Victory Chronicles
-DAY 356

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY: RU POSTPONING MOBILIZATION 2.0 DUE TO BUGS IN 1.0

Above: “What is happening in Moldova is very serious.” Moscow is fomenting unrest in Moldova in the same way it worked in 2014 in Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk and Odesa and more.  Typically, it sends in organizers and paid actors to spread propaganda and recruit locals to stage escalating protests that lead to orders from Moscow for military intervention to protect some imagined Russian interest.  On Monday, Moldova’s President Maia Sandu disclosed intelligence about a Kremlin plot to “break the democratic order” in the small country closely allied with Romania. (The Lviv Journal)

• The deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence explained to the Wall Street Journal that while everything is in place to begin a second mobilization wave, the Kremlin is postponing  a second wave of mobilization as it struggles to integrate troops mobilized last fall and early winter. The deployment of these poorly trained and scantily-equipped troops thus far has led to exceptionally high casualty rates.  Ukraine has no doubt, however, that a next wave of mobilization is on the way.
• The Guardian revealed how Iran has used boats and its state-owned airline to smuggle a new type of advanced long-range drones to Russia for use in its war on Ukraine. At least six  Mohajer-6 drones have been handed to Russia, which have a range of 200 km and carry two missiles under each wing. They are designed to deliver their missiles and return to base intact.  Both countries border the Caspian Sea.
• At least 81 delegates of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe from 20 countries, including France, Canada, Britain, Poland and Ukraine, called upon the Austrian government to prohibit the participation of sanctioned Russian lawmakers at the next meeting February 23-24. While Austria professes the desire to remain neutral on the subject of Russia’s war of aggression, other countries point out that complicit Russian delegates including intelligence agents have no place at a strategy meeting about security and peace in Europe.
• Independent Russian-language opposition investigators from Meduza reported that Russia’s public information censoring body will soon ban YouTube and that Russian state-affiliated social media outlet VK is trying to recruit popular Russian-language YouTube creators to its video service.
• Valentine’s Day 2023 is also the 9th meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group known as “Ramstein” in Belgium in which a coalition of about 50 countries coordinate military aid to Ukraine.  Ukraine’s Minister of Defense said that the priorities are tanks and protecting Ukrainian skies.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: CTV News

General Staff on Facebook

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

GENERAL STAFF CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Kupyansk, Kharkiv, was liberated last fall.  Residents are steeling themselves for another attack as Russian milbloggers claim steady advances in the Kupyansk direction.  

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and fifty-sixth day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• During the past day, the enemy launched 2 missile and 32 air strikes. Fired 55 rounds from multiple rocket launchers.
• The threat of strikes by the Russian Federation remains high throughout the territory of Ukraine. At the same time, our air defense system is constantly being strengthened.
• Over the past day, units of our soldiers repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of Hryanivikka settlements of the Kharkiv region; Nevske, Kreminna, Kuzmine, Shipylivka and Bilogorivka – Luhansk and Fedorivka, Paraskoviivka, Bakhmut, Vodyane, Maryinka and Pobieda in Donetsk
• The areas of Yanzhulivka settlements of Chernihiv region were subjected to enemy shelling last day; Tovstodubove, Vovkivka, Bilokopytove, Volfine and Basivka in the Sumy region and Veterinarne, Krasne, Vovchansk and Dvorichanske in the Kharkiv
• On the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions, the enemy fired tanks, mortars, and artillery at the areas of the settlements of Novomlynsk, Dvorichna, Masyutivka, Synkivka, Kupyansk, Stepova, Kislivka, Tabaivka, Krokhmalne, Berestov, Pishchane, Vyshneve, and Cherneshchyna of the Kharkiv region; Stelmakhivka, Makiivka, Ploshanka, Nevske, Dibrova and Bilogorivka in the Luhansk region and Ivanivka, Spirne and Rozdolivka in the Donetsk
• In the Bakhmut direction, areas of the settlements of Bilogorivka, Vesele, Vasyukivka, Zaliznianske, Bakhmut, Oleksandro-Shultine, Ozaryanivka, Diliivka and Mayorsk in Donetsk region were hit by mortar and artillery fire.
• On the Avdiyiv and Novopavliv areas, areas of populated areas, which are not far from the contact line, came under tank, mortar and artillery shelling. Among them are Avdiivka, Severne, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Pobieda, Bogoyavlenka, Novoukrainka, Prechistivka and Zolota Niva of the Donetsk
• In the Zaporozhye direction, Vremivka and Novopil in Donetsk region were affected by fire; Olgivske, Gulyaipole, Staroukrainka, Gulyaipilske, Charivne, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanilivka, Novoandriivka, Stepove, Kamianske of the Zaporizhzhia region and Illinka and Nikopol – Dnipropetrovsk
• In the Kherson direction, the enemy repeatedly fired mortars, barrel and rocket artillery at civilian objects in Kherson, as well as Antonivka, Kherson region.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Ukrainian servicemen taking part in military drills in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine. (Wall Street Journal)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks northwest of Svatove on February 12 and 13. Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian ground attack near Hryanikivka (55km northwest of Svatove) on February 13.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Kreminna area on February 12 and 13. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults near Kreminna itself; 10km south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka and the Hryhorivka forest area in Luhansk Oblast; and 13km west of Kreminna near Torske, Donetsk Oblast, on February 12 and 13.
• Russian forces are concentrating their efforts in the Lyman direction west of Kreminna and increasing their use of artillery in Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian sources claim that Russian Spetsnaz forces are working in the Torske area west of Kreminna, working efficiently with mobilized personnel, pushing a narrative that Russian forces are dedicating effective personnel to offensive operations near Kreminna.
• Ukraine’s General Staff reported that due to a lack of dogtags, enemy soldiers in Luhansk have been ordered to carry pieces of paper in their breast pocket with personal information.

