Victory Chronicles
-DAY 460

Above: A Kyiv building hit by falling drone fragments shot down by air defense. The weekend’s big news is wave after wave of drone and missile attacks on Kyiv and other cities. Apparently Moscow’s strategy for the coming counteroffensive is to improve Ukraine’s air defenses and make the world hate Russia even more. (BBC)

💔Kyiv. Air raid alert

Explosion after explosion.

Ukrainian schoolchildren are running to a bomb shelter #RussiaIsATerroristState pic.twitter.com/01xjiXO2id

— Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine – Ukrainian Parliament (@ua_parliament) May 29, 2023

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

• We can only wonder what kind of information bunker grandpa gets from his shrinking circle of paranoid advisors.  The tiny dictator congratulated his border guard services on Sunday for their great work to ensure the flow of goods to Russia’s “new subjects”, that is, the illegally occupied territories of Ukraine.  No mention of the Russian Russian expatriate military excursions into Bilhorod last week, when invader border services collapsed like a house of cards in the initial hours of the mini-invasion. 
• US State Secretary Antony Blinken will visit Finland, Sweden and Norway beginning Monday to deepen cooperation on top national security and economic issues. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Finland has joined NATO, with Sweden’s bid to join awaiting ratification from Hungary and Turkey.
• The UK Ministry of Defence assessed that Russia is now demanding that Russian citizens make additional sacrifices to support the war effort, reporting that Russian state media and business groups have petitioned the Ministry of Economy to authorize six-day work weeks for workers without additional pay to satisfy the demands of the wartime industrial complex. A prominent evening news Kremlin propagandist proposed that patriots should work for two extra hours in munitions factories after their daytime jobs.

 

Video: General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: Kharkiv display of destroyed enemy equipment. (New York Times)

 

Above:  Air Force of Ukraine, 29 May, destroyed (37) cruise missiles (K-101/K-555); (29) Shahed 136/131; (1) intelligence drone. The enemy fired (40) cruise missiles from aircraft in the Caspian Sea area; (35) Shahid drones from northern and southern positions. (Ukrainian Air Force)

Above: Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022, with daily additions

ITEM	QTY	▲
Liquidated personnel	207030	+430
Tanks	3801	+4
Armored personnel vehicles	7467	+11
Artillery systems/ MLRS	3435/575	+10/1
Anti-aircraft systems	331	+2
Aircraft/ helicopters	313/298
Unmanned aerial vehicles	3054	+61
Cruise missiles	1056
Warships/ boats	18
Vehicles and fuel tanks	6207	+15
Special equipment	453	+2

 

General Staff on Facebook

Above: Firefighters put out fires at a tobacco factory near Kyiv. The enemy is increasing the frequency and scale of strikes on civilian infrastructure as its panic rises over the coming counteroffensive. Sunday was Kyiv Day to celebrate the 1541st year of Kyiv’s founding.  Overnight, the enemy targeted Kyiv for the 15th time in May.  (BBC)

• The weekend saw some of the largest Iranian-supplied Shahed drone swarms on civilian infrastructure since the start of the full-scale invasion.  Overnight Sunday, Ukraine destroyed 37 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, 29 Shahed-136/131 attack UAVs and 1 reconnaissance UAV. The enemy fired up to 40 X-101/X-555 air-based cruise missiles from nine Tu-95ms strategic aircraft from the Caspian Sea area. From the north and south, the enemy attacked with Iranian about 35 Shahed-136/131 UAVs. 
• Overnight Saturday, Ukrainian forces shot down 58 of 59 drones. ISW assesses, “The Russian allocation of aerial munitions to targeting Kyiv rather than prioritizing infrastructure or military facilities continues to constrain this limited Russian air campaign’s ability to meaningfully degrade Ukrainian offensive capabilities for the upcoming counteroffensive.”  Translation: The Russian soul gets more satisfaction from human suffering than strategic advancement. 

The General Staff summarized attacks on civilians: 

Glory to Ukraine! Day 460 of the russian full-scale military aggression against Ukraine has begun.

