UKRAINIAN WORLD CONGRESS

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DAY 349

Victory Chronicles
-DAY 349

February 7,2023

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY: SANCTIONS HAVE LOOPHOLES BIG ENOUGH TO DRIVE A TANK THROUGH

Above:  Although Apple ceased official operations in Russia last March, resellers still maintain stores in high-end shopping centers by purchasing products through friendly neighboring countries.  However, sales of Apple products have dropped as prices are beyond the reach of all but the most wealthy Russians. A top-end MacBook Pro costs about $11,000. (Apple Insider)

  • The Russian government person in charge of children’s welfare toured the occupied territories.  She thanked Crimean occupation authorities for “accepting” children from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts. She announced “rehabilitation” programs in Crimea, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhya for Ukrainian children who need “special psychological assistance”, a euphemism used to justify the removal of Ukrainian children into Russian-controlled territory or deportation to Russia.
  • The enemy is regrouping and concentrating offensive operations towards five cities: Kupyanksk, Kharkiv; Lyman, Luhansk; and Bakhmut, Adiivka and Novopavlivka in Donetsk.
  • Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late February. Offensives are estimated to start from mid to late February, before the arrival of Western tanks and around the symbolic one-year anniversary of the start of the invasion.
  • Prominent Russian milbloggers assess that the rush to start the offensive is premature in terms of proper staging of adequate manpower and equipment. British Defence Intelligence assessed that “ Senior [Russian] commanders likely make plans requiring undermanned, inexperienced units to achieve unrealistic objectives due to political and professional pressure…It remains unlikely that Russia can build up the forces needed to substantially affect the outcome of the war within the coming weeks.”
  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz responded to Putin’s outlandish rhetoric during ceremonies to resurrect the cult of Stalin that Russia is once again fighting Nazi Germany and its Western allies.  Scholz stated that Putin’s remarks are “a part of a series of abstruse historical comparisons that he uses to justify his attack on Ukraine.”
  • Voice of America looked at all the ways that Russia circumvents Western sanctions to keep its economy stable and military manufacturing running including the use of middlemen from countries including China, Belarus, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Uzbekistan.  Last week, before the devastating earthquake, the US Department of the Treasury visited Ankara to discuss the option of secondary sanctions on Turkish businesses and banks that defy Russian sanctions.
  • UK investigative group Conflict Armament Research reported in November 2022 that 82% of Iranian drones downed in Ukraine had chips, semiconductors, and other components that came from the US despite high import and export control restrictions on such components to Iran. Most Western-manufactured components in the downed Iranian drones were produced between 2020 and 2021, following the expiration of United Nations Security Council heavy arms sanctions against Iran in 2020. It is well-known that Russia and Iran can exploit sanction loopholes allowing them to acquire Western-produced arms components via proxy actors.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: New York Times

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

  • Liquidated personnel, 133,190 (+1,030)
  • Tanks, 3,245 (+14)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 6,443 (+28)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,232/461 (+1/0)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 227 (0)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 294/284 (0)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 1958 (0)
  • Cruise missiles, 796 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 18 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,107 (+3)
  • Special equipment, 208 (+5)

GENERAL STAFF CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above:  Over the past 24 hours, the enemy shelled 23 population centers in the Zaporizhzhya region. (Suspilne)

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and forty-ninth day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

  • During the past day, the enemy launched 6 missile and 24 air strike It carried out 75 attacks from rocket salvo systems, in particular, on civilian objects in the Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson regions, there are victims among the civilian population.
  • The threat of further Russian air and missile strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine remains high.
  • Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of Novoselyvske, Kreminna and Dibrova settlements of Luhansk region and Verkhnyokamianske, Vesele, Zaliznyanske, Krasna Gora, Bakhmut, Ivanovske and Paraskoviivka of Donetsk
  • The areas of Popivka and Oleksandrivka settlements of Sumy region and Strelecha, Hlyboke, Krasne, Gatyshche, Vovchansk and Dvorichna settlements of Kharkiv region were shelled.
  • In the Kupyansk direction, the enemy shelled the areas of Ivanivka, Kucherivka, Kislivka, and Kotlyarivka in Kharkiv Oblast, as well as Novoselivske and Stelmakhivka in Luhansk Oblast, with tanks, mortars, and artillery.
  • On the Lymanskyi direction, Terny in the Donetsk region and Ploshanka, Chervonopivka, Kreminna and Dibrova in the Luhansk region were affected by fire.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, Spirne, Berestov, Belogorivka, Krasna Gora, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka and Ozaryanivka came under enemy fire.
  • Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Georgiivka, Maryinka, Pobyeda and Novomykhailivka were damaged by fire in the Avdiivka
  • In the direction of Novopavlivsk, enemy shelling was recorded in Vugledar, Prechistivka, Zolotia Niva, and Neskuchny in the Donetsk
  • In the Zaporizhzhia region, the areas of 23 settlements were shelled, in particular, Novopil, Olgivske, Gulyaipole, Charivne, Mala Tokmachka, Stepove in Zaporizhzhia, and Velikomykhailivka of the Dnipropetrovsk
  • Areas of 19 settlements were hit by mortar and artillery fire in the Kherson Among them are Gola Prystan, Zolota Balka, Kachkarivka, Mylove, Antonivka and Kherson.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above:  Kupyansk was occupied in February and liberated in September 2022 during the Kharkiv counteroffensive. The enemy may be making slow gains to the northeast this week. (War Monitor)

