DAY 408

Victory Chronicles
-DAY 408

April 7,2023


Above: Training operations in southern Ukraine. The success of the upcoming spring counteroffensive will depend not only on war materiel, but on numbers of troops trained and ready for the fight. Ukrainian armed forces are training thousands of new personnel, but the enemy has a huge advantage over Ukraine in terms of raw numbers of military-age population.  (Photo: National Review)

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

  • The process of turning Belarus into a vassal Russian state Lukashenka and Russian Putin met in Moscow on April 5 and 6 to discuss further tightening of the “Union State” – a euphemism for Minsk under Moscow’s control.  they are working on a joint taxation system,  business operation standards, trade legislation and the creation of a unified oil, gas and electricity market. A Kremlin spokesperson said they did not discuss the placement of strategic nukes on Belarusian territory.
  • The Russian MoD is creating new “Storm Z” units from newly-recruited reservists outside of conventional military structures. “Storm Z” companies are intended to capture important and strategic objects such as strongholds, command posts, and communication centers. A Ukrainian official noted that these reservists get up to two weeks of “refresher training” before deployment, likely to the Avdiivka-Donetsk city line in order to push tactical advances.  ISW assesses that this is more “ramshackle construction of yet more ad hoc Russian units” on top of “already degraded quality and poor morale that is pervasive within DNR units in this area”.
  • Now that Moscow’s spring military draft is underway, Russian military forces are competing with its industrial sector for extremely limited manpower in all sectors. Russia’s private defense sector, contract armed forces, private military companies, BARS units and conscription authorities are all trying to recruit from the same shrinking labor pool. At least one regional official is trying to get concessions to give workers at defense factories the status of military service.
  • The Kremlin released a draft of a revised foreign policy concept which now includes the defense of the Moscow Patriarch-controlled church interests abroad.  One expert pointed out that this is the second time that Putin has put religion in foreign policy.  The first was in 2008 when he ordered the Moscow Patriarchy to engulf all Russian orthodox churches abroad.  Euromaidan Press published an interview with an expert on the history of orthodoxy in Russia and Ukraine which explains what is happening today.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles


Above: Near Vodyane, Donetsk. (Warspotting)

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

  • Liquidated personnel, 177,110 (+480)
  • Tanks, 3,633 (+2)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 7,016 (+3)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,722/533 (+8/1)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 281 (0)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 306/292 (0)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 2,291 (+4)
  • Cruise missiles, 911 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 18 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,587 (+13)
  • Special equipment, 304 (+2)


Above: Enemy shelling of houses in Slovyansk, Donetsk, overnight. (Suspilne)

Glory to Ukraine!
The 408th day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

  • During the past day, the enemy launched 5 missile and 18 air strikes, fired 53 rocket salvo fire systems at the positions of our troops and the civilian infrastructure of populated areas.
  • The probability of launching missile and air strikes remains high throughout the territory of Ukraine.
  • The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marin directions – more than 40 enemy attacks were repulsed in the past day.
  • During the past day, the enemy shelled the settlements of Leonivka, Gremyach, Novovasylivka of the Chernihiv region; Progress, Zarutske, Rivne, Volfyne, as well as Veterinarne, Neskuchne, Ohirtseve, Tyche, Zybine, Bochkove, Budarky, Vilkhuvatka, Chugunivka, Zarubinka, Bologhivka, Staritsa, Kolodyazne settlements in Kharkiv region, Topoli, Figolivka, Novomlynsk, Dvorichna, Zapadne, Lyman First, Krokhmalne, Berestov in the Kharkiv region and Novoselivske in the Luhansk region came under enemy fire in the Kupyansk
  • In the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensives in the areas of Kreminna and Spirne settlements last day. Nevske, Dibrova, Belogorivka of Luhansk region and Terna, Spirne and Rozdolivka – Donetsk region were subjected to artillery shelling.
  • In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy continues to conduct offensive actions, tries to take full control of the city of Bakhmut, fierce battles continue. During the past day, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of the settlements of Orihovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka and Bila Gora. Units of the defense forces repelled 16 enemy attacks on this part of the front. Vasyukivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Novomarkove, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, Novodmytrivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Diliivka and Shumy of the Donetsk region suffered from enemy shelling.
  • The enemy carried out offensive actions in the Avdiivka and Marinska In the districts of Novokalynove, Severna, Pervomaiske and Maryinka of the Donetsk region, he was not successful. The fiercest battles on the indicated section of the front continued for Maryinka, where 19 enemy attacks were repulsed. At the same time, Novokalynove, Avdiivka, Netaylove, Pervomaiske, Maryinka and Pobyeda came under enemy fire.
  • During the day, the enemy shelled the settlements of Vugledar, Prechistivka and Velika Novosilka of the Donetsk
  • In the Zaporizhzhya and Kherson directions, the enemy continues to build up defensive lines and positions in terms of fortification. Fired more than 20 settlements. Among them are Vremivka of Donetsk region; Gulyaipole, Zaliznychne, Gulyaipilske, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanilivka, Novoandriivka and Kamianske of the Zaporizhzhia region, as well as Antonivka and Kherson.

