Victory Chronicles
-DAY 406

Above: Children deported to Russia are returned to their families in Ukraine in March 2022. The UN Human Rights Council on Tuesday adopted a resolution condemning Russia’s deportation of children from temporarily occupied territories, demanding that Russia provide access to and information about Ukrainian children and other civilians forcibly transferred to territory under its control.Of 47 voting members, 28 supported the resolution, 17 abstained while China and Eritrea voted against. (The National News)

Above:  Poland is probably Ukraine’s closest ally in terms of experience with a very bad neighbor for centuries.  Poland has accepted over a million Ukrainian refugees, turned its country into a massive logistics hub between the whole world and Ukraine and spearheaded major initiatives to break Western taboos on heavier weapons like tanks and aircraft. President Zelensky is in Warsaw today for the first time since the war started. (Photo: Interfax)

Above: The Kiel Institute for the World Economy updated its Ukrainian Support Tracker.  Overall, it found new commitments in 2023 to be trending smaller with exceptions including Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland who have increased support.

Above: Former russo-soviet satellite countries are the leaders in terms of support to Ukraine as a percentage of GDP.  (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

• The UK pushed back on the farcical Russian UN Security Council presidency by blocking the broadcast of a meeting called by the aggressor nation to propagandize its program of abducting Ukrainian children. The UK said it would not attend a presentation by Russia’s criminal refugee and so-called childrens’ rights advocate. “She should not be afforded a U.N. platform to spread disinformation. If she wants to give an account of her actions, she can do so in The Hague.”
• The US announced on Tuesday the 35th drawdown from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.  The next military aid package is for $2.6 billion, much of which will be used to meet immediate needs related to preparations for the upcoming spring offensive.
• During a working meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Commision in Brussels on Tuesday, Ukraine asked for NATO to lay out a transparent road map for joining the organization. Currently, Ukraine’s accession is not on the agenda for a summit scheduled for July.  Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba. “In short, my message was that Vilnius 2023 is a chance to correct the mistakes of Bucharest  2008.”   In 2008, NATO member countries avoided any consideration of Ukraine as a member over fears of antagonizing Moscow.
• On Tuesday, the Khmelnytsky Oblast council voted unanimously to ban the Moscow patriarch orthodox church from its territory. The oblast bill now goes to Kyiv for consideration by the national parliament. In addition, the council canceled all property use agreements with the Moscow church. This action followed the emergence of video showing fighting Moscow monks assaulting a war veteran on April 2.
• Ukraine’s minister of reintegration urged all residents in temporarily occupied territories to follow the example of occupation authorities and leave as soon as possible ahead of the planned counteroffensive. Residents who stay behind in conflict areas risk not only their own safety, but that of their children, the armed forces and volunteers who work to protect and sustain them.
• The Kremlin has ramped up the propaganda campaign to convince Russians that the economy is fine.  Putin has spoken recently on Russian economic independence from the world, the great opportunity of sanctions to develop products domestically and the need for federal financing including reserves to help the regions build industry  Russian finance minister reassured the public on April 3 that there are no problems financing budget shortfalls caused by falling oil and gas revenues with reserves. ISW assesses that a growing Russian overreliance on funding through reserves could lead to further economic instability.
• Russian defense minister stressed that ongoing spring conscription is going according to plan. He claimed that over 700 thousand Russian men have already registered at enlistment offices. ISW assesses that the spring draft is extremely unlikely to increase combat power in the short term due systemic shortcomings and Putin’s fear that the public might not love sending young draftees to the war.
• Formerly Russia’s richest man, now in exile, Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s investigative Dossier center published a long interview with a defected security services captain who worked in the division that provides the Kremlin with intelligence. The former intelligence officer fled Russia with his family in the context of a business trip to Kazakhstan in October. He is no longer in touch with his parents because they are “TV watchers” who accused him of being a foreign agent when he tried to convince them that the war was wrong.

The Cathedral in #Khmelnitsky will get under the control of the Orthodox Church of #Ukraine.

Citizens voted for it right at the cathedral. pic.twitter.com/1Y6eFhj2kG

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) April 2, 2023

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: Alarabiya News

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 176,240 (+550)
• Tanks, 3,629 (+2)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 7,005 (+6)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,707/532 (+10/4)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 280 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 306/291 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 2,283 (+6)
• Cruise missiles, 911 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,573 (+11)
• Special equipment, 299 (+1)

Above: Horlivka, Donetsk.  (Kyiv Post)

