DAY 412

Victory Chronicles
-DAY 412

April 11,2023


Above:  Ukraine is on a Pushkin purge.  At least 34 monuments to the Russian poet installed during Russia imperial and russo-soviet eras have been taken down in the last year. From Mukachevo, Zakarpattia, to Kramatorsk, Donetsk, the Ukrainian Institute of National Memory tracks “de-russification” actions that include removal of an insane amount of Russian place names, statues and monuments clogging the highways and parkways of Ukraine.  

Ukraine’s Ministry of Culture has recorded almost 10,000 instances in 2022 when local and regional authorities replaced place names and removed 145 monuments “related to Russian imperial propaganda”.  Last June, the ministry established a council to coordinate the de-russification, de-communization and de-colonization of Ukrainian territory.  The ministry asks local governments to work with their citizens to make decisions on renaming and removals. 

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

  • The question is, who benefits from the leaked intel? The fallout from a trove of allegedly secret US intelligence documents leaked online over the last few weeks is still settling.  While the US says it will investigate, social media is full of theories about sources and who benefits.  Top disclosures include claims that Ukraine is running low on ammo for Soviet-era S-300 air defense systems which could hurt its air defense capabilities, a claim disputed by at least one respected war watcher.. Another document from February outlines Egyptian secret intentions to supply Russia with 40,000 rockets, a quite bazaar revelation given Egypt’s huge dependency on the US military and humanitarian aid.  After Israel, Egypt is the US’s second biggest recipient of foreign assistance at over $1 billion per year.
  • The pro-war blogosphere that Moscow tries hard to appease is not happy about the arbitrary application of the Kremlin’s speech suppression law on “discrediting the military”. A top DNR hero and doctor was arrested for allegedly disparaging Russian field medicine capabilities during a training session on field medicine. ISW assesses that Moscow’s suppression of constructive criticism will ensure that it keeps making the same mistakes.
  • A Russian telegram channel detailed the practice of military personnel and companies engaging in petty arms trading in enemy controlled territory around Ukraine.  The blogger gave several examples of sellers selling their guns to locals.  This is quite reminiscent of the well-known soviet army practice of soldiers selling weapons, equipment, even their uniforms, for some quick cash.
  • Ukraine announced the intention to form an international coalition that will work to return deported Ukrainian children to their homeland.  Deputy PM Iryna Vershchuk said that there is already interest from international leaders in participation and that the coalition will be looking to designate a neutral intermediary such as the Red Cross or a UN agency.
  • Meanwhile, Ukrainian security services exposed the owner of a Crimean travel agency for helping to deport more than 1000 Ukrainian children from occupied areas in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts to Crimea. The enemy has been collecting children in Sevastopol for the last year, taken from orphanages and from parents who were arrested on various charges.  LNR head Leonid Pasechnik claimed on April 9 that occupation authorities have conducted so-called “medical evaluations” on more than 94,000 Ukrainian children in occupied Luhansk Oblast, thousands of whom Russian occupation officials have since deported to Russia for “medical treatment”.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles


Above: HIMARS hit an enemy warehouse near Marinka. (Rob Lee)

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

  • Liquidated personnel, 179,320 (+500)
  • Tanks, 3,644 (+7)
  • Armored personnel vehicles, 7,038 (+10)
  • Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,765/535 (+15/1)
  • Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 282 (0)
  • Aircraft/helicopters, 307/293 (+0/1)
  • UAV operational-tactical level, 2,332 (+9)
  • Cruise missiles, 911 (0)
  • Warships/boats, 18 (0)
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,620 (+13)
  • Special equipment, 316 (+5)


Above: Associated Press

Glory to Ukraine!
The 412th day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

