Victory Chronicles
-DAY 401

Above: Moscow patriarch worshippers gathered on the steps of a Pecherska-Lavra monastery building to prevent a Ukrainian Ministry of Culture team from entering. Ordered to vacate by March 29, the Muscovy monks are refusing to leave. The Moscow-sponsored church has used partitioners as human shields repeatedly over the last thirty years to occupy property it wants to claim.  In past years, the Ukrainian government has been reluctant to enforce the law against the Russian church. This time, the Ukrainian government has signaled that it will take the case to the courts to force the Kremlin-controlled organization to leave. (Radio Svoboda)

Above: A military operations command center in eastern Ukraine directs Bakhmut operations with high-tech equipment and real-time intelligence.  Ukraine’s command is confident that the enemy assault on Bakhmut is culminating and that the threat of encirclement is thwarted. (New York Times)

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

• Forty-five members of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe have evoked the Moscow Mechanism, requesting the OSCE to establish an expert mission to examine Russia’s abduction and deportation of Ukrainian children.
• Russia is scheduled to hold the presidency of the UN’s security council on April 1.  Ukraine’s foreign minister called it the worst April Fools joke ever.  “The country that systematically violated all fundamental rules of international security is presiding over a body whose only mission is to safeguard and protect international security.”
• On Thursday, Turkiye was the last country to approve Finnish accession to NATO. Formal membership now has been called a matter of paperwork.  A retired four-star US general said that Finland’s membership is “a huge plus for NATO. Geographically, their addition to the alliance adds a huge, difficult-to-defend border that complicates Putin’s calculus.”
• Putin signed a decree on March 30 authorizing Russia’s semiannual spring conscription which aims to draft 147,000 male citizens between April 1 and July 15. Russia conducts two draft cycles per year with the spring conscription cycle usually conscripting 134,000 Russian men. However, ISW assesses that Putin remains unlikely to deploy new draftees to the Ukraine war.
• Russian security services arrested Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich in Yekaterinburg, Sverdlovsk, Russia, on charges of espionage on March 30. Russian authorities may have arrested Gershkovich as a retaliatory response to the US arrest of Russian national Sergey Vladimirovich Cherkasov on March 24 on charges of acting as an agent of a foreign power.The Kremlin will likely use Gershkovich’s detention to attempt to extract some type of concession from the United States.
• The site of Gershkovich’s arrest is noteworthy. Yekaterinburg hosts 12 Russian defense enterprises that specifically produce anti-aircraft rocket systems, long-range anti-aircraft missiles, radio systems, ground support equipment for missiles and aircraft, electronic control systems for missile complexes, missile-related guidance systems and radars, self-propelled artillery systems, highly enriched uranium, rare earth metal alloys, heavy machinery, and optical systems for military aircraft.
• Russia’s crime rate will likely increase further as thousands of pardoned Wagner-recruited convicts complete their contracts and return to Russian society. In response to reports of a newly returned convict’s arrest for murder, Wagner’s leader said that  Russians should notify Wagner if pardoned convicts act aggressively and Wagner would return them to the frontlines.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: Kharkiv Today

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 173,360 (+460)
• Tanks, 3,615 (+5)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,977 (+3)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,675/526 (+4/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 278 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 306/291 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 2,248 (+9)
• Cruise missiles, 911 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,521 (+3)
• Special equipment, 294 (+3)

Above: Kharkiv was hit with S-300 missiles launched from Belgorod, Russia, and Iranian drones last night. The General Staff reported, “The enemy continues to ignore the laws and customs of war, uses terror tactics against peaceful citizens of our country. At night, using the S-300 missile system, the enemy launched 9 rockets at the civilian infrastructure of the city of Kharkiv. 10 Shahed-136 attack UAVs were used to carry out the airstrikes, 9 of them were destroyed by our defenders.” (Radio Svoboda)