Glory to Ukraine!
The 405th day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• During the past day, the enemy launched 3 missile and 47 air strikes, in particular, used 17 unmanned aerial vehicles of the Shahed-136 type. 14 of them were destroyed by our defenders. Also, the enemy launched 42 attacks from rocket salvo systems. There are dead and wounded among the civilian population.
• The probability of launching missile and air strikes throughout the territory of Ukraine remains high, because the enemy will continue to use terror tactics.
• The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiiv and Marin directions – more than 60 enemy attacks were repulsed during the day. Bakhmut and Maryinka remain at the epicenter of hostilities.
• During the day, the enemy shelled the settlements of Leonivka, Chernihiv region; Seredyna-Buda, Bachivsk, Volfyne, Zapsilya, and Myropyllya in the Sumy region, as well as Veterinarne, Strelecha, Pishchane, Ohirtseve, Vovchansk, Rublene, Dvorichanske, and Topoli in the Kharkiv
• On the Kupyansk direction, Masyutivka, Kupyansk, Kamianka and Pershotravneve in the Kharkiv region and Novoselivske and Krokhmalne in the Luhansk region came under enemy fire.
• In the Lymanskyi direction, during the day, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas south of Kreminnaya and south of Spirnyi. More than 20 settlements, including Stelmakhivka, Torske, Siversk, Rozdolivka, and Spirne of the Donetsk region, were hit by artillery fire.
• In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy is trying to take full control of the city of Bakhmut, and continues to storm it. Also, the occupiers carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the Bohdanivka region of Donetsk region. During the day, units of the defense forces repelled about 30 enemy attacks on the indicated section of the front. More than 15 settlements, including Vasyukivka, Minkivka, Orihovo-Vasylivka, Novomarkovo, Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka, Ivanovske, Severnye and Shumy of Donetsk region, were affected by enemy shelling.
• in the districts of Novokalynove, Severna, Pervomaiske and Maryinka of the Donetsk region, the enemy shelled the settlements of Novobakhmutivka, Novokalynove, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, Georgiivka, and Maryinka.
• The enemy shelled the settlements of Pobyeda, Novomykhailivka, Vugledar, Prechistivka, and Velika Novosilka of the Donetsk
• The enemy continues to build up its defensive capabilities in the Zaporizhia and Kherson directions. Fired more than 30 settlements. Among them are Novodanilivka, Orihiv, Shcherbaki, Mali Shcherbaki of the Zaporizhzhia region; Kachkarivka, Zmiivka, Kozatske, Mykolaivka, Ivanivka, Dniprovske of the Kherson region, as well as the city of Kherson.

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Above: Lithuanian Minister of Defense Arvydas Anushauskas (second from left) visited Kharkiv yesterday with his Ukrainian counterpart Oleksii Reznikov (center). They discussed the defense capability and security of the region with Kharkiv Governor Oleh Synyehubov (right foreground).  Mr Anushauskas stated that military aid to Ukraine should be provided on a permanent basis as long as necessary. He was the first foreign defense minister to visit Ukraine in March last year.  This is his fourth trip. (Kharkiv Oblast Administration)

• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line on April 4.  Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Kreminna, Nevske (20km northwest of Kreminna), Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna), and Serebrianska forest area (10km south of Kreminna). Geolocated footage published on April 4 indicated a limited Ukrainian advance northeast of Verkhnokamianske (18km south of Kreminna).
• Russian conventional and mobilized forces operating in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction are using more armored vehicles and act more cautiously in ground battles than Russian personnel in other sectors of the frontline. Russian forces may be attempting to conserve forces in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction ahead of an anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Above: On April 4, in Kramatorsk, Donetsk, the dam on a water reservoir broke, flooding the near-by neighborhood.  State Emergency Service workers were on hand to help people evacuate. (Suspilne)

• Legal mandatory evacuation of children who live in combat zones will be enforced by law enforcement agencies in 21 population areas in Donetsk Oblast.  Special White Angel evacuation units plan to evacuate 126 children as soon as possible. “”Evacuated children accompanied by one of their parents or a legal representative will be provided with free shelter, social guarantees, humanitarian aid and psychological support.”
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut on April 4. Geolocated footage published on April 3 indicates that Russian forces likely advanced in southern Bakhmut closer to the Avangard stadium.
• Russian conventional forces continue to reinforce Wagner in the Bakhmut because of Wagner’s extensive losses, likely in an effort to maintain Russian forces’ current tempo of offensive operations in and around the city.

A timelapse of the Russian advances inside Bakhmut over the past month. pic.twitter.com/4OYBYcl99N

— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) April 5, 2023

I reported yesterday that Russians got pushed back and behind the Korsunskogo Street in Bakhmut and here we have visual evidence, and what evidence indeed.

An Ukrainian UR-77 fired right into Russian positions and triggered the charge which pulverized them.

It has to be noted… https://t.co/PLyYLHVKDX pic.twitter.com/iEBhjU1qwc

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) April 4, 2023

Above: Approximate situation around Avdiivka by War Mapper. 

• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline on April 4. Geolocated footage published on April 4 indicates that Russian forces made marginal gains west of Novobakhmutivka (13km northwest of Avdiivka). Russian forces conducted unsuccessful assaults near Avdiivka itself, within 13km north of Avdiivka near Novokalynove and Krasnohorivka, and within 27km southwest of Avdiivka near Sieverne, Pervomaiske, and Marinka.
• Ukrainian forces likely conducted a counterattack northeast of Avdiivka. Geolocated footage published on April 2 indicates that Ukrainian forces likely recaptured positions northwest of Novoselivka (17km northeast of Avdiivka) and advanced close to the settlement.

Above:  Lviv’s Mayor Sadovy (center) visited Kherson yesterday.  He met with his Kherson counterpart, the oblast governor and military personnel including Lviv’s own 63rd Mechanized Brigade. Mr Sadovy pledged that the cities would work together to return living standards to Kherson’s indestructible population. (Kavun City)

• Russian forces continue to prepare for an anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive in the southern direction. Russian forces moved heavy equipment, infantry fighting vehicles, and ammunition from the rear in Mariupol, Donetsk, in the direction of Rozivka, Zaporizhia Oblast (45km northwest of Mariupol).
• The occupiers of Zaporizhzhia have banned farmers without occupation passports from working in the fields. Due to the population’s strong resistance to receiving enemy passports, the occupation administration is curtailing the rights and liberty of residents to force them into compliance. All farmers now have to get permission from the occupiers to work in the fields which requires Russian citizenship.