  • Over the past day, the enemy launched 39x air strikes and 7x missile strikes, 4x of which were from the S-300 air defense system, against the peaceful city of Kramatorsk. They carried out 47x rounds from MLRS on the positions of our troops and the civilian infrastructure of populated areas.
  • The russian federation continues to disregard the laws and customs of war, so the probability of launching missile and air strikes remains high throughout the territory of Ukraine.
  • During the past day, the enemy shelled the settlements of Gremyach and Kamianska Sloboda of Chernihiv Oblast; Katerynivka, Volfine, Andriivka, and Popivka in the Sumy Oblast, as well as Veterinarne, Strelecha, Staritsa, Gatishche, Vovchanski Khutory, Okhrimivka, Mala Vovcha, and Vilkhuvatka in the Kharkiv
  • Kupyansk axis: the settlements of Kam’ianka, Kolodyazne, Krasne Pershe, Novomlynsk, Dvorichna, Vilshana, Kindrashivka, Kislivka and Berestov of the Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy fire.
  • Lyman axis: during the past day, the adversary conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near the settlements of Makiivka, Chervonopivka, and Bilogorivka. Novoyehorivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Belogorivka in the Luhansk Oblast, as well as Torske, Spirne and Berestov in the Donetsk Oblast were hit by artillery fire.
  • Bakhmut axis: the enemy continues to conduct offensive actions, tries to take full control of the city of Bakhmut, fighting continues. During the past day, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near the settlements of Hryhorivka and Khromov. Vasyukivka, Zaliznyanske, Minkivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bakhmut, Khromov, Ivanovske, Predtechine, Chasiv Yar, Ozaryanivka, Druzhba and New York of the Donetsk Oblast were affected by enemy shelling.
  • Avdiivka and Mar’yinka axes: the adversary carried out offensive actions in the areas of Avdiivka, Severna, Nevelske and Mar’yinka settlements of the Donetsk Oblast, was unsuccessful. The fiercest battles continue for Avdiivka and Mar’yinka. At the same time, the settlements of Novokalynove, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, Gostre, Georgiivka, Mar’yinka and Pobyeda of the Donetsk Oblast were subjected to enemy shelling.
  • During the past day, the enemy shelled the settlements of Novomykhailivka, Vugledar, Bogoyavlenka and Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk
  • Zaporizhzhia and Kherson axes: the enemy continues the defence. During the past day, they shelled settlements near the frontline. Among them are Vremivka of Donetsk Oblast; Novodanilivka, Orykhiv, Novoandriivka and Kam’ianske of the Zaporizhzhia

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!


Above: A notice posted on the main entrance of the Kharkiv Municipal Cemetery declares that entrance during Easter holidays is forbidden. The enemy invader is targeting cemeteries, especially when crowds gather on holidays. (Redpost)

  • Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line on April 9 and 10. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions northwest of Kreminna near Makiivka and Chervonopopivka (within 21km northwest of Kreminna), and south of Kreminna near Kuzmyne, Dibrova, Bilohorivka, and Verkhnokamianske (all within 3 to 18km south of Kreminna).
  • Various invader media posts and video footage claim that those ticktocking Kadyrovites, LPR elements, enemy BARS reserve battalion and airborne units are fighting near Kreminna and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna).


Above: Working to evacuate Avdiivka.  White Angels – a special division of the national police – work to evacuate civilians from combat zones at great risk to their personal safety.  The Donetsk governor said 1800 civilians remain “in the ruins of Avdiivka”, risking their lives every day. (Aljazeera)

  • Russian forces continued to make territorial gains in and around Bakhmut on April 9 and 10 but likely continue to suffer significant casualties. Geolocated footage posted on April 9 and 10 shows that Russian forces made marginal advances northwest of Khromove (2km west of Bakhmut), in southwest Bakhmut, and north of Sacco i Vanzetti (15km north of Bakhmut.
  • Ukrainian forces have exhausted Wagner forces so much that the Russian military command has sent SPETSNAZ and VDV elements to Bakhmut. Russian Airborne forces began to appear in Bakhmut likely to reinforce conventional, rather than Wagner Group, forces.
  • Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on April 9 and 10. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Avdiivka, Novokalynove (9km north of Avdiivka), Berdychi (7km northwest of Avdiivka), Sieverne (6km west of Avdiivka), Pervomaiske (10km southwest of Avdiivka), Vodyane (6km southwest of Avdiivka), and Marinka. Geolocated footage posted on April 9 shows that Russian forces made a marginal advance in southwestern Marinka.
  • Russian offensive operations are slowing in the Donetsk direction. Russian forces are now shelling at a rate one third less than that of February 2023.
  • Russian forces have concentrated 205 battalion tactical groups in the Donetsk direction out of fear of a Ukrainian counteroffensive. These BTGs are unlikely to be at full strength, however.
  • The russian occupiers continue to increase pressure on Ukrainian citizens in the temporarily occupied territories. Recently, in Snizhny, Donetsk, employees without invader passports were fired.


Above: Zaporizhzhia enjoys a relatively mild riverside climate and lots of sunshine.  It is known for its beautiful flower displays in the spring including allies of pink and white magnolia.  (Zaporizhzhia City News)

  • Russian forces are intensively equipping and mining defensive positions in Zaporizhia Oblast and have concentrated 113 battalion tactical groups in this direction out of fear of a Ukrainian counteroffensive. It is highly unlikely that any of these BTGs are at full strength considering widespread Russian manpower and equipment losses in previous phases of the war.
  • During the day of April 10, Russian troops shelled the Kherson region 56 times using 285 shells. On the night of April 10, Russian troops attacked the center of Kherson with drones.
  • In the city of Energodar, Zaporizhzhia, local residents must obtain permission to move around the Oblast. Those who applied for passes are subject to increased checks by the occupiers for involvement in the defense forces of Ukraine. In some places, the invaders even are searching private residences.

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