DONETSK

Above:   Russia is regrouping and attacking on five fronts in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as part of its new 2023 offensive. (Wall Street Journal)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued making tactical gains and conducted ground attacks around Bakhmut on February 12 and 13. Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; northeast of Bakhmut near Fedorivka (15km northeast) and Vyimka (22km northeast); north of Bakhmut near Vasyukivka (12km north); southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka (7km southwest); and west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske (5km west) and Chasiv Yar (10km west) on February 12 and 13.
• Wagner Group forces captured Krasna Hora (4km north of Bakhmut) on February 12, which is confirmed by footage and imagery of Wagner fighters in Krasna Hora. The Russian MoD confirmed the capture of Krasna Hora on February 13 and stated that “volunteers of assault detachments” took the settlement, purposefully not crediting Wagner.
• A Russian serviceman from the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade who participated in an assault on Vuhledar told a Russian opposition outlet that the brigade was 80% to 90% staffed with poorly-trained mobilized men. The Russian military now needs to restaff the brigade for the third time due to recent losses in Vuhledar and previous military failures in Kyiv Oblast and Pavlivka, Donetsk.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks along the western outskirts of Donetsk City on February 12.  Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Pervomaiske and on the southwestern outskirts near Pobieda and Marinka on February 12.
• Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack in western Donetsk Oblast on February 12.
• Russian forces may establish a Black Sea Fleet base at the Azov shipyard in occupied Mariupol, further indicating that Russian forces intend to transform Mariupol into a large military base rather than rebuilding the city for its inhabitants.

ZAPORIZHZHYA-KHERSON-CRIMEA

Above: Occupation troops patrol an utterly destroyed Mariupol. Kadyrovite-associated elites are carving up assets in Mariupol. BBC Russia reported that a Chechen businessman and Kadyrov patron took a 50% stake in the once gigantic Ilych Steel Plant, owned by Ukraine’s own richest oligarch, Rimat Akhmetov. The Chechen is also planning a chain of restaurants and cafes in a fantasized Russian Mariupol.  

Maps via ISW

• Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations in Kherson or Mykolaiv oblasts between February 12 and February 13. Russian forces are not deploying military equipment or personnel to Kherson Oblast that would threaten Ukrainian positions on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River.
• Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked Ukrainian positions in western Zaporizhia Oblast on February 13 while continuing to fortify their positions. Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault on Zaliznychne (about 78km southeast of Zaporizhzhia City).
• Russian occupation authorities imported deputies from Chelyabinsk and Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia, to occupied Zaporizhia Oblast as Ukrainian civilians are continuing to refuse to cooperate with the Russian occupation administration.  Russian occupation authorities imported 800 police officers to occupied Zaporizhia Oblast from Russia to fortify occupation law enforcement and further suppress anti-Ukraine sentiment in occupied territories.