Victory Chronicles
-DAY 369

Above:  Belarusian partisans took credit for destroying a rare Russian spy plane on an airstrip at Machulishchy airbase near Minsk, Belarus, on Sunday, using drones.  The Beriev A-50 plane was manufactured in the Soviet Union with an estimated current value of $330 million, and Russia is unable to replace it. Three such specially modified spy planes were known to be operative in Russia, possibly cannibalizing another six planes for on-going maintenance. In its latest assignment, the plane has been used from Belarus to gather intelligence on Ukrainian troops and correct missile strikes.  (RebeccaRambar)

Now on every propaganda channel in #Belarus. Still silent. Since the morning, all officials and ministries have been trying to come up with a version of what happened in Machulishchy. The A-50 aircraft is expensive and strategically important for strikes. I mean, it was. pic.twitter.com/5EjfuGHIcA

— Hanna Liubakova (@HannaLiubakova) February 26, 2023

Above: “Russians exhibit Ukrainian children whose mother was killed in Mariupol at a propaganda concert in Moscow.”  Russian authorities are exploiting Ukrainian children from Mariupol as propaganda to falsely portray Russia as the savior of occupied areas. Russians are forcing Ukrainian children who survived the Siege of Mariupol to travel to multiple propaganda events, including a Moscow extravaganza on February 22, in which the children thanked Kremlin proxies for saving them. The children were either separated from or lost relatives during the siege and were then forcibly removed from occupied Ukraine. (Euromaidan Press)

Above: The United Nations Human Rights Council will convene today in New York where almost 150 ministers and heads of state –  including China, Iran and Russia – will address the council over the next four days. One of the council’s key goals will be passing a resolution to investigate Russian war crimes. The Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine has already determined that Russia has committed war crimes on a massive scale for which its leaders should be brought to justice. (Photo: New York Times)

• Russian propaganda outlet TASS reported that Putin acknowledged the possibility of a break-up of the Russian Federation, echoing comments made by US Lt General Ben Hodges last fall.  While General Hodges attributed a possible break-up to severe fundamental weaknesses in the empire’s foundation, Putin blamed it on Western aggression led by the United States. Russia’s current empire is made up of 85 legal entities incorporated over centuries of imperialist aggression and held together today by Moscow-directed security, military and propaganda forces.
• Russian plans to reduce oil output in order to increase prices were offset by reduced global demand and a stronger dollar.  Under G7-imposed oil price caps in effect in December 2022, Russia has rerouted much of its output away from Europe and towards India, China and Turkey – countries that are now able to buy Russian oil at prices just over the price cap.  Some analysts calculate that Russia is now losing money on every barrel produced taking into account costs of production and increased transportation costs to the east.
• ISW’s Sunday edition focused on Russian mobilization woes, the tension between critical troop shortages and the humiliation of ordering another round of mobilization for an advertised quick “special military operation”. ISW observed that in May 2022, the Kremlin was already making tough choices about where to deploy forces on the Luhansk-Donetsk front and was likely encouraged by its MoD to implement a broad involuntary mobilization. Instead, Moscow resorted to sleight of hand by relying on ultranationalist enthusiasm, pushing troop mobilization to the regions and mercenary recruitment.
• Russian forces are replacing Battalion Tactical Groups with a new unit called the “Assault Unit” due to failures with their current assault tactics. Russian forces are trying to switch mid-war to smaller, more agile assault units that are responsive to specific mission requirements.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: Captured enemy tank repaired and put into service of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. (OSINTtechnical)

Above: Destroyed enemy tank in a field near Kamenka, Kharkiv.  This one probably won’t be repaired.  (Kyiv Independent)

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 148,690 (+560)
• Tanks, 3,385 (+4)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,621 (+6)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,380/475 (0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 247 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 300/288 (+1/0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 2,048 (+11)
• Cruise missiles, 873 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,248 (+6)
• Special equipment, 230 (0)

Above: Ukrainians’ ability to quickly repair much of the damage to critical and residential  infrastructure is a source of national pride and global admiration. (ABC News)