Map via ISW
  • Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhii Haidai stated on Telegram Monday that the enemy is preparing for offensives towards Svatove, Kreminna and Bilohorivka, massing equipment and shipping in newly mobilized troops. Mr Haidai estimated offensives to start in one to two weeks.
  • Deputy Head of the Kharkiv Oblast Administration Roman Semenukha stated on February 6 that there is no threat of an offensive on Kharkiv City and noted that social media rumors about an attack on Kharkiv City are Russian information operations to demoralize Ukrainian forces ahead of a major Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast. .
  • Russian forces likely made tactical gains northeast of Kupyansk between February 4 and 6. Multiple Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Synkivka (10 km northeast of Kupyansk) on February 6.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Kreminna and Shypylivka on February 5.

DONETSK

Above:  Ukrainian tank brigade members check their camouflaged T-64 main battle tank near the Donbas frontlines.  (Kyiv Independent)

Map via ISW
  • Russian forces have not yet encircled Bakhmut as of February 6. A Ukrainian soldier who is fighting in Bakhmut stated on February 5 that despite Russian efforts to cut off the T0504 Kostyantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut road west of Bakhmut and the E40 Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway north of Bakhmut, supply to the city continues.
  • Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; northeast of Bakhmut near Verkhnokamyanske (32km northeast), Blahodatne (7km north), Krasna Hora (3km north), Paraskoviivka (5km north), and Vasyukivka (12km north); and southwest of Bakhmut near Ivanivske (5km west) and Klishchiivka (7km southwest).
  • Various geolocated footage posted on February 5 confirms marginal Russian advances northeast of Bakhmut in Krasna Hora and in the Rozdolivka-Mykolaivka area (15km northeast), in urban areas in northeastern Bakhmut, and southwest of Bakhmut near Opytne (3km south), Ozarianivka (15km southwest) and Klishchiivka.
  • Russian forces continued ground attacks around Avdiivka and on the western outskirts of Donetsk City on February 6. Geolocated footage posted on February 5 shows marginal Russian advances within western Marinka.
  • A Ukrainian officer reported on February 6 that the situation around Vuhledar is mostly stable and that Russian forces are conducting small frontal assaults with fire support but are overall hesitant to launch a large-scale attack and that Russian units fighting in the area—the 155th and 40th Naval Infantry Brigade—are largely destroyed.
  • Mariupol occupation authorities will shut down internet access indefinitely starting February 11, likely in an effort to prevent residents from sharing Russian military movements.

ZAPORIZHZHYA-KHERSON-CRIMEA

Above: Citizen volunteers in Kherson work to clean streets after daily enemy shelling. (Kherson Online)

Maps via ISW
  • DTEK power company reported that Odesa residents can expect two hours of power followed by eight hours of blackout as repairs continue 24/7.
  • Russian forces continue aerial reconnaissance and use civilian boats for reconnaissance operations on islands in the Dnipro River delta but are not making preparations for an attack from the south and have not changed positions in the southern direction.
  • Russian occupation officials continue efforts to consolidate control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Russian occupation officials in Enerhodar abducted ZNPP employees who refused to sign contracts with Russian state nuclear power company Rosatom.
  • For long-term force-generation efforts, the Kherson occupiers are introducing cadet classes for 10th and 11th grades where students study military affairs and will be offered non-commissioned officer status in the event of draft, providing additional confirmation of the Kremlin’s plans for long-term occupation and war.

 

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