Victory Chronicles
-DAY 390

Above:  The race for millions of artillery shells is intense. A Ukrainian weapons manufacturer announced the start up of production of 125-mm shells for Ukraine’s soviet-era  tanks.  The business now operates abroad in cooperation with unnamed NATO-country partners. They also supply 82-mm, 120-mm mortars and 122-mm, 152-mm artillery shells. (Ukroboronprom)

Above: The controlling regime brutally suppressed protests in 2020 following a sham election for Lukashenka. The UN High Commission for Human Rights released a statement on Friday, calling on Belarusian authorities to end systemic repression, citing a OHCHR  human rights report that concludes, “Our report paints an unacceptable picture of impunity and the near-total destruction of civic space and fundamental freedoms in Belarus.” (Hanna Liubakova)

Above: Tracking Xi’s flight from Beijing to Moscow today. China’s dictator-for-life arrives in Moscow for a “peace journey” to promote an image of China as a peacemaker.  China faces a dilemma between feeling at home with fellow anti-freedom states and its economic dependency on developed-country consumerism.  It is precisely the economic entanglement that would make China susceptible to sanction pain if it chooses to help Moscow solve its war materiél deficits. (Photo: Intermarium 24)

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

• In its abbreviated Sunday edition, ISW discussed prospects for a Ukrainian counteroffensive around Bakhmut and/or southern Ukraine. Ongoing Russian offensives along the Svatove-Kreminna line, around Bakhmut,  Avdiivka-Donetsk City and Vuhledar have failed to significant gains for over half a year. .
• Russia has already deployed approximately 318,000 newly-mobilized troops mobilized in Ukraine with the aim to bring about a breakthrough in the east, but have failed. ISW assesses that additions from future mobilization waves will not produce a dramatically different outcome in 2023.
• Moscow is increasing efforts to stop anti-war protests and material support to Ukraine by increasing criminal penalties and “KGB” aggression against Russian citizens.  In one instance, 40 people detained on suspicion of helping Ukraine were forced to take part in pro-war demonstrations.
• Russian society is increasing campaigns to militarize its youth.  Independent Russian news outlet Verstka assessed on March 17 that at least 16 Russian federal districts have spent  about $2.6 million on youth military-patriotic camp recruitment. Students of various ages learn shooting, hand grenades, marching to patriotic songs and Russian ideological propaganda.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: Enemy Kamaz truck valued at $1.5 million seen in a swamp after the driver missed his turn. (Special Kherson Cat)

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 165,610 (+700)
• Tanks, 3,537 (+5)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,869 (+16)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,577/507 (+9/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 270 +2)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 305/290 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 2,160 (+1)
• Cruise missiles, 907 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,416 (+8)
• Special equipment, 265 (+3)

Above: Avdiivka, Donetsk, this weekend. The invaders intensified attacks on civilians in Donetsk Oblast over the weekend.  At least three civilians were killed and 18 were wounded. The enemy used cluster munitions on Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka. Ukraine has argued that it is important to stop the enemy at Bakhmut because it would only advance to the next industrialized urban area in western Donetsk.  (The Kyiv Independent)

Glory to Ukraine!
The 390th day of the Russian large-scale invasion had begun.

• Yesterday, the Russian Federation continued to use terror tactics against the civilian population of Ukraine. By shelling populated areas and critical infrastructure facilities, the enemy completely ignores the laws and customs of war.
• The Russian occupiers launched 6 missile and 13 air strikes, carried out 56 attacks from rocket salvo systems, in particular, on the civilian infrastructure of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia There are dead and wounded civilians, civil infrastructure objects have been damaged.
• The probability of strikes throughout the territory of Ukraine remains high.
• During the day, the enemy shelled the areas of Hrinivka, Klyusy, Oleksandrivka and Kamianska Sloboda settlements of Chernihiv region; Sopych, Kharkivka, Starykove, Volfyne and Stepok in Sumy Oblast and Chervona Zorya, Strelecha, Hlyboke, Krasne, Staritsa, Vovchansk, Kolodyazne, Kamianka, Novomlynsk, Krasne Pershe, Dvorichna, Zapadne and Kindrashivka in Kharkiv
• On the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions, the enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of the settlements of Novoselivske, Kreminna and Bilogorivka. He carried out artillery shelling of the areas of the settlements of Vesele, Kup’yansk, Krokhmalne, Pishchane and Berestov in the Kharkiv region and Novoselivske, Nevske, Bilogorivka, Siversk and Spirne in the Luhansk
• In the Bakhmut direction, our defenders repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Bohdanivka and Hryhorivka settlements. In particular, Vasyukivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bakhmut, Hryhorivka, Ivanivske, Kostyantynivka, Mayorsk, Zalizne and New York of the Donetsk region came under enemy fire.
• On the Avdiyivka, Marynsk, and Shakhtarsk directions, the enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the districts of Kamianka, Avdiyvka, Severny, Vodyany, Berdychiv, and Marynka. Kamianka, Avdiivka, Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenka, Severne, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Pobyeda, Novomykhailivka, Krasnohorivka, Georgiivka, Maryinka, Vugledar, Velyka Novosilka and Neskuchne came under enemy fire.
• The enemy is defending in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Areas of 27 settlements were shelled. Among them: Olhivske, Charivne, Novodanilivka and Orihiv of the Zaporizhzhia region, as well as Tamarine, Odradokamyanka, Tyaginka, Novotyaginka, Ponyativka, Sadove, Rozlyv and the city of Kherson.

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Above:  The Kharkiv Oblast Administration reported that 90% of winter crops are in satisfactory condition. 

• Russian forces are attempting to advance along the entire eastern front. Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on March 18. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Dibrova (6km southwest of Kreminna) and Hryhorivka (9km south of Kreminna).

Above: Hauling ammo deliveries. The daily logistics of supplying crude artillery shells and mortars to the front lines consumes great resources on both sides. The EU is working on plans to provide Ukraine with 1 million rounds over the next year. An article in Time estimates that Ukraine uses up to 200,000 rounds per month while the invader uses up to 60,000 per day. 

Above: The Kremlin’s little war monger and fugitive from justice visited Crimea then Mariupol (at night) over the weekend. Ukraine’s railway company jokingly invited Putin to ride from Mariupol to the Hague in one of its carriages. (Business Ukraine mag)

• Russian forces conducted 25 attacks in the Bakhmut area on March 19, but likely secured only small gains.Geolocated footage published on March 19 indicates that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful counterattack southwest of Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut) and pushed Russian forces further away from the T0504 highway.
• Statements made by Ukrainian military officials on the pace and prospects of current Russian offensive operations suggest that the Russian “spring offensive” may be nearing culmination. Russia was unable to gather sufficient forces for a major offensive in Donbas.
• Russian forces are struggling to secure operationally significant advances in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City and Vuhledar areas. Russian forces have been desperately attacking Avdiivka to restart offensive operations on Vuhledar, perhaps meant to pull Ukrainian reserves away from western Donetsk to the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.
• Massive Russian losses in the Vuhledar area are severely degrading Russian offensive capacity. The enemy MoD is forming an ad hoc “storm” formation for deployment presumably Vuhledar on March 24, further confirming a highly degraded state of enemy forces.

Above: War Mapper’s approximate situation around the city of Bakhmut.

Above:  Map via ISW

Above: Somebody blew up the vehicle of a well-known collaborator in Kherson Oblast. The poor fellow ran a “security” company in pre-war Kherson, then helped the invaders set up a detention torture center in Nova Kakhovka.   No word yet if anyone is mourning his loss. (Nova Kakhovka City)

• In the Kherson region, the Russian occupiers threaten peaceful citizens with punitive actions for not having a Russian passport. At checkpoints in the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson region, the occupiers threaten the local population with illegal deprivation of liberty and violent actions in the absence of Russian passports.

HIMARS sending gifts to the Occupiers.#UkraineWar #Ukrainian #UkrainianArmy #Ukraine️️ #RussiaIsATerroristState #RussiaIsCollapsing #UkraineWillWin #Russia #RussiaIsLosing pic.twitter.com/rieMNj3Pzp

— Intermarium 24 (@intermarium24) March 18, 2023