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!


Above: Thirteen children were among those evacuated from Kupyansk, Kharkiv, this week.  Rivne has prepared space in a health resort where they will live and be able to receive medical and psychological help. (Suspilne)

  • Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on April 6. Geolocated footage published on April 2 indicates that Russian forces likely made marginal gains northwest of Kuzemivka (15km northwest of Svatove). Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna), Hryhorivka (11km south of Kreminna), and Spirne (25km south of Kreminna).


Above: A teenager evacuated from Bakhmut to Kostiantynivka.  Government and military representatives are begging civilians to evacuate from conflict zones.  (New York Times)

  • Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut on April 6. Geolocated footage posted on April 6 shows that Russian forces made a marginal advance in central Bakhmut north of the T0504 highway. Geolocated footage posted on April 6 shows that Ukrainian forces repelled Wagner Group ground attacks south of Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut). Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks in Bakhmut and northwest of Bakhmut near Bohdanivka (6km northwest) and Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest), and west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske.
  • Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City frontline on April 6. Russian forces sustained 4,000 losses near Avdiivka in the past week and are sending reinforcemsnt that have been training in Belarus to reinforce the Avdiivka-Marinka line. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Avdiivka, Novokalynove (7km north of Avdiivka), Sieverne (5km west of Avdiivka), Pervomaiske (10km southwest of Avdiivka), and Marinka.
  • Russian forces do not suffer artillery ammunition shortages in areas where Russian forces prioritize offensive operations, such as in the Bakhmut direction. Wagner Group forces still suffer from artillery shell shortages, however. Russian forces on the Avdiivka-Marinka line experience shell shortages closer to the weekend, suggesting that these forces burn through their allocated artillery shells too quickly and are resupplied at least partially on a weekly basis.


Above:  Mariupol Drama Theater under Russian occupation, one year after the invader bombed the clearly-marked theater as a civilian shelter housing children. (War Evidence

  • Russian forces may be redeploying equipment from occupied Crimea elsewhere in southern Ukraine out of fear of a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Satellite imagery shows the withdrawal of a significant amount of armored fighting vehicles, tanks and towed artillery systems from a depot in Medvedivka (20km northeast of Dzhankoy along the M18 highway) between March 17 and April 5.
  • Ukrainian Mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov reported the sound of explosions in the Melitopol area on Wednesday and noted that Russian forces sent ambulances to the Aviamistechka airfield despite Russian claims that their air defense is 100% successful. On April 6, Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions on the east bank of Kherson Oblast reduced the number of artillery positions from which Russian forces can strike the west (right) bank of Kherson Oblast.
  • In the Dzhankoy district of the temporarily occupied Crimea, the Russian invaders use the local population to construct fortifications. It is known that men are mainly drug addicts and people with alcohol addiction. The occupiers promise the workers payment that is often not delivered. There have been recorded cases when deceived people refuse to cooperate further, after which armed occupiers force them to dig trenches.

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