Glory to Ukraine!
The 401st day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• Over the past 24 hours, the enemy launched 11x missile and 4x air strikes, and conducted 43x MLRS attacks.
• Russia continues to ignore laws and customs of war, uses terror tactics against ordinary Ukrainian citizens. At night, using the S-300 air defense system, the enemy launched 9x rockets at the civilian infrastructure of the city of Kharkiv. Moreover, russia launched 10x “Shakhed-136” loitering munitions, 9x of them were intercepted by our defenders.
• The threat of further missile and air strikes remains high across Ukraine.
• Kup’yans’k, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mar’yinka axes: the enemy concentrates main efforts on further offensive actions. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled more than 80x enemy attacks. Bilohorivka, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Mar’yinka are at the midst of the hostilities.
• During the past day, the enemy shelled Hirs’k (Chernihiv oblast); Novovasylivka, Nova Huta, Stukalyvka, Iskryskivshchyna, Volfyne, and Katerynivka (Sumy oblast); as well as more than 15x settlements in Kharkiv oblast, including, Kozacha Lopan, Strilecha, Oliynikove, Neskuchne, Vilcha, Krasne Pershe, and Topolia.
• Kup’yans’k and Lyman axes: the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the vicinities of Stelmakhivka, Kuzmyne, and Berestove.
• Dvorichans’ke, Zapadne, Dvorichna, Masyutivka, Synkivka, Kup’yans’k, and Krokhmalne (Kharkiv oblast); Novoselivs’ke, Nevs’ke, and Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast); as well as Rozdolivka, Kolodyazi, Tors’ke, Sivers’k, and Spirne (Donetsk oblast) were subjects to heavy shelling.
• Bakhmut axis: the enemy makes further attempts to seize the town of Bakhmut. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 22x attacks. At the same time, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the vicinities of Orihovo-Vasylivka (Donetsk oblast). Moreover, the occupiers shelled Minkivka, Orihovo-Vasylivka, Druzhkivka, and Bakhmut (Donetsk oblast).
• Avdiivka and Mar’yinka axes: the enemy attempted to advance towards Novobakhmutivka, Novokalynove, Stepove, Avdiivka, Severne, Vodyane, Krasnohorivka, and Mar’yynka (Donetsk oblast). All attacks have failed.
• The occupiers shelled Novokalynove, Keramik, Novoselivka Persha, Berdychi, Avdiivka, Nevels’ke, Krasnohorivka, Mar’yinka, Heorgiivka, Kurakhove, Ostrivs’ke, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast).
• Shakhtars’ke axis: the enemy shelled Vuhledar, Prechistivka, Zolota Nyva, Shakhtars’ke and Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk oblast) during the day.
• Zaporizhzhia and Kherson axes: the occupiers attacked more than
• 30x settlements, including, Novosilka and Novopil’ (Donetsk oblast); Olhivske, Charivne, Biloghirya, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanilivka, Novoandriivka, and Shcherbaky (Zaporizhzhia oblast); and Novooleksandrivka, Kozats’ke, Ivanivka, Inzhenerne, Yantarne, and Kizomys (Kherson oblast).

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Above:  For the second year, Kharkiv residents are banned from visiting cemeteries during Easter holidays due to mining during enemy occupation and the danger of enemy shelling. (Kharkiv Today)

• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks north of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line on March 30. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Berestove (24km northwest of Svatove), Stelmakhivka (12km northwest of Svatove), Kuzmyne (3km southwest of Kreminna), and Vyimka (27km southwest of Kreminna).
• Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty said that Russian forces in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction have started to operate in more doctrinally sound formations using “classic tactics” and, therefore, are not suffering losses as high as those they suffer in other directions.

Above: The mayor of Avdiivka, Donetsk, said that there is not one building left in the town that has not been damaged by Russia World. Eighty percent of housing stock is beyond repair including  149 multistory buildings and about four thousand private houses. . (Ukrainska Pravda)

• Interfax spoke with the head of the Avdiivka City Administration Vitaly Barabash, who said that two thousand Avdiivka locals refuse to evacuate despite the extreme threat of enemy shelling. Mr Barabash admitted that a good number of the holdouts are waiting to welcome Russian occupation. The administration knows of six children “who remained in the city and whose parents are hiding them from the authorities, volunteers and police.”  In accordance with Ukrainian law, next week Avdiivka will act to evacuate the children with at least one guardian. “We did not want it to come to this, but if irresponsible parents expose their children to mortal danger, then there is nothing to talk about.”
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut on March 30. Geolocated footage published on March 29 indicates that Wagner Group fighters made marginal gains in southern Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces stabilized their flanks to the north and south of Bakhmut and that Russian forces are now focusing on fighting through the city itself because the buildings and urban environment protect them from Ukrainian fire.
• Ukrainian Colonel Yevhen Mezhevikin stated on March 30 that Russian assaults in the Bakhmut area have slowed and that Ukrainian forces have thwarted an imminent threat of encirclement. He said that Russian forces previously were able to launch simultaneous assaults in all directions in the Bakhmut area but that those capabilities are now declining.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front on March 30. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Avdiivka itself; within 14km north of Avdiivka near Novobakhmutivka, Novokalynove, and Stepove; and within 27km southwest of Avdiivka near Sieverne, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, and Marinka.

Above: The Department of Highways for Odesa Oblast is carrying out road improvements to cope with high levels of automobile traffic between Odesa city and the Danube Delta area which borders on Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. (Odesa Life)

• International Atomic Energy Agency Director Grossi stated that the plan to ensure the nuclear safety of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant had changed from the proposal to establish a non-conflict zone to encouraging the Kremlin not to attack the plant.  Grossi discussed the challenges of maintaining safety under drastically reduced numbers of personnel. Ukraine’s Energoatom reported on October 28, 2022, that of 6,700 ZNPP workers who remained after occupation to operate ZNPP, 4300 have since left Russian-occupied territory. Moscow plans to increase the number of employees at the ZNPP to 4,500 by the end of April.
• Geolocated footage published on March 29 shows explosions at a Russian airbase in Hvardiiske, Crimea. Satellite imagery from early March shows a Russian aircraft sitting at the airbase in the general area of the explosions.