• The russian federation disregards its losses as it continues to wage its war of aggression. In violation of International Humanitarian Law, russia launches strikes and shells military and civilian targets alike.
• During the day of May 28, the adversary launched a total of 97x air strikes, including 59x Iranian Shahed combat UAVs. 58x Shaheds were intercepted by Ukrainian defenders. Also, the enemy launched 39x MLRS attacks at the positions of Ukrainian troops and various settlements.
• The likelihood of missile and air strikes across Ukraine remains high.
• The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on attempts to fully occupy Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. During the day of May 28, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 19x enemy attacks.
• Sivershchyna and Slobozhanshchyna axes: During the day of May 28, the invaders launched air strikes in the vicinities of Kindrativka, Basivka, Mohrytsya, Myropillya, Slavhorod (Sumy oblast), Pletenivka, and Vovchans’ki Khutory (Kharkiv oblast). The occupant forces fired mortars and artillery at the settlements of Huta-Studenetska, Karpovychi, Tymonovychi, Zaliznyi Mist, Halahanivka, Murav’i, Khodyne (Chernihiv oblast), Novovasylivka, Seredyna-Buda, Prohres, Dem’yanivka, Manukhivka (Sumy oblast), Lyptsi, Hatyshche, Pletenivka, Vovchans’k, Mala Vovcha, and Budarky (Kharkiv oblast).
• Kup’yans’k axis: Russian forces launched an air strike in the vicinity of Kyslivka (Kharkiv oblast). Kolodyazne, Krasne Pershe, Fyholivka, Novomlyns’k, Dvorichna, Zapadne, Masyutivka, Kyslivka, and Berestove (Kharkiv oblast) came under artillery and mortar fire.
• Lyman axis: The invaders launched air strikes in the vicinities of Yahidne (Kharkiv oblast), Serhiivka, Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast), Ivanivka, Spirne, Rai-Oleksandrivka, Vesele (Donetsk oblast). Nevs’ke, Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast), Tors’ke, Verkhn’okam’yans’ke, and Spirne (Donetsk oblast) were shelled with artillery.
• Bakhmut axis: The invaders launched air strikes in the vicinities of Predtechyne, Bila Hora, Kurdyumivka, New York, Yablunivka (Donetsk oblast). Vasylivka, Pryvillya, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske, Stupochky, Predtechyne, Kostyantynivka and Pivnichne (Donetsk oblast) came under enemy fire.
• Avdiivka axis: The occupant forces launched air strikes in the vicinities of Avdiivka, Vodyane, Pervomais’ke (Donetsk oblast). The invaders fired artillery at the settlements of Avdiivka, Pervomais’ke, and Karlivka (Donetsk oblast).
• Mar’inka axis: The enemy launched an air strike near Mar’inka. At the same time, Pobjeda (Donetsk oblast) was also shelled by the enemy.
• Shakhtars’ke axis: The invaders launched an air strike near Vuhledar. The invaders shelled the settlements of Paraskoviivka, Novomykhailivka Vuhledar, Novoukrainka, Prechystivka, and Shakhtars’ke.
• Zaporizhzhia and Kherson axes: The enemy shelled the settlements of Vremivka, Novopil’ (Donetsk oblast), Ol’hivs’ke, Hulyaipole, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, Orikhiv, Novoandriivka, Mali Shcherbaky, Stepnohirs’k (Zaporizhzhia oblast), Zolota Balka, Mykhailivka, Vesele, Kozats’ke, Mykolaivka, L’vove, Ivanivka, Antonivka, Dniprovs’ke, Kizomys (Kherson oblast), and the city of Kherson.

Above: Map of Ukraine presented to Paris Peace Conference, 1919.  We know that Moscow’s diminutive dictator likes maps, so this one shows Bilhorod is historically Ukraine.  RFERL published a story by Bilohorod eyewitness and journalists that describes how initial enthu-Z-asm for the war has turned to bleak despair, even as the Bilhorod governor calls for annexation of Kharkiv to improve his security situation.   

An improvised Ukrainian remote-controlled demining tractor helps to clear the area in the deoccupied Nova Gusarivka, Kharkiv region. https://t.co/efsqVz9nOW pic.twitter.com/aXwGcvgF9s

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 19, 2023

Above:  Map via ISW

• Russian occupation officials continue to forcibly deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of summer camp programs. Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Military Administration Head Artem Lusohor reported that Russian occupation authorities announced the creation of a vacation summer camp in Russia for Ukrainian children from Russian-occupied Shchastia Raion in Luhansk Oblast.  Russian occupation authorities using children’s camps as a guise to forcibly deport Ukrainian children to Russia.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line on May 28.  Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Masyutivka (13km northeast of Kupyansk) and did not conduct operations in the Kreminna area. Russian forces regularly conduct unsuccessful ground attacks and fire prohibited gas cylinders on Ukrainian positions near Kreminna.

 

Above: A Ukrainian officer sits on a pick-up truck with a missile launcher modification near Kostyantynivka, located on a good highway 22 km west-southwest of Bakhmut. (Washington Post)

Above:  Map showing a large and vulnerable urban corridor just beyond Bakhmut that the enemy has begun to shell more aggressively since the culmination of the Battle of Bakhmut.   

Above:  Maps via ISW

• It’s not surprising that the prima donna Wagner leader extended the deadline for Wagner’s complete withdrawal from Bakhmut by five days, although Ukraine and the Washington Post report that the mercenary and convict fighting force is leaving and being replaced by regular and DNR assets.  Meanwhile, Wagner claimed that Russian media has been banned from covering Wagner pontifications, a decision that will lead to a general uprising.  Analysts are undecided whether Prigozhin’s recent harsh screeds are actually opposed to the Kremlin or a brilliant propaganda performance to set up future blame laying.   
• The tempo of Russian operations around Bakhmut remains notably low. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut), west of Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut), and in the direction of Ivanivske (6k west of Bakhmut).  Geolocated footage published on May 28 indicates that Russian forces made marginal gains west of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).
• Ukrainian personnel in the Bakhmut area expressed optimism that the decreased tempo of Russian operations around Bakhmut may facilitate further limited and localized Ukrainian counterattacks The decreased tempo of Russian offensive operations in the Bakhmut area and the ongoing relief in place operation are likely providing Ukrainian forces in the area the initiative to launch a new round of operations around the city if they so choose. 
• Redeployment of enemy forces from Avdiivka to fill in for Wagner in Bakhmut is reducing the tempo of offensives on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front. Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front on May 28. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Sieverne (6km west of Avdiivka), Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka), and Marinka (27km southwest of Avdiivka).

Above:  A new Kerch Strait Bridge countdown clock has appeared. “We can repeat it. Smoking is bad for your health.  Avoid smoking in unauthorized places.”

• Russian forces continued to fire on areas in southern Ukraine on May 28. Ukrainian forces shot down two Shahed drones over Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts and struck Beryslav, Kherson Oblast, with glide bombs. Russian forces conducted airstrikes against Chervone, Zaporizhia Oblast, and Zmiivka, Kherson Oblast. Russian artillery units conducted 70 fire missions targeting Kherson City and its environs.
• Southern Operational Command reported that the enemy has two missile carriers in the Black Sea with capacity for sixteen Kalibr missiles.  Citizens are urged to take shelter during air raid warnings.   

 

https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth