Victory Chronicles
-DAY 370

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY

Above: Spotted in Minsk.  Like Ukraine and Moldova, Belarus is sandwiched between the European Union and the Russian Empire. (NOËL)

Above: Map of Europe in 1914, on the eve of WWI.  A century of tumult has redrawn the map and the EU’s newest eastern members – freed by the disintegration of Soviet power – are rising as a counterweight to Old European heft.  The Economist took a critical look at Eastern EU’s growing strength. 

• US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen paid an unannounced visit to Kyiv on Monday.  Ms Yellen announced the latest transfer of $1.25 bn in economic and budget aid to Ukraine. Ms Yellen emphasizes that the US has been clear with China on any help to Russia securing weapons and evading sanctions would face consequences. “And we have been very clear with the Chinese government and have made clear to Chinese firms and financial institutions that the consequences of violating those sanctions would be very severe.”
• Ukrainian Deputy Head of the Main Military Intelligence Directorate Vadim Skibitskyi stated on February 26 that Ukrainian forces will be ready for a counteroffensive in spring 2023 and that one Ukrainian strategic goal is to split the Russian frontline between Crimea and mainland Russia. Skibitskyi noted that the supply of Western military aid is one decisive factor in determining the timing of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
• Russia is increasingly framing the war with Ukraine as existential to the continued existence of the Russian Federation as a prelude to taking increasingly drastic actions to avoid failure such as a mandatory involuntary mobilization in coming weeks.
• Russian officials announced on February 27 that occupied territories will begin to pay out social support on March 1 including pensions, payments for children, free medical care, and other social benefits. Primary school students in occupied territories were promised academic and social scholarships, free hot meals and textbooks.
• Belarusian President Lukashenka will likely let Russia use Belarusia’s industrial-manufacturing base to help evade sanctions in an attempt to alleviate pressure to join Russia’s war of aggression. He claimed that the Belarusian defense industry can produce weapons since Belarus has access to microelectronics, optics, and other component imports from post-Soviet states who kept their Soviet stocks of these items.
• Budget airline Wizz Air said it will end flights to the Moldovan capital of Chisinau next month because of concerns over the safety of Moldovan airspace.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Nighttime drones visited an oil depot north of Sochi on the Black Sea. (MI.IN.UA)

General Staff on Facebook

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 149,240 (+550)
• Tanks, 3,388 (+3)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,630 (+9)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,383/478 (+3/3)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 247 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 300/288 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 2,051 (+3)
• Cruise missiles, 873 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,252 (+4)
• Special equipment, 230 (0)

GENERAL STAFF CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Fortress Bakhmut still holds, but the enemy is slowly closing in and the situation may be reaching a critical stage for Ukrainian defenders.  (ABC News)

Glory to Ukraine!
Day 370 of the full-scale russian military aggression has begun.

• The russian federation focuses its main efforts on conducting offensive actions on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtars’k axes. Yesterday, our soldiers repelled more than 60 enemy attacks in the indicated axes.
• At the same time, the enemy launched 8x missile and 32x air strike Attacked 85x times from MLRS.
• The threat of further missile strikes is significant throughout the territory of Ukraine.
• The occupiers shelled the settlements of Tymonovichi and Berylivka of the Chernihiv Oblast; Starykove, Brusky, Buvalyne, Kruzhok, Manukhivka, Atynske, Porozok in the Sumy Oblast and Chervona Zorya, Veterinarne, Strelecha, Gatishche, Vovchansk and Vovchanski Khutory in the Kharkiv
• Kupyansk and Lyman axes: the adversary carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Makiivka, Ploshanka, Kreminna, Dibrova and Bilogorivka settlements of the Luhansk They carried out artillery shelling in the vicinities of Dvorichna, Liman Pershiy, Hryanikyvka, Kurylivka, Kislivka and Tabaivka settlements of the Kharkiv Oblast; Novoselivske, Nevske, Chervopopivka and Dibrova – Luhansk, Spirne and Rozdolivka in the Donetsk Oblast.
• Bakhmut axis: the Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Vasyukivka, Orihovo-Vasylivka, Berkhivka, Yagidne and Bakhmut settlements of the Donetsk Zaliznyanske, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Berkhivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Stupochki, Kostyantynivka, Klishchiivka, Zalizne, Ozaryanivka, Mayorsk, Pivdenne and New York were under enemy fire.
• Avdiivka and Shakhtars’ke axes: the enemy continues to attack the positions of our troops and has carried out several unsuccessful offensives in the direction of Kam’ianka, Krasnohorivka, and Mar’yinka, Donetsk They conducted artillery and mortar shelling of the areas of the settlements of Avdiivka, Lastochkine, Netaylove, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, Nevelske, Mar’yinka, Bogoyavlenka, Novomykhailivka, Velyka Novosilka, Neskuchne, and Vugledar.
• Zaporizhzhia axis: more than 20x settlements were affected by fire. Among them are Vremivka and Novopil’ of the Donetsk Oblast; Komyshuvakha, Olhivske, Malynivka, Gulyaipole, Zaliznychne, Charivne, Orihiv and Novoandriivka of the Zaporizhzhia
• Kherson axis: 25x settlements of the Kherson Oblast were damaged by the artillery fire of the russian occupation forces, in particular, Havrylivka, Kachkarivka, Vesele, Tyaginka, Inzhenerne, Antonivka, Berehove and Kherson.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Wreckage of one of three drones that crashed in Belgorod, Russia, on Monday. (New Voice of Ukraine)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces have escalated operations in the Svatove, Kreminna, and Bilohorivka directions in recent weeks and have been concentrating equipment and reserves in occupied Luhansk
• Russian forces have been concentrating and escalating operations along the Luhansk Oblast frontline. Russian forces concentrated infantry, airborne and Luhansk People’s Republic forces in eastern Ukraine and have attempted to use armored vehicles in combat in the past several weeks.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northwest of Svatove on February 26 and 27. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Masyutivka (52km northwest of Svatove), Novoselivske (16km northwest of Svatove), and Stelmakhivka (17km northwest of Svatove) on February 26 and 27.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks near Kreminna on February 26 and 27. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Kreminna, northwest of Kreminna near Ploshchanka (17km northwest) and Nevske (18km northwest); west of Kreminna near Torske (14km west); southwest of Kreminna near Dibrova (6km southwest); south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka (12km south); and near the Serebrianska forest area (11km south) on February 26 and 27.  Geolocated footage suggests that Russian forces have likely pushed Ukrainian forces west from the R66 near Pishchane and Chervonopopivka (5-6km northwest of Kreminna).

DONETSK

Above: Fortress Bakhmut. (Wall Street Journal)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut on February 26 and 27. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks on Bakhmut itself; north of Bakhmut near Vasyukivka (13km north), Zaliznianske (8km north), Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km northwest), Orikhovo-Vasylivka (10km northwest), Berkhivka (4km north), Yahidne (1km northwest), and Bohdanivka (8km northwest); west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske (5km west); and southwest of Bakhmut.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on February 26 and 27. Russian troops conducted unsuccessful attacks north of Donetsk City near Avdiivka, Sieverne, and Kamianka, on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Vodyane, Nevelske, and Krasnohorivka, and on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Marinka.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on February 26 and 27. Russian troops conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Vuhledar (30km southwest of Donetsk City) on February 27. Geolocated footage posted on February 25 and 26 shows that Russian forces made minor advances on an unspecified date directly south of Vuhledar.
• The enemy’s  155th Naval Infantry Brigade has suffered continually catastrophic losses in assaults on Vuhledar. The Ukrainian Resistance Center cited a prisoner-of-war interview with a 155th Naval Infantry Brigade infantryman who claimed that the brigade lost 6,800 people during the year (even though the brigade has a total complement of 1,200). The infantryman stated that the brigade has undergone seven or eight reformations and received recruits from volunteers, mobilized, convicts, and Pacific Fleet sailors.

ZAPORIZHZHYA-KHERSON-CRIMEA

Above: “Unconquered Kherson” is a new photo exhibit in Khmelnytsky “about the thirst for freedom of the brave and fearless people of Kherson, about their resistance to the Russian occupation, which continues to this day” by Kherson photographer Oleksandr Kornyakov. (Castles of Ternopil National Park)

Maps via ISW

• Russian forces are increasing efforts to build defenses in Crimea and have transported 150 personnel from Chelyabinsk Oblast to perform engineering work in Crimea. Satellite imagery dated February 25 shows that Russian forces recently established trenches and roadblocks along the M17 and T-2202 highways approaching Armiansk from the northwest.