of an Azovstal defender and calling for the annihilation of the Ukrainian “idea”.

On Sunday, the Institute for the Study of War looked in-depth at Putin’s maximalist goals to reconstitute the Russian empire vis-a-vis his unwillingness to act boldly or take risks that threaten his power. 

• Putin ignored repeated calls from the Russian nationalist community in May 2022 to mobilize reservists, declare war on Ukraine, implement martial law in Russia, and modernize the military call-up system.
• Putin is reportedly conducting surveys to gauge Russians’ perception of mobilization and has not made up his mind on when to start further mobilization.
• Putin notably relies on a group of scapegoats to publicly take risks in his place and shoulder the blame for Russian military failures and unpopular policies. For example, Putin positioned the Russian defense minister to take the blame for mobilization and its many mistakes and failures.
• Putin has repeatedly reshuffled the Russian command structure throughout the war and allowed successive commanders to take blame, blaming military failures on a succession of individual commanders rather than his own disastrous leadership and bad decision making.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: A local Belgorod, Russia, government official reported “cotton” occurred in his district when a number of burning oil tankers lit up the skies this weekend. Nearby, a factory producing steel components for the repair of the Kerch Strait Bridge was damaged at the same time. The fires could disrupt enemy plans for a new offensive in eastern Ukraine and the repair schedule of the Kerch bridge. (UA Ministry of Defense)

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 132,160 (+870)
• Tanks, 3,231 (+11)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,415 (+10)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,231/461 (+5/1)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 227 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 294/284 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,958 (0)
• Cruise missiles, 796 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,104 (+13)
• Special equipment, 203 (0)

Above: Enemy fire destroyed the main building of the Kharkiv State University of Urban Economy on Sunday. (Aljazeera)

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and forty-eighth day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• Over the past day, our units repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of Verkhnokamianske, Vasyukivka, Paraskoviivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Kamianka, Severne, Pervomaiske, Vesele, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Pobyeda and Novomykhailivka settlements of the Donetsk
• At the same time, the enemy launched 4 missile strikes on the civilian infrastructure of Kharkiv and Druzhkivka in Donetsk and carried out 56 attacks from rocket salvo systems, in particular, on civilian objects in Kherson. There are dead and wounded.
• The threat of further Russian air and missile strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine remains high.
• Areas of settlements of Senkivka, Chernihiv region, were shelled; Novovasylivka, Seredyna-Buda, Sopych, Boyaro-Lezhachi, Volfyne and Oleksandrivka in Sumy Oblast and Strelecha, Neskuchne, Ternova, Staritsa, Ohirtseve, Budarky and Rublene in Kharkiv
• In the Kupyansk direction, the enemy fired at the areas of the settlements of Pishchane, Ivanivka, Kucherivka, Kislivka and Kotlyarivka in the Kharkiv region, as well as Novoselivske and Stelmakhivka in the Luhansk
• In the Lymansky direction, Terny of the Donetsk region and Makiivka, Ploshanka, Nevske, Chervonpopivka, Kreminna, Kuzmyne, Dibrova – Luhansk came under enemy fire.
• In the direction of Bakhmut, more than 25 districts of settlements were affected by fire, among them Spirne, Bilogorivka, Mykolaivka, Rozdolivka, Krasna Gora, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Stupochki, Tarasivka, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka and New York of the Donetsk
• Semenivka, Avdiivka, Severne, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Vesele, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Georgiivka, Maryinka, Pobyeda and Novomykhailivka came under artillery fire in the Avdiivsk
• In the Novopavlovsk direction, Vugledar, Bogoyavlenka, Novoukrainka, Prechistivka, Zolota Niva, Velyka Novosilka, and Neskuchne in Donetsk region were hit by tank, mortar, and artillery fire.
• In the Zaporozhye direction, more than 30 settlements were affected by the fire. Among them are Novopil, Olhivske, Poltavka, Malinivka, Chervone, Gulyaipole, Charivne, Mala Tokmachka, Novoandriivka, Stepove and Kamianske of the Zaporizhia region.
• In the Kherson direction, in particular, Kherson, as well as Zolota Balka, Havrylivka, Kachkarivka, Mylove, Beryslav, Vesele, Ivanivka, Mykilske, Chornobayivka, Antonivka, Dniprovske, and Honcharne of the Kherson region were shelled. In total, almost 20 settlements.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Above: First responders look at the missile damage to Kharkiv State University for Urban Economy. (Kharkiv Oblast Administration)

• Russian transfers of military equipment and elite units and the preparations of logistics in occupied Luhansk Oblast support forecasts for a western Luhansk Oblast–Bakhmut offensive. Occupation authorities and their families are are evacuating from northwestern Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kreminna area on February 4. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Kreminna itself and Hrekivka (27km northwest of Kreminna), Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna), and Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna).
• Ukrainian forces reportedly continue to strike Russian logistics in Luhansk Oblast. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces struck an industrial facility in Svatove with HIMARS rockets on February 4.

Above: The good guys on patrol near the Donetsk front line.  (Aljazeera)

• At the expense of attacks around Donetsk city, Russian forces have committed greater forces to offensive operations in the direction of Bakhmut intending to break through Ukrainian defenses in the past week but have been unsuccessful. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut itself, within 31km northeast of Bakhmut near Verkhokamianske, Krasna Hora, and Paraskoviivka; and 6km west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Vuhledar (30km southwest of Donetsk City) on February 4. Russian forces continue to bring in artillery and infantry personnel into the area and are likely preparing for the slow grinding assaults characteristic of Russian offensives in the rest of eastern Ukraine.
• Russian forces increased by 10,000–15,000 troops in Mariupol, which they are developing as a military base due to its proximity to Russia. Russia is also building up forces at barracks and settlements on roads leading to frontline positions.
• Russian forces have expanded convict recruitment efforts to target women, reportedly recruiting about 50 women from a women’s correctional colony in occupied Snizhne, Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian occupation officials banned all non-Orthodox churches from operating in Mariupol and began nationalizing the assets of these churches.

Video: In an update from Bakhmut, a Ukrainian defender points out that the enemy has been doing its best to advance the front around Bakhmut for months yet is threatening an imminent offensive.  

Update on Bakhmut, 5 February – Kiyanyn. pic.twitter.com/Tezc4t6Yef

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) February 5, 2023

 

Above: Repeated enemy strikes on Odesa’s power system caused failures that left the large metropolis without energy this weekend. Energy professionals worked 24/7 to restore power as the central government sent dozens of high-power generators to the city. A “very difficult situation” is expected to take at least a week to fully resolve.  (Korrespondent)

• Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian military assets in east (left) bank Kherson Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian Tor M2DT air defense system 12km southwest of Nova Kakhovka, Kherson,  and 8km from the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River on February 3, the second instance in two days..
• In the village of Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia, the occupiers converted a local children’s hospital into a military hospital. Admission of children has been stopped.