Glory to Ukraine!
The three hundred and sixty-ninth day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• The Russian Federation continues to wage full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine. The main efforts are focused on conducting offensive operations in the Kupyan, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiiv and Shakhtar directions. Yesterday, our defenders repelled 81 attacks by the occupiers in these areas.
• The enemy is trying to destroy the critical infrastructure of our state, continues to strike, carry out artillery shelling of civilian objects and houses of the civilian population. The enemy constantly conducts aerial reconnaissance to adjust its strikes.
• Over the past 24 hours, the Russians have launched 5 missile and 13 air strikes, 2 of which were carried out by Shahed-136 UAVs against civilian infrastructure. Both drones were shot down. Also, the enemy launched more than 50 attacks from rocket salvo systems, in particular, on civilian infrastructure in the Kherson region and Donetsk There are dead and wounded civilians, destroyed civilian houses and damaged civilian infrastructure. The level of the threat of Russian missile strikes remains high throughout the territory of Ukraine.
• The enemy carried out mortar and artillery shelling of the areas of Khrinivka and Katerynivka settlements of Chernihiv region; Girky, Atynske, Stukalyvka, Hyrine, Pavlivka, Volfyne of the Sumy Region, as well as Veterinarne, Cherovna Zorya, Strelecha, Staritsa, Vovchanski Khutory, Chernyak, Loshakovo, Krasne Pershe, Stroivka, Novomlynsk, Dvorichna, Zapadne, and Kupyansk of the Kharkiv In the vicinity of Popivka of the Sumy region and Krasnaya Zora, the enemy used an unmanned aerial vehicle with a combat load.
• On the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions, the enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Novoselyvskyi, Ploschanka, Bilogorivka, Spirnyi, and Berestovo. Enemy artillery shelling was recorded in more than 25 settlements. Among them are Lyman First and Kurylivka in the Kharkiv region and Novoselivske, Chervonopivka, Dibrova, Serebryansk Forestry, Bilogorivka, Spirne, Rozdolivka and Fedorivka in the Luhansk
• In the Bakhmut direction, the enemy continues to attack the positions of our troops, carried out unsuccessful offensive actions near the settlements of Dubovo-Vasylivka, Yagidne, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, and Severny Donetsk region. Areas of more than 25 settlements, including: Dubovo-Vasylivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Bila Gora, Ozaryanivka, Stupochki, Zalizne, and Pivdene of Donetsk region, were shelled.
• On the Avdiiv and Shakhtar directions, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensives in the areas of Kamianka, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, and Vugledar settlements. He carried out artillery shelling in areas of populated areas, in particular, Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, Lastochkino, Pervomaisky, Nevelsky, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, Vugledar, and Vremivka, Donetsk
• In the Zaporizhzhia direction, more than 30 settlements were affected by fire. Among them are Vremivka and Novopil of Donetsk region; Olhivske, Malynivka, Chervone, Charivne, Biloghirya, Novodanilivka, Orikhov and Novoandriivka of the Zaporizhzhia
• In the Kherson direction, Mykhailivka, Kachkarivka, Lviv, Antonivka, Kherson, Komyshany, Blagovishchenske, Bilozerka, Dniprovske and Berehove of the Kherson region were affected by the artillery fire of the Russian occupation forces. And in general, the districts of 27 settlements.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Above: The Kharkiv Oblast Administration reports that over 1500 residential units have been damaged by enemy strikes in the last year.  Ukraine hopes to compensate citizens for repairs and encourages people to save receipts. (Kharkiv Today)

Above: Soviet statue Workers of Luhansk.  In a long interview with Ukrainska Pravda over the weekend, the head of the Ukrainian State border Guard Service Serhii Deineko predicted that the areas of Luhansk Oblast under occupation since 2014 will be liberated in the fall of 2023.

• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks northwest of Svatove on February 25. Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful offensive action near Masyutivka (51km northwest of Svatove). Geolocated footage posted on February 24 shows Ukrainian forces shelling Russian infantry in Dzherelne (15km west of Svatove).
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in the Kreminna area on February 25. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna), Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna), and in the Serebrianska forest area (10km south of Kreminna). Luhansk Governor Haidai said that Russian forces suffered heavy losses in an assault near Kreminna with 70 killed in action and about 70 wounded in the course of a three-company assault.

Above: Pokrovsk, Donetsk, is under constant enemy shelling and rocket attacks, yet the local government has vowed to keep roads open. (Pokrovsk News)

Above: Assessed combat operations around Fortress Bakhmut as of Feb 26 at 22:00 Kyiv time.  (Military Land)

• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut. On February 25, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut), Berkhivka (4km north of Bakhmut), Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut), and Pivnichne (21km southwest of Bakhmut).
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the western outskirts of Donetsk City and in western Donetsk Oblast. On February 25, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Avdiivka and within 36km southwest of Avdiivka near Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Marinka, and Novomykhailivka. Geolocated footage published on February 25 indicates that Russian forces likely made marginal advances southwest of Avdiivka and near Pobieda (32km southwest of Avdiivka).
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast. On February 25, Russian forces conducted attacks near Vuhledar (30km southwest of Donetsk City). There has been an increase in Russian forces conducting assaults without armored support and even some instances of armored personnel carriers driving infantry to the frontline for dismounted assaults and then withdrawing. The enemy 155th and 40th Naval Infantry Brigades of the Pacific Fleet have merged into one brigade because of significant losses in the Vuhledar area. Russian forces deployed a Rosgvardia special rapid response unit to prevent these personnel from rioting and refusing to fight.

Above: A team of volunteers from Ivano-Frankivsk region is working in Kherson to repair damage to housing. The Kherson Oblast Administration reported that the enemy shelled population centers in Kherson Oblast 97 times on Sunday. (Suspilne)

• Russian forces continue to struggle to conduct effective combat operations on the Zaporizhia Oblast front line. Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) released an intercepted call in which a Russian service member claimed that 120 soldiers of the Russian 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (19th Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) tried to conduct reconnaissance near Shcherbaky (32km northwest of Tokmak) but Ukrainian forces struck all 120 personnel.
• Russian forces are accumulating a large amount of Russian personnel and equipment near Vasylivka and Hulyaipole in Zaporizhia
• Due to fears of the de-occupation of Ukrainian territories, in the settlements of Oleshki and Skadovsk of the Kherson region, Russian occupying officials are preparing to flee to the territory of the temporarily occupied Crimea. Since February 21, the departure of local collaborators to Bakhchisaray, Simferopol, and Kerch has been seen, and since February 24, the occupiers have announced the so-called “evacuation” to all interested parties.